I have a blog post on this topic up at Midas Oracle. There are also some excellent comments there from readers.
The EU’s survival prospects should be a rich topic for betting and trading, and hence for predictive purposes. However, the design of prediction-market contracts to maximize the attractiveness of the trading proposition in this area requires some thought. Since I want to design, or at least to encourage other people to design, such contracts, I am soliciting ideas. Please feel free to use the forum to share yours.