National Security

Reaching for the Alien Shore

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So, about those drones. Treating the current social contagion as a subset of the ongoing “UAP” fad, how are we to evaluate the obsession with extraterrestrial aliens? Lest my output appear misleadingly prodigious, I wrote most of what follows in late summer 2023 and have modestly updated it for our situation as of (very) late autumn 2024. The organization of this post is an attempt at a hierarchy from most immediate/local to greatest space/time extent.

NOTICE! In compliance with the Manifoldian Transparency Pledge of 2024, which I just thought up:

  • this thing runs > 8k words, reading time potentially exceeds 30 minutes, and that doesn’t account for
  • lots of math and possible inducement to wander off down various rabbit trails invoked thereby (besides the homework/syllabus assignments), which you may or may not regard as part of the fun; and
  • not to overlook the obvious, I will address the concomitant obsession with foreign infiltration, and OCD contamination phobia in general, in at least one separate post.

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Making Their Mark on the World

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I’ve been mulling over the following question: how did each of the modern presidents from Nixon to present impact the world the most?

Richard Nixon: Opening relations with the People’s Republic of China.

Gerald Ford: The Helsinki Accords. The human rights plank encouraged the growing dissident movements in the Eastern Bloc. They took seriously what the Soviets were willing to put on paper in the albeit non-binding resolution.

Jimmy Carter: Enabling the Islamic totalitarian revolution in Iran.

Ronald Reagan: Fomenting the end of the Cold War. “Reagan bolstered the U.S. military might to ruin the Soviet economy, and he achieved his goal” – Gennady Gerasimov

George H. W. Bush: This may be a controversial choice, but I’m going with the “New World Order” speech, or rather what it represents – encouraging the United Nations to take a more active role in foreign relations. One of the legacies of the UN is the enshrinement of the ethic that wars must never be won, only fought to the point of ceasefire.

Bill Clinton: Granting the People’s Republic of China access to supercomputer technology vital to targeting manned, unmanned, and munitions-bearing rocketry. It’s the one great leap forward in China that actually worked.

George W. Bush: The Iraq War. Aside from altering the geopolitical landscape in the region, it convinced Muhammar Qaddafi to cooperate with the US to end Libya’s WMD program.

Barack Obama: Opening Iran to financial markets, thus magnifying its ability to conduct proxy wars.

Donald Trump (first term): It may be a bit early to gauge the legacy of the Abraham Accords, but opening the door to Israeli cooperation with some of its Arab neighbors is bound to have significant impact on Iran’s regional ascendency. It also breaks from the stupid tradition that any negotiations between Israel and any of its neighbors must include the Palestinians, as if Palestinian and non-Palestinian relations can’t be delt with separately.

Joe Biden: Opening Iran to financial markets, thus magnifying its ability to conduct proxy wars – assuming the Ukraine Missile Crisis does not top this. (Our own Trent Telenko is cited in the linked article.)

“Evil Amazon”

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Josh Treviño regarding the Mexican cartels:

“It is evil Amazon, really. They’re logistic firms with small armies attached that will profit from whatever they can and increasingly take on the characteristics of insurgency.”

I think the Amazon comparison is apt, but Treviño pulls up a bit short because it’s more than just logistics. Amazon has proven to be a master of leveraging existing capabilities in order to exploit new markets. There is of course its e-commerce transformation from an online bookstore to selling just about everything under the sun. Then there was its leveraging the last-mile delivery and now using its expertise in data centers to develop AWS and enter the AI market.

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2024 Election Plus/Delta

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Pluses: admittedly much the shorter list, but we did resolve a few things.

  1. Thanks mainly to vote shifts in California and New York, the popular vote outcome was not at variance with the Electoral College vote, and it wasn’t particularly close (over 4-1/2 million votes).
  2. Largely as a result, the losing side, and VP Harris herself, have indicated cooperation with formal certification and transition processes.
  3. Harris is gone. She’ll get a chunk of money for a book and retire to the lecture circuit.
  4. Walz, same, and given the likelihood that he would have been a 21st-century version of Henry Wallace, with Chinese instead of Soviet agents in his inner circle, that might be more important than getting rid of Harris.
  5. Taking a somewhat longer view, Trump is gone too (perhaps not a much longer view; see the final Delta item below).
  6. By extension, there is some chance that ’28 will not have the electorate choosing between a crook and an idiot for President.
  7. Whatever one may think of prediction markets, and there are arguments on both sides regarding their functionality, the biggest prediction market of all, the US stock market, was forecasting a Trump victory all year (not coincidentally, the same thing happened in 2016).
  8. By the way, the media will actually report negative economic news now.
  9. I could have put this in either category, but I’ll leave it here: your Cluebat of the Day is a reminder that Trump is as old as Biden was in ’20, and notwithstanding some of my more apprehensive items below, to expect anything much of him is a waste of time.
  10. Likely continuation of relatively good space-industry policy across Administrations, which should be the only thing that matters several decades from now.

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For the Want of a Ship…

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Priorities. Three data points.

First, remember this story from last month? Navy to Sideline 17 Vessels Due to Manpower Shortages.

So this an example of why the Navy is standing on the edge of a death spiral. We don’t have enough manpower to crew the ships we have, which means we need to take ships out of service, which means we put more pressure on the existing fleet with extended deployments, which means more problems with retention and recruitment. Rinse and repeat. When you see stories like the USS Eisenhower going on a nine month deployment through July of this year, this is the sort of thing that burns out crews and the fleet in general.

Second, I saw this story today, ”US Navy Replenishment Ship Sustains Damage While Operating in Middle East.” That replenishment ship was the only oiler in the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group which is currently operating near Oman in order to deter Iran. That oiler is now out of action and is being towed back to Dubai. There are no other oilers available in the fleet and the Navy is scrambling to find commercial vessels to service the Lincoln strike group.

A military force is only as good as its logistics and no oilers means the Lincoln strike group becomes a coastal force, tethered to ports for replenishment.

Of those 17 ships the Navy wants to take out of service? Two replenishment vessels and one oiler.

Third, Jill Biden reveals $500 Million Plan That Focuses on Women’s Health at Clinton Global Initiative Oh, really? Tell me more, like what problems are going to be addressed and where’s that money coming from?

First lady Jill Biden is unveiling a new set of actions to address health inequities faced by women in the United States, plans that include spending at least $500 million annually on women’s health research.

Biden was making the announcement Monday while closing out the first day of this year’s Clinton Global Initiative annual meeting in New York.

The additional government spending will mainly come from the Department of Defense…

So when we don’t have enough men and ships for the fleet, the Department of Defense is going to spend nearly $500 million annually on women’s health research? Not HHS or NIH?

Also, why announce this at the Clinton Global Initiative, that well-known personal slush fund for the Clinton crime family?

Did I mention the Clintons gave Joe an award?

Bet you that $500 million could have staffed those 17 ships they are taking off-line, maybe even built a new oiler.

Priorities.