Here’s what I wrote June 10 about oil prices.
Here’s how the market looks now.
Time will tell.
3 thoughts on “Maybe I Spoke Too Soon”
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Some Chicago Boyz know each other from student days at the University of Chicago. Others are Chicago boys in spirit. The blog name is also intended as a good-humored gesture of admiration for distinguished Chicago School economists and fellow travelers.
Ha, that’s nothing. Look at AMZN and BEAS, down big from where I called it. Glad I’m out of those…
I think Robert Schwartz has it absolutely correct in the linked post. I think current oil prices are more indicative of US dollar inflation, a logical outcome of the Fed’s incredible money supply boost over the last couple years. We saw inflation in real estate, and now we’re seeing it in oil (which OPEC only prices in dollars). This will probably end up distributing inflation to most commodities.
Its amazing that the Fed can distort the economy to such an extent and be praised for it too.
I agree that the Fed is a chronic problem. However, inflation as an explanation for high oil prices would seem more likely if gold were also near a high. Supply/demand seems like a better explanation for oil.