What Are the Odds?

Lex alerted me to Oddschecker, an online bookmaking site that shows current market-generated odds on the U.S. presidential election as offered by numerous bookmakers. I have permalinked this site on the right margin of this page, just under the Intrade quote board and Iowa Markets.

While I have only very recently heard about Oddschecker, it’s obvious that the concept has merit as it allows one to see at a glance where the central tendency of election estimates lies, and which estimates are outliers.

In this regard there is no substitute for multiple sources of information, as this insightful analysis of the flaws of the Iowa Markets shows. (See also this post.)

2 thoughts on “What Are the Odds?”

  1. Looks like the Iowa Market has someone from the CBOT soybean pit trading there. What they’re doing is called “putting out a lowball”, a common practice in thinly-traded markets.

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