Coverage of the War Against Hezbollah

I am finding it difficult to figure out what is really going on in Lebanon. So I am keeping my vehement opinions to myself. I find my vehemence is, unfortunately, not much impacted even by a factual vacuum. But when I really, really don’t know what I am talking about, I try not to blog about it. I look for others who do actually know something. For now, the best things I have seen, that seem the most convincing, have been on StrategyPage. Check these out:

You Can Look It Up

The UN Takes Sides in Lebanon

Iran Halts Arms Shipments to Hizbollah

The fact that Wretchard himself says he does not really know what is going on convinces me that pretty much nobody does. Nonetheless, he offers this interesting speculation, which seems more or less consistent with what StrategyPage is saying.

On the other hand, Ralph Peters is being pessimistic. I like Peters’ harsh and bloody way of talking. It stirs my dark and brooding soul. But if I had to bet a dollar, I’d say that StrategyPage is more likely to be correct – that Israel is determined to impose a crushing defeat on Hezbollah, than Peters’ conclusion that the Israelis are going to pull out allowing Hezbollah to declare victory. I sure hope not.

But I really don’t know. And I have no way to know. Or even to guess.

UPDATE: The EU Referendum blog has this interesting piece, noting the large number of vehicles depicted in media reports which are used by Israeli combat engineers. This suggests that the current Israeli effort is in large part about clearing a path for further troops to be committed. Wretchard meanwhile analyzes some reports and finds the situation to be clear as mud. Much like the situation during the march on Baghdad, we will not have much idea of what was going on until it is over. If then.

7 thoughts on “Coverage of the War Against Hezbollah”

  1. But I really don’t know. And I have no way to know. Or even to guess.

    The older I get the more I believe this is true of everyone, including Olmert and Nasrallah. That is why conspiracy theories are less and less appealing and actually watching history happen before us is more and more interesting.

    Contingency redux.

  2. Yeah, who knows. I’ll say one thing, though. The Hez tactic of attempting to escalate by firing bigger and badder rockets at Israel seems sure to be counterproductive. I mean, whatever the Israeli public consensus was for going in and flattening the bastards, that consensus is only going to become stronger after each new rocket attack — particularly if the Hez keeps shooting off larger rockets of the Wewillfuckyouupbad 3 variety (or whatever it’s called) that they fired off today.

    Maybe the rocket escalation is intended more to rev up support for Hez among its allies, but it could just as easily cost them support on balance. Plus, as Wretchard points out, they are in a no-win defensive combat mode that doesn’t bode well for their survival. Unless, of course, they get a deus ex machina in the form of an imposed cease fire, but that seems unlikely at the moment.

    Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys.

  3. F*cking UN. The one time I watched TV coverage of the conflict, they kept showing UN vehicles and soldiers. I think it was some piece about needing UN peacekeepers. Why? So they can run prostitution and slave trade rings again like they did in the Balkans? I see “Stingy” Jan is asking us to pony up money again. Bastard…

  4. We can safely assume that all information that comes out of Hez dominated areas of Lebanon is carefully scripted. I don’t under why people are so adamant in making political decisions based such questionable information.

  5. Neatly reinforcing Lex’s point, Aristide, an early (4:24 p.m.) commentor on Wretchard’s “Humanitarianism in Asymmetric Warfare” lays out the various, contradictory reports & concludes: “The tea leaves have never been more opaque.” Perhaps today & for some it is clearer. But the cups of the Middle East have never been known for their transparency – nor have their drinks.

  6. At the risk of trumpeting my colleague’s achievements again, he has managed to track down some interesting aspects to the MSM coverage of the aftermath of the Quana bombing. You can find the unfolding story on EUReferendum

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