Rationing Versus Allocation

Economists commonly talk about the entire economy as a “rationing” system because all resources are finite and human desire is infinite. In terms of standard dictionary terminology, the day-to-day economy does not ration. We use the term rationing only to describe situations when an individual gets a fixed amount of something regardless of price. For example, during a mass evacuation, we stop using a price mechanism to control an individual’s access to gasoline and instead set a fixed limit of gallons per vehicle.

When opponents of politically-managed health care claim that politically-managed health care will lead to rationing, they use the term in the ordinary sense. Proponents of politically-managed health care have dishonestly tried to obscure the debate by substituting the specialized definition that economists use for the standard definition, so they can claim the current system already “rations” care so nothing will change.

It’s thinly possible that some proponents of politically-managed health care are honestly confused and aren’t just intentionally employing rhetorical tricks to hide the real consequences of the policies they advocate. For those people, I offer the following explanation that uses the common definition of rationing.

It involves tires.

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Quote of the Day

Chet Richards, in a comment on this thread at Belmont Club:

For an economics professor, Gregory Clark has a very poor grasp of U.S. economic history. The real question is: what have we lost through our current redistributionist (i.e. socialist) policies?
 
LBJ instituted the “Great Society” as a redistributionist scheme. I well remember that at the time critics were saying that LBJ’s program was grossly underfunded and that it would have a very negative impact on the US economy. LBJ not only publicly admitted that the critics were right, he even openly gloated that future generations would just have to live with the consequences. On top of LBJ’s ego we had to suffer from the adoption of the “Limits to Growth” policy that was enacted in the early 70’s by liberal neoluddites including Nelson Rockefeller’s gang (and Richard Nixon). This policy choked off growth during the 1970’s by doubling the Capital Gains Tax.
 
So what have we lost? The long term economic growth of the US from its founding to 1970 was 4.5% through thick and thin. Growth losses during recessions and depressions were compensated by growth overshoots during the recovery period. Since the population was also growing, the per capita growth rate works out to about 3.5%. In 1970 the long term per capita growth rate dropped to 1.5% and has remained at that level ever since. (These days an annual total GDP growth of 4% is regarded as phenomenally good!)
 
Working the numbers for the period from 1969 to 2009 we have a per capita GDP growth of 4x with a 3.5% per capita growth rate. With the true per capita growth rate of 1.5% the per capita growth during this period was actually 1.8x. If we had not had LBJ and “Limits to Growth” our per capita economy would now be about 2.2x larger than it currently is. Factoring in the population growth gives us about the same ratio.
 
Conclusions: 1) Almost all of us have suffered a profound loss of the prosperity that should have been ours. 2) Revenues to the Government would have been substantially larger than they currently are and taxes would have been much lower. 3) Inflation would have been much lower which means our savings would not have been eaten away (and taxed) by inflation. 4) Current policies to expand redistribution are going to create even more loss of wealth and increase in poverty.
 
Shed a tear, folks, for what might have been, and what we likely will still lose.

How the Apple Tablet Could Save Computing

Popular Science bitches and moans about how the rumored Apple Tablet could ruin computing. [h/t Instapundit]

The Apple Tablet is rumored to be a cross between a laptop and an iPhone.  The iPhone isn’t really a cell phone, rather, it is a handheld computer employing a touch interface with a  cell phone  built-in. It uses a slimmed down version of Apple’s MacOS X operating system that Apple uses on all its computers. This makes it easy to make an actual laptop-like device that uses the iPhone’s operating system complete with the special cell-phone associated attributes of the handheld.

In PopSci’s thinking, this is a problem because the iPhone’s default setup only allows people to use software written by independent developers but approved by Apple installed exclusively by being downloaded from Apple’s App Store. According to PopSci, this is bad because if this model spreads to all computers, people wouldn’t have the same level of flexibility to run any software they please on the new type of computer as they do on current ones.

PopSci needs to rethink that because without a new business model to pay for the creation and distribution of software, there won’t be any software for people to run.  You can’t make money anymore writing and selling software using the current business models. PopSci isn’t saving freedom for end users, they’re killing it. Apple is saving the freedom of end users by making it possible for software developers who aren’t giant corporations to make a living at writing software.

The iPhone and its App store recently convinced me to return to writing software directly for end users and I am far from alone in doing so. The iPhone app store has ignited a renaissance in software development and PopSci shouldn’t be trying to abort that. We don’t need a software Bonfire of the Vanities.

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The New “Nomenklatura”

Recently in Illinois a scandal broke out regarding preferential admissions at Illinois public universities, notably the University of Illinois in Champaign-Urbana. Politicians were forwarding lists of applicants (who otherwise would not have been allowed to attend because they lacked the requisite credentials) and these “connected” applicants were accepted ahead of more qualified but “unconnected” residents.

The scandal has now moved on to other educational institutions, notably the “magnet” high schools such as this Walter Payton High School on Wells street in the River North area of Chicago (it is actually halfway between River North and Old Town). Here is a link to a Chicago Tribune article on the subject. Here is a more recent article… now the Federal authorities are getting involved.

The real issue, however, aren’t the specific instances of corruption. The broader picture is what our country will look like in the future as the government controls more institutions due to economic failure (car manufactures like GM, financial institutions like Citicorp, AIG and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) or due to encroaching powers (perhaps the entire medical industry).

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The USA/China Relationship: Obama’s Conflict of Interest

For years we’ve been selling China a lot of our bonds. We need the money and they want a safe place to put their money. Some people said that we were at their mercy, but really we had them by the balls. A big borrower always has leverage against his main creditor, because creditors want their money back and are reluctant to do anything that might interfere with the big borrower’s earning ability.

Since our government is increasing its spending substantially, and borrowing to cover much of the new spending, we need China more than we used to. If we can’t sell more bonds we will have to print even more money or raise tax rates even higher than is already planned. Either course of action would eventually be politically costly, perhaps ruinous, for the Obama adminstration. So Treasury Secretary Geithner has been spending a lot of time trying to persuade the Chinese to buy more US bonds.

I think it’s reasonable to ask what price our country will pay in exchange for Chinese financial cooperation (we are asking them to take more risk, after all), and whether the Obama administration has a conflict of interest. Obama can do things to benefit the Chinese government — such as by muting actions that we might otherwise take in response to China’s military expansion or its hostile behavior toward our ally Taiwan or its human-rights abuses or its lack of cooperation on North Korea — that will be costly for us but whose costs will not be obvious for years. Obama has a strong political incentive to get his expensive programs passed. Could his personal political interest be allowed to trump the national interest? It might if the rest of us don’t pay attention.

(BTW, we’ve also been selling a lot of our bonds to Gulf oil states. Might there be some worrisome quid pro quos there as well?)