We let the Saturday/Sunday WSJ opinion pages remain unopened as we have errands to do and our local paper has dispensed with its Sunday edition to deliver its scant weekend advertising edition on Saturday. So this morning I ate my eggs accompanied by a whimpering Peggy Noonan.
She sounds like an out of phase boomer crying “Has anybody here seen my old friend Jeb?” because her Republican party is shattering in her mind. So long has she lived in the comfort of her subservient cocoon that she cannot imagine that the shattering of the chrysalis will allow the emergence of the beautiful and powerful butterfly instead of the inert pupa to which she had become accustomed. Instead the agent of that shattering, Donald Trump, is seen to be destroying the comfort to which she had looked forward in her old age.
I also saw the returns for yesterday’s contests where Cruz won two and narrowed The Donald’s margins in two others while leaving Rubio and Kasich far behind, clutching for straws. We now have the two man race. Bad news for the Donald because he now faces the candidate most likely to reveal the true emptiness of the man behind the curtain. And the candidate most likely to present a clear choice for voters in November.
And on the other side, the Bern won 2 of 3 which will force Hillary to rededicate herself to leftism past which she will, if still free, be forced to defend in the autumn against Cruz painting the future in bold colors.
Who ever became president in 2008 was doomed to preside over 8 terrible economic years. The withdrawal of the boomers from economic productivity into dependent consumerism was inevitably about to begin, our financial institutions were in disarray, and a vibrant China was eating our lunch as had the Japanese in the 1970s and 1980s.
The next president, whoever it is, will face far less difficult prospects. Boomers will continue their decline into consumption, but they will begin to abandon the jobs to which they have so bitterly clung to the X’ers and Millenials who so desperately need them. Our financial institutions, while still unreformed, are stronger than any others in the world. China faces interesting times, and our adversaries in Russia, Arabia and Persia will struggle with the onslaught created by one of the 20th century’s greatest unsung heroes, George P. Mitchell, father of fracking. Who knows, there may be enough wealth to cover Social Security, if not Medicare.
What remains unstated in all of Noonan’s and others’ commentary is that this election has the opportunity to be a revolutionary generational transfer of power. The Donald, having done the prophetic work of Jeremiah, has paved the way for Cruz, the new Josiah, to rediscover the law of old and restore it to guide a new age. An age in which Republicans have an embarrassment of talents and the Democrats none. Should Cruz gain power there is greater than normal reason to expect his redirection of the nation could be sustained simply because of the lack of opposition talent and the gift of fracking. After the last 30 years, we can at least pray for it.
No one can know the future, and there are some reasons why this may not be it, but for this afternoon, I can at least try to remember where I left those sunglasses.
I like the way you think. However, that could mean we are both delusional. Time will tell.
Wonderfully cheerful. Other notes – the advances in medicine, technology, genetics bode well for a more productive and cheerful future. So does what looks like a long-needed revolt in education and credentialing. But that is, of course, ignoring ISIS, demographic shifts which may be good but indicate the future may just have fewer people capable of using and innovating on those advances. But thanks for this. It is nice to see your perspective.
From your lips to God’s ears, as they say. Let’s hope so. I have three children and five (so far) grandchildren and I would like them to have a more hopeful future than has been apparent to me for some time. I would like them to have the opportunity to grow up in a free and prosperous society.
I’m sorry, but… socially, economically, and financially, you are whistling Dixie. We are driving off a goddam cliff.
“The next president, whoever it is, will face far less difficult prospects.”
I wish I thought you were right but I agree with Phil.
Clinton left Bush with the check and Obama will do the same.
Richard Fernandez, as usual, explains it.
The BBC has even published a guide to Libyan militias for its readers. They will need it. There are 2,000 militias in a North African country that hasn’t got a single, unified government. The proliferation of armed groups is not hard to explain. What does a young man do in a place where accounting or computer programming has never been big. For protection, money and status he joins a militia. Ann Marlowe of the Hudson Foundation wrote a memorable piece in the Daily Beast recalling how one young Libyan contact followed the Pied Piper of militia life in the aftermath of the American intervention until he finally died.
Ahmed died fighting for what I regard as a terrible cause, on the side of “Fajr Libya,” the Islamist militias who seized Tripoli in August 2014. …
This young man’s death is part of a uniquely Libyan tragedy. If the Libyan government hadn’t spent 2012-13 funding every militia in sight to the tune of an estimated $2.6 billion, Ahmed would most likely have chosen a different way of life. But Libyan politicians did fund the militias, fearing that otherwise they’d turn against the government. Even when they did turn against the government, they still paid the fighters. …
We aren’t done yet.
But Sherman knew more. He understood that some people would never get a chance to grow up unless they first had a bellyful of war, either at first hand or through cultural tradition. Peter Pan has to be ready to live before he’ll want to. Peace isn’t so bad. It’s just that some never get the chance to find out.
The bellyful of war is still to come for a few years.
I too agree with Phil. The fallacy at the heart of Mrs. Davis’ analysis is to treat the entity of America as a constant across time. Here’s some background on what I mean:
A few years ago when I was investigating the economic costs of diversity on the US economy I read some papers which pegged the cost at about 5% of GDP compared to a model where America had an all white workforce. I suspect that this economic drag is only going to get worse as we move forward into the future. Across our nation, in our schools, the white children of HS drop-out parents who are poor, and thus qualify for subsidized lunch, either perform at par or out-perform the black children of college educated parents who are earning enough to not qualify for subsidized lunch for their children. A typical white 8th grader has the reading sophistication of a typical black 12th grader. In 1950 there were 9 whites in America for every 1 black. In 2010 there were 5.5 whites in America for every 1 black person. So when you talk about the baby boomers retiring, you’re talking about a population cohort which is disproportionately white and their jobs will, over time, be filled with people from generations which are increasingly less white who all share the same credentials but who represent a far greater delta in ability than was seen in earlier generations.
America is it’s people, change the people and you change America.
TangoMan,
I expect that if Cruz is elected, part of what will happen is that there will be far less tolerance for multi-culturalism and much more emphasis on assimilation. I think you currently in the Texas State Museum which acknowledges that Texans come from many backgrounds but they are now all TEXANS. That is very different from Caliphornia and the emphasis the federal government puts on multi-cultural acceptance. I also expect affirmative action to end. Those will be good things for the country in the long run.
It is worth remembering what Ben Franklin had to say of the Germans
And they still worship in German language in these parts, but they can now conduct business in English.
Michael,
I agree that the Middle East has not yet had a bellyful of war. I hope Cruz will be wise enough to all Putin to provide it to them. Frankly, they’re no real threat to the US if they can be prevented from mayhem by the TSA.
Yes there will be a debt to pay, but with Cruz there will be a way forward to stanch the bleeding and address the issue.
Mrs. Davis – I agree with you – I’ve always felt Texas, with its limited welfare and open spaces and “can do”ism – leads to healthy assimilation.
When did you (or do you go often?) to Bullock exhibits? I haven’t for years. I always thought that was true of the exhibits in the San Antonio hall with the great pictures from all over Texas. And Texas pride helps assimilation to reinforce indigenous pride, rubbing off some of the edges of alienation.
But a few years ago, when we went to the opening of Bullock’s showcasing of immigrant groups, I was struck by a rather irritating whininess (it was tough for everyone – that’s what pioneering is). I felt that the Czech one wasn’t so much – but then my husband had a good deal to do with it and besides, well, they have been pretty good at finding the good black land farms and doing something with them – land that a series of real oppressors would have made it difficult for them to own in the old country. (Of course, my mother-in-law often complained that her father was stopped by the Klan from voting – whether it was because he spoke what must have been a strongly inflected English or was Catholic, I’m not sure.) Any new group is going to be seen as the “other.” And they, in turn, will see others, say Anglo-German daughters in law, as “other” as well.
The fallacy at the heart of Mrs. Davis’ analysis is to treat the entity of America as a constant across time.
That reminds of a conversation that Antony had with Vorenus. After entering Rome illegally under Caesar’s XIII Legion, Vorenus resigned his post as Centurian since he felt that what Caesar had done was both illegal and immoral. He no longer wanted any part of it.
Antony: ‘Life is water, not stone.’ https://youtu.be/6kPn07dzJEE
part of what will happen is that there will be far less tolerance for multi-culturalism and much more emphasis on assimilation.
You mean like what didn’t happen under the last Republican President? Cruz, and Rubio for that matter, are perfectly situated to change the tone of the conversation, to argue that Hispanics must shed their Cuban, Mexican, Honduran, etc identities and customs and fully embrace American identity, to renounce Hispanic privilege under law, etc but I’ve not heard either of them do so, in fact, Rubio is fully on board with the multicultural cult, going so far as to take pride in that photo where he stood with Scott and Haley. Cruz hasn’t been that over-the-top but he’s, to the best of my knowledge, never repudiated multiculturalism and never acknowledged that diversity is our weakness rather than our strength. If my impression of him is correct, then I see no basis on which to believe that what you argue will indeed come to pass.
I think you currently in the Texas State Museum which acknowledges that Texans come from many backgrounds but they are now all TEXANS.
This is agitprop. Slogans. While the culture may not be as cancerous as what’s going on in California, keep in mind that it is the University of Texas which is arguing before the Supreme Court for the right to grant admission preferences to the children of Hispanic PROFESSIONALS who are outscored by the children of white lower class residents of Texas. The children of privilege who come from Hispanic backgrounds need Affirmative Action against the children of poverty born to white parents. That’s obscene and it’s coming from Texas. As go California and Texas, so will go the rest of the nation.
I also expect affirmative action to end.
It will never end. The beneficiaries are now too powerful of an interest group, comprising 30%+ of the nation. To end affirmative action would result in a caste-based society.
I’ve always felt Texas, with its limited welfare and open spaces and “can do”ism – leads to healthy assimilation.
What is the source of this can-do ism? Is it the air in Texas? The water that Texans drink? America also used to have a can-do ism, that was when America was filled with settlers and pioneers and their children and we had vast open spaces to tame, and we were united by race and culture and no safety net provided by the state. There were no food stamps for those who opened up the frontier. That’s all been washed away. The past is another country. You need look no further than all the white liberals voting for Bernie. There’s a combination of a sickness in the soul of white liberals and a desire to milk the system from their minority partners. The proportion of the population which exhibits that can-do spirit is declining rapidly due to both cultural rot and demographic transformation. As Texas heads towards a 3rd world future, that can-do spirit is going to be found mostly in old-age homes.
My daughter and son-in-law lived in Austin and Brenham for four years. We visited Austin twice. I fear my failing memory does not recall the Bullock exhibits. But I have always imagined the fourth graders leaving that theater after the thunderstorm and snakes and all the pioneers, thinking, my ancestors helped build Texas. I’m a Texan. Too little of that today elsewhere. But in Texas everyone was a pioneer, all faced challenges, none were victims, all are Texans. Almost made me proud to be a Yankee.
This is agitprop.
For the cynical. For the fourth grader it is truth. For the adult it is myth. But it is a goal all share unlike agitprop which is merely a lie cynics decry.
It will never end. The beneficiaries are now too powerful of an interest group, comprising 30%+ of the nation.
I’ll bet 20 years ago you thought there’d never be state sanctioned homosexual marriage.
To end affirmative action would result in a caste-based society.
That’s a non-sequitur that underestimates the dynamism of American culture.
“referred to Miami, Florida, as a “Third World” city. ”
I don’t know about the city but the airport is sure third world.
My best friend in medical school was the son of Mexican immigrants, legal or illegal I don’t know. His mother never learned to speak English and made her own tortillas.
He was one of, I believe, ten siblings. The oldest died young in an industrial accident. The others all had college degrees, about half of them with graduate degrees.
His father had a wrought iron business in east LA.
I think the Mexican immigrants changed. That was 1962 and he had entered Stanford in 1956 like I did. He had worked as a lab tech while in college.
The recent immigrants are illiterate even in Spanish and many speak languages other then Spanish. It’s a different population and I see no effort at assimilation.
I will say that about 30% of our military recruits in LA are Hispanic and all have good to excellent language skills. Their ASVB scores are mostly rather low but they want to better themselves.
That’s a non-sequitur that underestimates the dynamism of American culture.
What “American culture?” When you change the people, you change the culture. Culture is primarily transmitted from parent to child.
Allow me to add some nuance to what I wrote above. I know a man born in Eastern Europe who came to America as a child. He’s almost totally divorced from his heritage and has instead adopted English-American, Colonial-American culture as his own. He’s a fanatic about studying the history of Early America. He sees George Washington as his own, he feels that “his people” are the early settlers of America. They’re not, his people were in Eastern Europe, in their villages and towns, for centuries while America was developing. His people are actually still back in the old country. He’s rapidly losing touch with his people because he’s chosen to adopt a new “his people” as his own, the people who arrived in America and laid the foundation for what was to come.
I also know a few guys who’ve arrived here from Africa, to a man, each of them feels oppressed, feels the chains of Jim Crow, feels the Black Lives Matter nonsense speaks to them directly. Not one of them identifies with the historical figures of Colonial America, those historical figures don’t represent them they instead identify with the plight of the slaves. They’re either supporters of reparations or neutral to the topic, not one outright rejects that argument.
All of these folks are immigrants, so why is it that immigrants from Africa are not identifying with the historical figures who created America? Come to think of it, I don’t see much evidence in my travels of Hispanic-American or African-Americans being enthusiastic history buffs and trying to keep alive the ties to the past as I see with white Americans and European immigrants to America. What I see instead is a concerted effort in Texas to reform the history curriculum to incorporate more Hispanic figures, none of whom has any historical importance because they were such minor figures in the events that transpired. What I see is a rewriting of history designed to show more Mexican influence and an inflation of stature for those minor figures.
What could be the root cause of this bifurcation? Hmm. I’m going to have to think about that.
I’ll bet 20 years ago you thought there’d never be state sanctioned homosexual marriage.
A minority group working in its own self-interest will always demonstrate greater devotion to a revolution than the less interested and less involved majority. Who is going to fight the fiercest with regard to Affirmative Action, those who depend on it or those who see it as an ideological irritant? Here’s a demonstration of how dependent minorities are on AA:
I’m loaded for bear with statistical evidence if you really want me to expand on this position. If we remove AA then we’re going to end up with a fuzzy boundary racial caste system. For instance, using the data above, only 80 blacks qualified for merit-based admission to UCLA out of an entering class of 4,800. That’s an intolerable outcome for blacks and Hispanics too.
As the nation gets more non-white, the reach of AA will expand. It’s already incorporated into Dodd-Frank and into parts of ObamaCare. That can-do spirit in historical America culture is being replaced with equal representation theatrics in present-day and future-day American culture. Moreover, the fetish that universities have for diversity is shaping the composition of our elites. They become elite, in large part, due to passing through elite institutions and picking up the right credentials and connections. As our society devalues merit and accomplishment and instead focuses on fostering diversity, the outcomes produced by our elites will diminish because many of them will be in the elite decision making class for non-meritorious reasons. We already see signs of dysfunction in how our elites conduct themselves – failing upwards is a common feature of elite life in America and this is not producing optimal results for society. Just last week the USAF General in charge of the Thunderbirds flight demonstration team put out a memo to his subordinates tasking them with recruiting more diverse pilots onto the team. The head of West Point was claiming that diversity was the principal concern of his administration. These actions are not indicative of a can-do spirit in America. Look at Apple, Inc., they’ve done well in developing new consumer markets with innovative products and instead of being celebrated for their accomplishment they’re taken to task for not having enough diversity in their workforce and they now have embarked on an effort to pad their numbers so as to squelch such criticism in the future. Padding the numbers is going to result in a decrease in employee efficiency, hence a decrease in profitability.
I will say that about 30% of our military recruits in LA are Hispanic and all have good to excellent language skills. Their ASVB scores are mostly rather low but they want to better themselves.
You’re dealing with selection bias. You’re not seeing the pool who take the test, you’re seeing the pool who do well enough on the test.
The problem is not with any specific ethnic group. America and our culture has always been strong enough to accept and absorb any people from anywhere in the world. The reason that is the case was all laid out in The Anglosphere Challenge and America 3.0.
The real problem has been the Wilsonian welfare state which has recently prevented some immigrant minorities from assimilating. It is un-American and destroying American culture.
The real problem has been the Wilsonian welfare state which has recently prevented some immigrant minorities from assimilating. It is un-American and destroying American culture.
I’m not disagreeing on the issue of the welfare state, but you have a weak thesis with respect to your argument about ethnic groups. You seem to be looking back at historical trends, which were applied to European immigrants to America, and claiming that the model is universally successful.
European immigrants came to America, they were poor, they made something of themselves without the aid of the welfare state and they made America great. Unmentioned is that the Europeans who stayed behind in Europe, many of whom were poor, lived under societies which got an earlier start on welfare state experiments, and despite the presence and influence of those high-cost, high-sharing governments, those Europeans built some pretty fine societies for themselves.
Meanwhile, all across the 3rd world we see wrecked societies controlled by the people who inhabit the societies. There were no welfare states there, so we can test your proposition that welfare statism is an inhibitor of societal development. Somalia should be a paradise due to its lack of welfare state. Clearly that’s not what we see. We can also test your thesis by looking at groups in America today who climb the socioeconomic ladder despite the presence of the welfare state, Asians being the prime example.
Look, I can train my dog to do tricks but just because I’ve proven that humans can train animals to do tricks doesn’t mean that I can train my cat or my rabbit to do tricks. The model isn’t generalizable. Same with your argument based on evidence drawn from European migration, that model only applies to Europeans and even there it’s kind of muddy, for it doesn’t explain how Swedes in Sweden, with their fetish for high cost, high sharing government, managed to build developed societies.
“you’re seeing the pool who do well enough on the test.”
Oh, I know but it still indicates the situation.
‘Life is water, not stone’
This sounds like it was taken from the Greek philosopher Heraclitus’ saying, ‘you never step into the same river twice.’
Heraclitus belived reality was created from the interactions of nature, there was a continuum that included the world of changes and the material world, and the soul and body were one.
This is contrasted with Pythagoras, who Heraclitus called a fraud. Pythagoras believed in discreet elements of reality. All reality came into existence from limitations not unity. Being is limitation, and the simplist limitations are numbers. Therefore the soul and body are separate.
Oh, I know but it still indicates the situation.
Athletic teams and the military have pretty good cross-racial social cohesion because the people on the inside are there by having passed through a form of merit-focused gatekeeping. What they see is a fairly tight delta in ability. What they don’t see is the differential failure rates and the characteristics of those who didn’t pass. This skews their perception of the world.
Same applies to our upper-class. They work around nice Muslims, nice black people, nice Hispanic people, nice Asian people. Everyone is intelligent, well spoken, well behaved. What the hell is the problem with those mouth-breathers out in the rest of society, why are they so bigoted?
The first rule that should be taught in public analysis is “not everyone thinks like me, so I really shouldn’t rely on my own perceptions to guide me in public policy.”
Going back to your earlier comments you indicate that you’re seeing the problem and the differences between the recruits who make the cut and the broader population, so I’m not really taking any issue with anything that you wrote.
Peggy Noonan wrote a column more than a decade ago that I’ve always remembered and that could have been written today, about everything falling apart.
https://books.google.com/books?id=k2PkBgAAQBAJ&pg=PT419&lpg=PT419#v=onepage&q&f=false
Then somehow she fell in love with a Chicago machine hack and only now is barely getting back to where she was back then.
“I think that a lot of people are carrying around in their heads, unarticulated and even in some cases unnoticed, a sense that the wheels are coming off the trolley and the trolley off the tracks. That in some deep and fundamental way things have broken down and can’t be fixed, or won’t be fixed any time soon. That our pollsters are preoccupied with “right track” and “wrong track” but missing the number of people who think the answer to “How are things going in America?” is “Off the tracks and hurtling forward, toward an unknown destination.”
…
A few weeks ago I was reading Christopher Lawford’s lovely, candid and affectionate remembrance of growing up in a particular time and place with a particular family, the Kennedys, circa roughly 1950-2000. It’s called “Symptoms of Withdrawal.”
At the end he quotes his Uncle Teddy. Christopher, Ted Kennedy and a few family members had gathered one night and were having a drink in Mr. Lawford’s mother’s apartment in Manhattan. Teddy was expansive. If he hadn’t gone into politics he would have been an opera singer, he told them, and visited small Italian villages and had pasta every day for lunch. “Singing at la Scala in front of three thousand people throwing flowers at you. Then going out for dinner and having more pasta.” Everyone was laughing.
Then, writes Mr. Lawford, Teddy “took a long, slow gulp of his vodka and tonic, thought for a moment, and changed tack. ‘I’m glad I’m not going to be around when you guys are my age.’ I asked him why, and he said, ‘Because when you guys are my age, the whole thing is going to fall apart.’ “
Then, writes Mr. Lawford, Teddy “took a long, slow gulp of his vodka and tonic, thought for a moment, and changed tack. ‘I’m glad I’m not going to be around when you guys are my age.’ I asked him why, and he said, ‘Because when you guys are my age, the whole thing is going to fall apart.’ “
DUE TO HIM.
Sunglasses. You’re right. I put mine aside in October and now I need them, where the devil are they?
“They work around nice Muslims, nice black people, nice Hispanic people, nice Asian people. ”
Oh yes and you’re thinking it can’t be that bad out there but I think about the “sudden jihad” cases.
The people I really feel sorry for are the black folks in Chicago who would like to have a nice life, I met the guy who owns the house I grew up in. He saw me taking a photo of it and came out to see who I was. He insisted I tour the house and then asked me if I could send some photos of it when we lived there. I could feel his longing for what we had but that is long ago. I have black neighbors in “lily white” Orange County. They get that we are all happy they are here and participating in life as we think it should be. Some of them are Little League coaches. We have quite a few professional athletes who live around here.
The BLM kids seem to be privileged kids who resent the fact that they are black and we are white. They have no connection with that guy in Chicago. The Rev Wright’s congregation that Obama was part of are all upper middle class and above. They are eaten up with resentment.
I don’t know the solution but I am pretty sure what we have been doing for 25 years isn’t it. Hence Trump.
I have black neighbors in “lily white” Orange County. They get that we are all happy they are here and participating in life as we think it should be. Some of them are Little League coaches. We have quite a few professional athletes who live around here.
In the nice upper class neighborhood I used to live in we had a nice upper class black family a few houses away. Everything was peachy keen while their kids were young but when their boy got into his early teens, fell in with black middle class and lower class kids, then we began seeing police cars occasionally because of the disruptions their boy’s friends brought to the neighborhood. The boy was eventually arrested for dealing crack in his school. There was no lack of money involved.
I recount this story because it illustrates a problem – multigenerational professional black families will tend to have a smaller network of relatives and friends who are disruptive, but first generation professionals have a harder time escaping the social dysfunction of their poorer relatives and they drag that social dysfunction into their new social environment. This is keenly seen with professional athletes.
The BLM kids seem to be privileged kids who resent the fact that they are black and we are white.
How would you feel coming from a privileged background and then being outperformed by white kids from non-privileged backgrounds? That’s a tough reality to have to face.
My observations in Chicago and the Chicagoland area are that by the second or third generation they’ve attained a decent social and educational level to live a middle class or above economic level. Then, if they haven’t already, they usually move either to the south suburbs or the South – Atlanta, Memphis, Baton Rouge, etc. It’s like a reverse Great Migration going on right now.
The few random areas that are becoming trendy and gentrifying are filling with young, secular, childless whites. Middle class blacks, on the other hand, are religious and maintain family ties on a level higher than the general population. The two are really like oil and water.