Elections

Trying to be reasonable

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In a non-partisan setting, I had the following to say:

Without regard to my personal wishes with regard to Mr. Obama, my assessment of him as a politician, in 2008 an his chances in 2012 are as follows. Mr. Obama had a very good hand dealt to him in 2008. A very unpopular sitting president, a weak ticket from the same party, then a sharp downturn to the economy. Plus, his relative youth, his surface appeal to centrism, a vague but optimistic message, and of course the unique feature of being the first Black president. It added up to a solid win, but not a landslide win. (To see what a landslide looks like the three in my lifetime, 1964, 1972, 1984 are good examples.) Since then, he has had a very rough time. The economy is terrible. Whether you approve of his policies or disagree with them, so far they have not had any discernible positive effect. He seems unsteady in office, and to lack a capacity to command and lead, and the public wants a strong executive in times of crisis. The American public is an extremely unforgiving employer. We have had three people elected president who were popular and seemingly highly capable, whose reputations were destroyed by failing to overcome a weak economy: Martin van Buren, Grover Cleveland, and Herbert Hoover. Jimmy Carter is a less extreme example of the same phenomenon. Unless Mr. Obama suddenly has a run of good luck, he will be very weak going into the 2012 election, for the same reasons and will suffer the same fate. That said, the GOP may not be able to nominate a candidate that is popular and can reach into the center. Or the GOP could split off a third party, putting Mr. Obama back in that way. Mr. Obama’s supporters are highly motivated, organized and well-funded. Public employees unions will be practically fighting for their lives in 2012 and will work hard for him. The media will support him as fervently and with as much, if not more, slant and spin as they did in 2008. These advantages may make up for a terrible economy and weak performance in office.

Bottom line: It is too early to tell what will happen. The current Intrade odds show Mr. Obama a hair below even odds. Interestingly, Intrade shows a generic Democrat a hair above even, which suggests the possibility of a primary challenge to Mr. Obama. That could happen, probably from the Left. He will easily overcome any such challenge, and it may actually help him in the general election.

Interesting times for political junkies.

— Am I wrong about any of this?

Good morning, you sons of bitches.

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And you see it everywhere, it is the Tea Party. And you know, there is only one way to beat and win that war. The one thing about working people is we like a good fight. And you know what? They’ve got a war, they got a war with us and there’s only going to be one winner. It’s going to be the workers of Michigan, and America. We’re going to win that war… President Obama, this is your army. We are ready to march… Everybody here’s got a vote… Let’s take these sons of bitches out and give America back to an America where we belong.

You know who.

Is it sexist that he left out the daughters of bitches? Maybe he is afraid to make the girls mad.

But, have no worries. The foregoing quotation was meant in the nicest possible way.

It would be paranoid and provocative to suggest that an “army” “marching” to “fight” and “win” a “war” by “taking out” the “sons of bitches” so that “Mr. Obama’s army” is the “only winner” was anything more than strictly metaphorical.

Palin?

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So she gave a speech in Iowa today and she didn’t pull the trigger either way.

I wish Gov. Palin would just run for president and get serious

Or, give it up, and say so, and go on to whatever her next project is going to be.

Either way would be fine.

I would like her to be part of the debate in the GOP in the next few months.

But I am getting sick of this ongoing dance of a thousand veils from her.

Maybe there is a perverse kind of sense to it, from a personal rather than political standpoint.

Once she declares, she is ordinary, she is just another candidate. She has to debate and get in the cage with the rest of them. She would have to be prepared for that, and despite media claims, none of the other serious contenders are stupid, and beating them in debates will be hard. And then when she runs, and if she loses, as she probably will, then she’s done. The Palin phenomenon is over. I can see why she might want to put off that day. But if it is all about her ego, she should not be president anyway.

She cannot go on milking her celebrity status.

She has to use it or lose it.

(And, of course, this all may be part of some insanely brilliant strategy she is employing that I do not understand. If so, I will eat this blog post when, in the fullness of time, all has been made clear.)

How WRONG would it be to make myself a Quote of the Day???

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Any GOP Member who does NOT yell “you lie!” at least once during Obama’s “jobs” speech should be given a primary and run out of town.

Me

(Occasionally tweeting lately, fwiw.)

About the Tea Party, Let’s Get One Thing Straight Here

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Tea Party Patriots Mission Statement and Core Values

 
Mission Statement
 
The impetus for the Tea Party movement is excessive government spending and taxation. Our mission is to attract, educate, organize, and mobilize our fellow citizens to secure public policy consistent with our three core values of Fiscal Responsibility, Constitutionally Limited Government and Free Markets.
 
Core Values
 
* Fiscal Responsibility
* Constitutionally Limited Government
* Free Markets
 

The Tea Party is about these core values. Other issues, however worthy they may be, have their own advocates and their own place.

Do not be fooled by the propaganda.