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SARS-CoV2/COVID-19 Evening Update 2/24/2020 — Public Health Institution Credibility Collapse Proceeds A-Pace
The themes of this update will be on issues of COVID-19 spread, public health institutional messaging credibility, and my personal analysis of same, and finally China’s honking of Pres Trump after the top line infection numbers and headlines.
Top line, There are currently 79,774 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide, including 2,628 fatalities as of the 24 February 2020 at 5:24 p.m. ET time hack on the BNO News corona virus traking site (https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-
coronavirus-cases/) China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Italy, Iran and R.O.K. all appear to have local, or endemic, spread of the disease. Italy, ROK and probably Iran have exponential growth in progress. Singapore has it’s infections seemingly under control. The Chinese reported numbers indicate increasing control…but few believe them. The USA reports a large increase in COVID-19 cases and a pathetic number of COVID-19 tests being conducted.
World Summary Headlines:
o Stocks slide as CDC releases new US case numbers [More later]
o Italy reports 7th death, 200+ confirmed cases [More later]
o Spain reports 3rd case
o WHO says outbreak not yet a ‘pandemic’ [More later]
o WH reportedly considering expulsion of Chinese journalists in retaliation for WSJ reporters
o US consulate in Milan temporarily halts visas
o California has 8,000 under ‘self-imposed quarantine’
o CDC warns Americans against travel to South Korea [no S–t!]
o Italian finance minister suspends tax payments in virus-hit areas
o First cases reported in Oman, Bahrain
o WHO kowtows to China in statement [more later]
o Wuhan issues order to loosen lockdown, then U-turns
o NHC says outbreak is fading, though situation remains “grim”
o 2 new cases confirmed in Canada
o China approves crackdown on wildlife trade after WHO says virus likely came from bats
o Iranian lawmaker says more than 50 deaths in Qom; officials say 12
o Hong Kong bars South Koreans [But allows Mainland Chinese in?!?]
o More cases reported in SK
First — After days of showing little or no infection growth, the CDC confirmed 18 new cases in the US, including two that were non-Diamond Princess related, bringing the number of US infected to 53 on Monday 2/24/2020.
Coronavirus Live Updates: Confirmed Cases in US Rises to 53
This might not have spooked markets too badly save that;
1) Social media feeds pointed out the relative performance of the CDC testing with that of China and South Korea/ROK. China has performed nearly 200,000 tests. South Korea has performed nearly 28,000 tests. The CDC has performed just 414 tests and has little or no capacity to perform more. CDC numbers have been updated from 414 tests from Jan 29-Feb 21 (an appallingly poor throughput of 17 tests per day) to to a larger 426 number for tests from Jan 21-Feb 24 (an even more appallingly poor throughput of 16 tests per day). And ,
2) Doctor Nancy Messonnier, the Director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Disease, and sister of Rod Rosenstein, former high level Dept. of Justice official involved in the approval of spying upon candidate and later President Trump, was caught out lying about how badly the COVID-19 situation in the USA deteriorated.
CDC lying on COVID-19 severity in the USA documented in social media.
Second — Iran has been confirmed to have slimed the following list of nations in the last two days: on 2/23 Canada and Lebanon; today 2/24 Iraq, Afghanistan, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain. Pakistan, Turkey, Armenia closed their Iranian land border, Afghanistan bans travel over coronavirus fears. The UAE, Qatar and Kuwait are taking neither planes nor sea traffic from Iran (officially, smuggling seems unimpaired) There was also huge row between Iran’s Health Minister a representative from Qom who sated there were 50 deaths in his city compared to 12 reported in Tehran.
The BBC has also reported they believe the initial Italian cluster started with a person who traveled from Iran and had no China travel. Also believe COVID-19 is widespread in Iran and Iran is hiding their numbers playing the “nothing to see here” game.
Dr. John Campbell, a major YouTube medical video blogger, says he received a direct email this morning from Iranian nationals quoting: “Tehran situation is terrible with reports of deaths by the hour.” He added that it’s from a contact in Iran and he has no way to verify that, but he knows who they are and don’t believe they are lying. He also says that there’s no real doubt that there’s a huge outbreak in Iran.
Monday morning news
Feb 24, 2020
Third — Italy is in exponential growth and is shutting down large portions of Northern Italy. See/listen to the following:
Steve Bannon and Jack Maxey are joined in studio by Curtis Ellis to discuss the shutdown of Italy. Calling in is Maria Luisa Rossi Hawkins to highlight the situation on the ground in Italy. Also calling in is Christopher Balding to discuss the microeconomics of China and the virus.
EU just shut down train traffic between Italy and Austria….
Fourth — WHO New Conference high points (Various sources)
[My comments in these]
On severity: most patients are mild cases.
80% are mild.
Death rate 3-4% nationally.
Death rate outside Wuhan: 0.7%. [ROK, Iran and Italy numbers do not match this 0.7%]
From symptoms to confirmed, lowered from 12 days in early Jan to 3 days now.
For Wuhan, 15 to 5 days. Evidence diagnosis ability has improved…
Average recovery time: 2 weeks for mild cases from onset to recovered. 3-6 weeks for severe cases.
[Message Avoided Note: A Chinese study I’ve read said 80% of deaths have been for those aged 60(+). This is spread
demographically thus — 60’s at 30% mortality, 70’s at 30% mortality and 80(+) year old at 20% of total mortality.]
Here are a the rest of the WHO’s “messaging” of the “Key findings” on the nature of the virus:
o No mutations have been discovered in any of the more than 100 patients whose virus samples were subjected to genome
sequencing. [Researchers around the world have warned of evidence of mutation]
o Average age is 51 years, age range primarily 30-59 years old, 70% of cases from Hubei [Note: 80% of deaths are for 60(+) year olds]
o Bat is the host, and pangolin might be one of the ‘intermediate host’ – but research is ongoing. [Checks out in most studies]
o There is risk of fecal-oral transmission, but this is not the major way of transmission in China – once again research is ongoing
[Put Fomite threat here. Public restrooms will be a problem]
o Cluster cases observed in two provinces were mostly observed in families [This seems an attempt to avoid/deflect attention from “super spreaders”]
o That ‘secondary infections’ mostly occurred in families, not communities, shows ‘effectiveness’ of China’s approach [Big grain of salt here. WHO has a major conflict of interest here as a major portion of its budget from China]
o Virus is a new pathogen that is age indifferent; public is ‘universally suspectible’ [Virgin fields infection, check]
o Most early cases had association with seafood market where zoonomic transmission first occurred [Recent Chinese studies say otherwise]
o Decline of new confirmed cases and onsets since lockdown began [Big grain of salt here. WHO has a major conflict of interest here as a major portion of its budget from China]
There was a major set-to between the Trump administration and China. The press reported about the expulsion of three Wall Street journal reporters by China and a tit for tat expulsion of three Chinese reporters.
The “Non-News” was China not only out export restrictions on N95 Face Masks. China then nationalized a US Factory that Produces them in China. This is amounts to an act of war in a pandemic.
This Chinese action appears to be one of the subjects of the secret briefing on COVID-19 the Trump Administration will soon give to Congress of a pending $1 billion emergency budget request on the Pandemic.