I am finding it difficult to figure out what is really going on in Lebanon. So I am keeping my vehement opinions to myself. I find my vehemence is, unfortunately, not much impacted even by a factual vacuum. But when I really, really don’t know what I am talking about, I try not to blog about it. I look for others who do actually know something. For now, the best things I have seen, that seem the most convincing, have been on StrategyPage. Check these out:
The fact that Wretchard himself says he does not really know what is going on convinces me that pretty much nobody does. Nonetheless, he offers this interesting speculation, which seems more or less consistent with what StrategyPage is saying.
On the other hand, Ralph Peters is being pessimistic. I like Peters’ harsh and bloody way of talking. It stirs my dark and brooding soul. But if I had to bet a dollar, I’d say that StrategyPage is more likely to be correct – that Israel is determined to impose a crushing defeat on Hezbollah, than Peters’ conclusion that the Israelis are going to pull out allowing Hezbollah to declare victory. I sure hope not.
But I really don’t know. And I have no way to know. Or even to guess.
UPDATE: The EU Referendum blog has this interesting piece, noting the large number of vehicles depicted in media reports which are used by Israeli combat engineers. This suggests that the current Israeli effort is in large part about clearing a path for further troops to be committed. Wretchard meanwhile analyzes some reports and finds the situation to be clear as mud. Much like the situation during the march on Baghdad, we will not have much idea of what was going on until it is over. If then.