Look at Tradesports’ price history for its AIRSTRIKE.IRAN.DEC07 contract:
(Click the thumbnail to display a large version of this chart.)
So what does this combination of an increase in stern American and British rhetoric, and stagnant odds in the geopolitical wagering market, mean? I think it’s clear. The rhetoric is most likely not intended as a prelude to action by us. It is intended as a substitute for action. This is business as usual and not at all encouraging.
(See also this post.)
Cross-posted at Midas Oracle.
UPDATE: Chicago Boyz is an Intrade affiliate.