And in other places, like New York. I must confess to snickering nastily at New Yorker’s response to Mayor OBlah-blah’s unveiling of a system to nark out your neighbors for not obeying every jot and tittle of the Wuhan Corona-crud restrictions. Said system was immediately swamped in an unstoppable rising tide of rude pictures, pictures of rude gestures, and sarcastic references to Hitler, as well as crude personal jibes regarding the Mayor himself – to the point where the system was taken down entirely. Well, good for New Yorkers, I say – and a very good thing that such a thing wasn’t tried in a Texas city; seriously, the receiving server would have melted down into a radioactive puddle of goo. And California skateboarders industriously clearing out their skate-park of the sand dumped into it by officious authorities and making a dirt-bike track out of the excess sand? That’s just freaking awesome. We have not forgotten how to cock a snook at overweening authority; a tradition has been passed on to a new generation…
Also, some anonymous street artist in Atlanta is going around – according to this report – fixing clever Winnie-the-Flu plaques here and there, with the local lovvies predictably going nuts over the supposed raaaaacism of it all? That’s just delicious. Liberal tears sprinkled over dark chocolate irony… Kudos: I guess that Sabo has inspired conservative artists in far remote places. The absolute stone-hard irony of commenters with an assure paycheck and ability to work comfortably from home hysterically condemning the pro-back-to-work demonstrators as Nazis, KKK-symps, and paid demonstrators … well, that just busts my irony-meter all to heck. I suppose that I shall have to send it out to be recalibrated. Yeah, I saw as a Tea Partier. SSDD. (Translation: Same S*hit, Different Day.) Yes, dear and lazy Establishment Media Creatures – I saw this all before. Break out the box of ‘names to call us’ rather than deal with the real concerns. Because full frontal face-to-face with those concerns might mean having to examine them SERIOUSLY. And that just can’t happen, because … oh, our media locus of empire is in New York City. A place which appears to live on a different plane, far above those petty local doings in that mysterious fly-over country beyond the Hudson River.
There may be many Americans wanting to go all anonymously-Stasi informant on their neighbors if they can do so without risking the snitches-stitches thing, it remains that no one really likes a tattle tale, even less an anonymous tattle tale. It also appears that toleration for the extreme lockdowns of ordinary citizens is beginning to fray, especially as we begin to note that in all but a handful of cities (like, ahem, New York) they are just not stacking up the bodies twelve-deep in morgues and mass graves. We have also noticed that large parts of the country are barely scathed by the Wuhan Corona-Crud, especially those parts where citizens live fairly remotely from their nearest neighbors, not cheek-by-jowl in stack-a-prole concrete apartment blocks, and/or dependent on public transport of the crammed-in-like-sardines variety. (Like, ahem, New York). We have also noticed that a good few of those persons diagnosed with, or having had the Wuhan Corona Crud, are recovering nicely, or perhaps didn’t even notice they were sick with it at all. We have also noticed that certain of our political and media nobility do not feel the least obliged to abide by the restrictions they have laid on everyone else: Governor Northam of Virginia retires to his undoubtably comfortable country cottage, the mayor of Chicago is perfectly fine with getting the hair styling she has forbidden to everyone else, “Fredo” Cuomo is abusive to a stray citizen calling him out on his unnecessary trip to the prospective country house, and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi comforts herself publicly with a display of a huge selection of expensive gourmet ice cream stashed in a refrigerator unit, which when taken into consideration with it’s matched pair, cost about a quarter of the price of my house when I bought it in 1995. (current tax evaluation puts San Fran Nan’s refrigerators at about a sixth of my houses’ value, even if the house is twenty-five years older. I’ve made improvements, ‘kay?)
So rules for me, and not for thee. Noted. Also noted are the various police and sheriff units making it plain that they will absolutely not go nuts in enforcing the social distancing and mask laws. A standard has been set for sanity in an insane time, which is good. The saner and more thoughtful police chiefs and the forces they command absolutely must realize that authority must be wielded with a delicate hand. The thought comes to me that those of the more sensible constabulary are those who are elected to their law-enforcement office.
Your thoughts – how much longer with the serious Wuhan Corona-Crud lockdowns last? Your thoughts and insights invited.
Thing that is worrying me is that geographies are not totally separate, because travel exists. Under the condition of no vaccine and no or limited herd immunity, it seems possible that very dense transit-dependent cities such as NYC are going to have big problems for a long time.
The question is how transmissible this problem will be to other cities–there is probably not much direct travel from NYC to Possum Creek, GA…but if there is travel from NYC to Atlanta, and travel from Atlanta to Possum Creek, then there is a continuing path for possible infection.
Here is the IHME model with state-by-state estimates for date of safely relaxing social distancing:
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
I couldn’t tell from the model description (which wasn’t much)what they are assuming about interstate transmission. And ‘state’ isn’t really the right level of aggregation anyhow; NYC and Upstate NY are separate worlds from this POV. Although probably with a fair amount of travel between them.
I still want to see how many people this year have died of the “seasonal” flu. The one for which the CDC estimated our vaccines were about 50% effective. Wouldn’t that give us some sense of our future when covid flu vaccine becomes available?
Also, some anonymous street artist in Atlanta is going around – according to this report – fixing clever Winnie-the-Flu plaques here and there, with the local lovvies predictably going nuts over the supposed raaaaacism of it all? That’s just delicious. Liberal tears sprinkled over dark chocolate irony… Kudos: I guess that Sabo has inspired conservative artists in far remote places.
Early inklings of a nascent (and impatiently awaited, at least by me) cultural sea change?
Probably sounds laughable to some, but the culture moves like an oil tanker. I came across a news article in the SF Chronicle from 1959 that reported two teachers had been fired from the SFUSD (or whatever it was called at the time) for suspected Communist sympathies.
Ponder that one for a while.
Nationwide: where is the corana chan outbreak amongst grocery workers?
>There are few high-traffic businesses more densely populated than grocery stores. In fact, within the U.S. economy retail supermarkets have the highest foot traffic of any business sector in the entire economy; that’s just an empirical fact…. and the coronavirus impact increased that foot traffic by an average of 40 percent. Now, stop and think about this logically & apply a large dose of common sense. Think about human-to-human interface.<
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/04/20/common-sense-and-human-interface-georgia-governor-brian-kemp-announces-phased-reopening-of-business-starting-this-week/
It’s interesting to watch the hysteria and contemplate how the people would respond to a real emergency. I’m reading the new book by Eic Larson called “The Vile and the Splendid. about England in 1940. I have read a dozen books about this period but he has many new insights.
His “In the garden of beasts” is also excellent. It is about the new American ambassador to Hitler’s Germany in the 1930s.
He has other great books I have read.
Meanwhile., the Democrats are making Trump into Churchill.
I wonder if they have any inkling of it ?
There may be many Americans wanting to go all anonymously-Stasi informant on their neighbors if they can do so without risking the snitches-stitches thing, it remains that no one really likes a tattle tale, even less an anonymous tattle tale.
From commenter Jack Klompus @ Althouse: Nate Silver wonders about the “weird dynamics” of the red state/blue state difference… but is he picturing it right?
That’s my comment.
I gotta say that I have been highly dubious of this whole thing from the beginning, and that I swear to you that it looks like a traditional Soviet Dezinformatsia operation if you squint hard and look at it from the right angle. Certainly, there has been a tremendous amount of bad information about the entire debacle floating around, to include from within our own government.
Which is not to say that this hasn’t been a real threat to things, but that I think it has been very badly managed at all levels, particularly in Western governments that allowed themselves to be buffaloed by academics whose epidemiological predictions and projections haven’t been right once in the last fifty years. The same source that predicted millions of Mad Cow Disease victims (which haven’t appeared) and built up AIDS as a heterosexually-transmitted threat is the guy who came up with the COVID-19 projections.
Frankly, what I want to know is why none of the leadership has been smart enough to go “Yeah, hey… I get the threat, here, but I want to see your track record with all this sort of stuff… Oh? You’ve been massively wrong how many times? Hmmmm… I don’t think we’ll be listening to you, then…”.
Of course, we’re led by imbeciles and parvenus whose primary goal in life is accruing more power so that they can wield it incompetently and without consequence.
Me and my trad homies just passed a motion, voted unanimously on it, and it passed. Henceforth, to our group and all others–word is:
“SNITCHES GET STITCHES!”
or worst
(This motto is now in the public domain–use as directed.)
Q.—The center for disease control and prevention- what in the f*ck do they do there?
A.—If your answer includes “control” or “prevent” and does not include the word “disease” then you are correct, sir.
It is obvious that a whole lot of the people at CDC require re-education. Civilians recognize this as *unemployment*. Your services are no longer needed, so go learn a new skill, like one where non-taxpayers will actually PAY you for your services, because they are of some value.
From the top down, the CDC needs to be emptied of life-long blood sucking communists. Pink slip their asses.
With the new revelations yesterday (by Cuomo himself) that a full 20% or greater may have been already infected in New York, that makes the death/infected person denominator over several million. Making the death rate of this thing infinitely small. I just took a much higher risk of death upon myself driving this morning. This shines a light on a lot of things and would be a game changer if anyone would pay attention.
grocery stores…”Coronavirus impact increased that foot traffic by an average of 40 percent.”
Maybe it increased the *aggregate* traffic by that much..(why?)…but a lot of stores are limiting entry to a fixed number of people at a time. Also, grocery store workers tend to be pretty young and healthy, for the most part.
20,000 New York state deaths divided by 20% of New York’s population is one-tenth of one percent; the same as influenza.
We are not Russians and that commie crap is going to get shot down in flames.
I’ll take care of my own health and affairs and mommygov can GTFO.
Put something pleasant on the telescreens outside the glass dollhouse of delusion for the socially distanced comrades because the rest of us will be busy with this contest of survival known as life.
I’m almost 70. I think everybody who is younger and stronger and not immune compromised should be at work, vacationing, bar hopping, whatever they are usually doing. The old folks(me) and the immune compromised should stay mostly home, and if they go out, they should go out gloved and masked, and have as little contact with others as possible. I don’t mind a few restrictions if others are free to move about the country. Remember that one from SW Airlines? This whole “lock down” bullshit is ridiculous and unnecessary. End it, and end it NOW. Before the asshole “lock down” kills more people than the frigging virus.
Notice to bluezoners:
This has been a test. Redzoners now know the effectiveness of the bug and the bluezone responses. Save yourselves and leave the redzone alone — or else.
What Sean said!
This whole epidemic thing has a strong smell of what was going on with global warming. Models that predict disaster unless we destroy the economy. I’ve had some epidemiology training and I have been wondering for a while.
For example, this was March 21st.
I was wrong about one thing in that post. Smoking may even be beneficial in preventing infection. The French are passing out Nicorette gum.
One fact that I have seen that is startling. I have read that bat virus research was going on at the CDC and because of safety issues at US labs, the research was moved to China and funded by the US.
Critics of such work argue that it is unnecessarily dangerous and risks accidentally releasing viruses with pandemic potential — such as an engineered H5N1 influenza virus that easily spreads between ferrets breathing the same air1, 2. In 2012, such concerns prompted a global group of flu researchers to halt gain-of-function experiments for a year (see Nature http://doi.org/wgx; 2012). The debate reignited in July, after a series of lab accidents involving mishandled pathogens at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia.
Maybe that is the origin of the Chinese allegations that the virus began as a US Army project.
Is there anything the CDC can do right?
“Live Free Or Don’t Says:
April 24th, 2020 at 1:30 pm
We are not Russians and that commie crap is going to get shot down in flames.”
Boris Yelstin, funded by US sources, bypassed the overwhelming decision arrived democratically. Russians citizens turned out on the street and protested. Yeltsins hired (with US sourced money) goons killed over 500 protesters and wounded over 1000 in one day. Yeltsin never faced consequences for this from anyone.
Then we could imagine that there’s a difference between Russian, Soviet and people suffering under Communist regimes. Plenty of protests, plenty of resistance, lots of brutal repression.
The number people that died fighting communists number in the 10’s of Millions. You might want to cut them some slack
Lastly, I had my eyes opened to China. Not a fan. However here’s the Red Pill. Chairman Mao made many overtures to the US seeking friendship (along the lines “we don’t want to be your enemy because we acknowledge you’re the top dog”) which was ignored by those in power. And here’s the other one. In China you can’t change the party, but you can change the policies. In the US you can change the parties but you can’t change the policies.
The old folks(me) and the immune compromised should stay mostly home, and if they go out, they should go out gloved and masked, and have as little contact with others as possible
15% of Americans are 65 and older. 1/3 of Americans are either diabetic or pre-diabetic. Pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission would still require isolating a significant segment of the population, perhaps indefinitely. Permanent separation from your family when you reach retirement? High blood sugar sanitariums? Doesn’t sound like an appealing long term plan to me.
Geographic quarantining still makes the most sense. We need mandatory testing and, possibly, large scale population evacuations out of metropolitan areas.
Mike K, I’ve read “In the Garden of the Beasts” some time ago and also liked it. Let me recommend William Shirer’s “Berlin Diary” which I’m reading now (on Kindle unlimited). Shrier was a young (29 to start with) correspondent working in Berlin and foraying into all of Europe (I’m now “with” him riding with the Germans into France). A fast read, not detailed (unlike his “Rise and Fall of the Third Reich”), but there is a great immediacy about it.
The original gov actions were reasonable (and adjustable) when that thing crawled out of China, obscured by the fog of Chinese lies and Italian statistics.
The people of the CSA (Chaotic States of America, not that other one) adapted quite well and had an opportunity to see that the Commissars had “jack boots” in their closets and that the corruptocrats came out like they were in Chicago or Puerto Rico to steal whatever was within reach. My personal favorite was the Democratic Governor of New Mexico who decreed that HCQ (Hydroxychloroquine) should not be used to treat victims of the virus while truckloads of HCQ were stashed in the Nevada prison system, which had no prisoners at that time infected with the Corona virus. I have no doubt about where the profit from the eventual resale of that HCQ would be going.
The economy, indeed, must be restarted, but it would be wise to remember and to remove the savages that came to light during the virus struggle. They will always be our enemy and our vulnerability.
The “Anonymous” comment above lost mt handle “Mike-SMO”.
I encountered my Chief of Police walking in the park and I asked him about his department’s attitude about violations of distancing orders. He replied that his officers aren’t doing anything, that people are being reasonable, and are doing reasonable things. He said the real problem was the number of complaints from people who want to rat on their neighbors. He said his department is not responding to those complaints.
A couple of food-for-thought questions brought this week.
Dennis Prager asks if Montana had 20,000 deaths, would New York be shut down?
I think we all know the answer to that.
Someone on the Facebook group made a point – a bit tongue in cheek? – that the same kind of people here willing to anonymously snitch on their neighbor would have turned in Anne Frank’s family.
I think there is some truth to that. It is for the good of society, after all.
And I’d be willing to bet as far as “snitches per capita” it is an urban vs rural thing.
Although the pictures New Yorkers have sent on the “anonymous tip line” is heartening.
Mike K – Eric Larson is a great writer. I’ve read his book on the Devil in the White City – about the building of the 1892 Chicago World’s Fair – and what saved it financially – and a serial killer that made most of the current ones look like Girl Scouts.
His book on the Lusitania is excellent. Have his book on the Galveston Hurricane on the shelf and just ordered his latest. Garden of the Beast was excellent too.
I was going to take a cross country road trip until all this hit – and I am certainly not going to wait 2 years before all this goes away. And right now some states make it difficult – Utah makes traffic stop and sign a form stating you are not sick (!?) Maybe I’ll have to plan my route by a coronavirus map.
Some of these politicians remind me of small HOA apparachiks – a little authority used to make the lives of others miserable.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/skate-park-sand-venice-san-clemente-trnd/index.html
Hello from Yank in south central Ukraine. Thanks for excellent article and insightful, witty comments. Not much Wuhan virus here; here in Ukraine it is mostly in the cities, and, currently, infections are far below comparative populations vs. Europe or US. Mostly rural country in my present location. Most people work outside or are 75% self-sufficient with farmland and livestock. Only occasional need for city visits. Keep up the good work and commentary via this website.
David Foster
Are we talking the same IHME model that has been revised down a whole bunch of times, and was wrong for NY by 50% literally the day it was revised on April 4th? Seriously, I’ve come to take that model as the “Fear, fear, fear, doom, doom, doom” model
When you say, “…no one really likes a tattle tale…” it evokes nostalgia like a message from antiquity – although it was generally true until quite recently.
One of the signs of our cultural decline has been the valorization (in some circles) of reporting people to authorities. Examples like doxing, swatting, and “call-out-culture” tell us that there are now those who expect to be praised and congratulated for their tattling and, apparently, a substantial constituency eager to encourage them.
Alas, the de Blasio nark line is no outlier.
The world is changing rapidly.
how much longer with the serious Wuhan Corona-Crud lockdowns last?
At least six weeks longer than they should.
Grurray Says:
possibly, large scale population evacuations out of metropolitan areas.
Heck no. Not letting them move here!
David Foster Says
The question is how transmissible this problem will be to other cities
The other question is how much should there be? At least when you’re fretting enough about an infectious disease to lock everything down. Maybe the first thing done should have been to lock down travel in and out of and through such urban hotzones. No airport traffic, no road traffic, no rail traffic.
KG2V…”Are we talking the same IHME model that has been revised down a whole bunch of times, and was wrong for NY by 50% literally the day it was revised on April 4th?”
Probably…from their website, it is hard to tell exactly what the model is doing or how it might have been changed.
I suspect it is doing a state-by-state analysis depending on historical statistical patterns (based on a very brief history, which is all we have) in other places, without considering interstate transmission. Also, “state” is not really the relevant piece of geography; NYC and Upstate NY for example are quite different and need to be handled differently.
Mike K, I’ve read “In the Garden of the Beasts” some time ago and also liked it. Let me recommend William Shirer’s “Berlin Diary” which I’m reading now (on Kindle unlimited).
I think I read it. I have read everything he wrote, I believe. I have them all in my library including his biography.
I also recommend his “Collapse of the Third Republic,.” which is quite good.
Last summer I read this De Gaulle biography, which is also excellent.