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  • Random Covid Related Thought

    Posted by Dan from Madison on April 15th, 2020 (All posts by )

    I’m guessing that the overall deaths in the USA will be down this year compared to previous years. My line of reasoning is that all of the social distancing and hand washing and soaking ourselves in sanitizer will shut down the regular flu to such an extent that those lack of fatalities and related issues will far overcome any Covid related deaths.

     

    24 Responses to “Random Covid Related Thought”

    1. Jonathan Says:

      I’m guessing you are right.

    2. Brian Says:

      Flu season was already basically over. You can see that very clearly in the NYC data, and presumably everywhere else, though the NYC data is most famously easily available online.

      You still may possibly be right in your overall prediction. I’m not an expert in various public health issues to know for sure, but it won’t be because of flu.

      But what’s the “…and therefore” conclusion you want us to draw? That if we take these massive actions overall death rates might be either roughly flat, or perhaps even slightly down? And therefore we shouldn’t have done them? Because that’s not logical at all. So is there something you want us to conclude?

    3. Dan from Madison Says:

      “Flu season was already basically over.” Not where I’m from. This is based on purely anecdotal evidence, so I know I’m right.

      There is no “…and therefore”. I’m just sayin’.

    4. Brian Says:

      In NYC it was over. Published data shows it.

    5. Dan from Madison Says:

      Well, if it’s published, that’s that, I guess.

    6. Mike Doughty Says:

      Dan, FWIW, Real Clear Politics shows a running total of WuFlu deaths and the 10 year average flu death totals by State. They’re kinda all over the place. Ex….NY has WuFlu deaths of 11,586 vs. flu average deaths of 2408. Texas has 364 WuFlu vs. flu 2413. Wisconsin has 170 WuFlu vs. flu 762. All States but 4 currently have less WuFlu deaths than than their 10 year flu average. I think it’s too early to draw any conclusions from this. Personally, I think that if it wasn’t time to concentrate of the most vulnerable populations before now, we should move to that strategy immediately. I haven’t seen any definitive breakdown on ages of the dead, but IMO it seems clear that it’s largely old people who are dying and that’s where the focus should be, not the general population.

      https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/country/united-states/

    7. Brian Says:

      I’m pretty conservative, but man oh man so many conservatives have shown themselves to be nothing but complete and total contrarian idiots these last 3 months. It’s d@mn depressing.

    8. Grurray Says:

      According to the CDC, flu remains elevated in Wisconsin

      https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

      They count 24,000 deceased nationwide so far this year. Keep in mind those are “influenza-associated deaths”. Not deaths from the influenza virus per se but statistical associations in mathematical models. That seems a little low compared to headline numbers from past flu seasons, but who can really be sure?

      Interestingly, they say “influenza-like-illness” is way up, but probably because many more people are reporting symptoms to their doctor through virtual exams and telemedicine.

    9. Mike K Says:

      man oh man so many conservatives have shown themselves to be nothing but complete and total contrarian idiots

      I don’t know what this means. Is it because some of us want to get the economy going soon ? I am a very high risk because of age and some chronic lung troubles non-smoking related. My wife has a form of immunodeficiency. I go shopping, wash my hands, she does not go out or into stores.

      It is easy for us to self quarantine. We live in a low risk state but there are a lot of low income people in Tucson who are out of work and in trouble.

      Some businesses will have trouble, getting back. Movie theaters have a problem and so do airplanes.

      Many restaurants here have outdoor seating areas which could be used. I haven’t been to the car wash but it should be open.

      These are employers of people with very little ability to get by without paychecks.

    10. Sgt. Mom Says:

      Indeed. Movie theaters have a big, big problem. So does airplane travel. And sports venues. But car washes? Public parks, anent wall-to-wall crowds? Small businesses, with just a trickle of daily customers? Going out of your house, just enjoying the mild spring in the streets of your neighborhood? Restaurants with outdoor seating?

    11. Dan from Madison Says:

      I figured that the flu wasn’t quite done in Wisconsin. It will be far less this Fall I am sure with everyone socially distancing and using sanitizer.

    12. Gavin Longmuir Says:

      “I’m guessing that the overall deaths in the USA will be down this year compared to previous years.”

      Overall deaths is the only metric we can really trust. There are now too many political pressures on doctors to write C-19 on death certificates. We could be getting overall deaths data in real time — if the Powers That Be wanted to spend the effort & money to provide it. But they don’t have any interest in letting us see it. Draw your own conclusions.

      There is preliminary data from the UK suggesting that non-C-19-related deaths are climbing. Measurable events like people going to Emergency Rooms have dropped. Speculation is that people with “ordinary” medical emergencies like heart attacks & strokes are avoiding going to hospital because of fear of C-19 — and end up dying unnecessarily.

      Traffic accident deaths will decline because of the lockdowns. On the other hand, suicides will increase among people thrown out of work. Since most of the people who die from C-19 are old & sick, it is likely that many C-19 deaths are simply accelerating the inevitable by a few weeks or months, and will have no effect on overall 2020 death counts. Lots of different factors at work. It is unfortunate that we will not be allowed to see the impacts until overall deaths data is eventually released — maybe next year.

    13. Tom Holsinger Says:

      The longer the shut-down lasts, the less accidental fatalities there will be compared to past years.

    14. Grurray Says:

      Drive-in theaters and drive-in restaurants will make a comeback. Milk delivery service may be another. I can’t think of any other 1950s business concepts offhand, but I’m sure there are others we’ll be seeing.

    15. Mrs. Davis Says:

      The random (and I emphasize random) covid related thought I’m having is the Anglosphere. With the UK’s imminent departure from the EU, the coming decoupling of economic relations of the UK and US from China and the recovery of Boris Johnson, could there be a more propitious time for the emergence of an Anglospheric bloc?

    16. MCS Says:

      I can’t remember the last time I bought gas for less than $1.50, the irony is; that then I wasn’t in the oil business, now I am.

      I would go farther than Mrs. Davis for a freedom-sphere. While we have differences with the EU, they are nowhere near as important as with what I propose to call the black-sphere. The other possible members would take more consideration. In true ugly-American tradition, I’ll even point out that most of the world now speaks English, at least after a fashion.

    17. miguel cervantes Says:

      Good news everybody, sarc,

      https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/midwest-governors-form-covid-coalition

    18. Subotai Bahadur Says:

      miguel cervantes Says:
      April 16th, 2020 at 1:35 pm

      Wo3 de5 ma1 he2 ta1 de5 feng1kuang2 de5 wai4sheng5 dou1

      Based on their actions in the last week or so, and I note that this group of governors is bipartisan, there has not been such a blatant conspiracy against the Constitution since 1861. Be afraid, be very afraid.

      Subotai Bahadur

    19. raven Says:

      subotai- yes, and the west coast is doing the same -CA, OR, WA. One big commie power orgy.

      I don’t know where I read or heard this, but it bears a quick thought-
      The people really being hurt by this are the wage workers and small business- the government workers and related are mostly all getting paid anyway- so for some, it is a wrenching loss of income with all the attendant misery, and for others, it is a extra paid vacation.
      So what we are seeing is essentially class warfare.

    20. MCS Says:

      Here’s a data point:
      https://gcaptain.com/aircraft-carrier-outbreak-could-hold-clue-to-coronavirus-spread/

      To summarize: 4,500 sailors tested out of 4800 (94%), 13% infected (600 out of 4,500), 60% of positive tests with no symptoms in a very confined population. One dead, Five hospitalized.

      Here again, the dog that didn’t bark is ignored. That’s the 87% that aren’t infected that by rights, should have been. At the present time, it’s impossible to tell if any of the 87% were infected and recovered without symptoms or if they never contracted it at all. As crowded as they are, sharing bunk rooms, messes and heads, it’s hard to see how any significant number avoided exposure if 13% were.

      This looks like a replay of the cruise ships.

      If 80+% are naturally resistant, they will never develop antibodies, and so this brave new world of testing to see if you can go back to work will never get off the ground.

      As usual, the media, politicians and experts are about a month behind because the testing was of the wrong people for the wrong reason. Testing symptomatic individuals may have made them feel better but it provided no useful information to the people that decided to cast us into the second Great Depression in a hundred years and they’re still floundering around in the illusion that prolonging this is going to do anything more than deepen the wound.

      Now various Governors are competing to see who can keep the lockdown on the longest to prove that they’re the most cautious. By the time they finally realize all the revenue they’ve lost, the federal treasury will be empty.

    21. Helian Says:

      I’m guessing Dan’s prediction isn’t entirely irrational, although the possibility that the recent mid-April blizzards in Wisconsin have left him a bit delirious shouldn’t be discounted entirely.

    22. Rich Rostrom Says:

      “I’m guessing that the overall deaths in the USA will be down this year compared to previous years.”

    23. Rich Rostrom Says:

      “I’m guessing that the overall deaths in the USA will be down this year compared to previous years.”

      ISTR reading that the US KIAs in the Gulf War were significantly offset by fewer accidental deaths among military personnel stationed in Saudi Arabia where alcohol was not available.

    24. Dan from Madison Says:

      “I’m guessing Dan’s prediction isn’t entirely irrational, although the possibility that the recent mid-April blizzards in Wisconsin have left him a bit delirious shouldn’t be discounted entirely.” Missed us by *that* much. For once. Although we are used to the April snow – Winter’s last kick in the pants we call it. Happens just about every year.