Chicago Boyz

Jonathan taught me long ago that in trading you don’t lightly abandon your model and just try things. I hold to the same view in the less serious business of making political predictions while sitting at the breakfast table. I predicted last January that Hillary would run and Wesley Clark would be her running mate. Nothing has changed my mind.

The New York Post has this headline:Bill on Hill: It’s a maybe. “Clinton loyalists were startled yesterday to hear former President Bill Clinton suggest that his wife hasn’t made up her mind yet about running for the White House.” (via Drudge.)

No sh*t, Sherlock. Bill got in when Bush 41 was at 90% approval. Hillary is not going to miss a chance to go after Bush 43 when he is below 50% approval. When she gets in she will pretty quickly sweep everyone else from the field, especially in terms of fund-raising. She’ll roll to the nomination easily.

On a related point, the Wall Street Journal has a discussion about Wesley Clark getting in on its editorial page. It notes that “[t]he Democratic Establishment, very much including Bill and Hillary Clinton, is pushing the retired general as its stop-Howard Dean candidate.” The WSJ then concludes incoherently:

All of this occurs amid speculation about Hillary’s own presidential ambitions. Her role in backing the general suggests that she and her husband fear that Dr. Dean’s insurgency could upset her own well-laid plans for 2008. The real battle for control of the Democratic Party may finally have begun.

Uh, no. If Hillary wanted to run in 2008, she step back and let Dean run the party off the cliff in ‘04 and come back and be the savior of her party in ‘08. She is backing Clark because she is going to employ him as her running mate. He will provide cover for her lack of national security/military expertise.

They are going to be a formidable combination and they will probably beat Bush. Hope I’m wrong, but I fear I’m not. Believe me, this is one prediction I’d be happy to be wrong about.

Wall Street Journal front page story today: In a Shift, Schroder Says Germany Is Ready to Help U.S. Build Iraq. WSJ says:

While Mr. Schroder said Berlin wouldn’t provide any funding, he said that Germany was prepared to help train Iraqi police and Military Personnel and to work on varioius infrastructure projects.

Well, it will be good to have the Germans helping to train Iraqi cops and soldiers. They have made a good contribution in Afghanistan. As to not providing any funding, I’m not sure what that means. Are we going to pay the Germans to come in and do this? As to “infrastructure projects”, I guess the German construction industry wants a piece of the action that Brown, Root, et al. are getting and, best of all, apparently, at the expense of the U.S. taxpayer.

I’d say, have the Germans send their drill sergeants, but keep their bulldozers at home. But I’m sure we won’t do that. The U.S. will eagerly seize on any gesture of cooperation from the Germans. And, frankly, it will be good to have them in there.

Spare yourself the wrist strain of scrolling down — take the express lane.

1. Ralph Peters says keep the Turkish, Paki and Arab troops s out of Iraq.
2. Lex give you another chance to experience the greatness of cub.
3. Dig the new Baghdad Diary by Steve Mumford.
4. The facts are so good about the economy, funny how most people don’t hear about them …

I’m going to sleep now, so it will be a while, or never, before you will be blessed with my wisdom on Arnold and the California election, or an effusion about the totally excellent Muffs cassette (two live shows, 1997) I’ve been listening to in my super-cool new (to me) car, or about the remarkable book Army Life in a Black Regiment by Thomas Wentworth Higginson or the good article by Mark Bowden in the current (paper) edition of the Atlantic on torture and interrogation, (there‘s an interview here which I haven‘t gotten to yet) to say nothing about the William Kristol article about Leo Strauss I haven‘t even read yet, or these two books about John Boyd (this one and this one), or the very nice, illustrated copy of Moby Dick my wife just got (a smaller version of the Arion Press edition) and how funny it it seems to be and how I wish I had time to read it, or my musings on various of my friends getting seriously sick lately, and on a lighter note this one interview with Johnny Ramone and another one with Ivy Rorschach which I‘ve been going to share with you people once I get a few minutes to stop, read, think, type … .

So much stuff to read and to write about, so little time … .

The always blunt Ralph Peters lays it out. First the good news: “After prosecuting a just and triumphant war, the administration miscalculated much of the conflict’s aftermath. Yet our soldiers pulled the situation together – as they continue to do with increasing success – and President Bush showed the backbone to do what needed doing.” But … “Now he’s on the verge of squandering all that our men and women in uniform have gained.” How? Bush’s “recent move to persuade regional Islamic states to augment our forces in Iraq“ which would be “an act of folly so grave that its repercussions will be far worse than our failure to march on Baghdad at the end of Desert Storm.” Whoa. “[B]ringing in Turkish, Pakistani or Arab troops virtually guarantees the failure of our efforts to give Iraqis a chance to build a reasonably democratic, rule-of-law state.” Harsh words. Peters make a good case for why we should keep these jamokes the Hell out of Iraq. “The Turks are our enemies, not our friends, when it comes to Iraq’s future. … Having worked with Pakistan’s military myself, I know too well that Islamist bigotry permeates its ranks. …Congenitally incompetent, Arab forces would …do all they could to undermine our efforts and those of progressive Iraqis.” Peters tells us he

…spent the past week in Germany, speaking with our soldiers, from generals to privates. Some were just returning from Iraq, while others were about to deploy. I did not hear a single complaint about the mission. Even I was surprised by the optimism and commitment of our troops and their leaders. Our soldiers love their work and do it well. But every soldier, no matter the rank, with whom I raised the subject of Turkish, Pakistani or Arab peacekeepers coming to Iraq agreed it was a crazy, fatal idea.

Peters concludes that we need to start what we have finished, and clever attempts to rebuild Iraq on the cheap will backfire and be a disaster. OK. I’m convinced. Peters doesn’t really suggest alternatives, but it seems to me the alternative is a well-funded, full-scale effort to create a large and well-trained Iraqi army and police forces. Then, with our help, the Iraqis make Iraq safe for Iraqis.

Long-time ChicagoBoyz readers know that Lex is a perhaps overly effusive fan of the various musical incarnations of Lisa Marr. (See this, and this, and this comment I left on Captain Mojo’s site.) So I will resist the urge to launch into yet another (potentially tiresome) verbal avalanche of enthusiasm. I’ll keep it simple. Many of you may not know about her wonderful first band, cub (always lower case for some reason.) I notice that there are several complete songs here, though the sound quality is quite poor. “My Assassin” is a particular favorite, as is their cover of Beat Happening’s “Cast A Shadow” (cub’s version is 1,000,000 times better) as well the pop perfection of “New York City”. If you find that you dig these, crappy audio and all, you will be very well-served to go back and buy the cds, (or here), which only get better on repeated listens. (I like them best in this order: Come Out, Come Out; Betti Cola; Mauler; Box of Hair. Box of Hair, the last one, actually has a flew weak songs, but also a few brilliant ones. The others are mix of songs which are brilliant ranging down to merely very good.)