The Dems winning the presidency is trending down on Intrade as you can see on the sidebar. As of this writing it is sitting at 56% or so. I like Intrade better than polls since people are actually putting their money where there mouth is at Intrade, whereas with polls there are tons of other factors at play.
That said, Ann Althouse has an interesting poll up today framed thusly:
If you HAD to bet one thousand USD of your own money on whether or not Obama would be re-elected, would you put the money on Obama or not? The results so far are 75-25 that he will not get re-elected.
I have been pounding the table all along that when the rubber hits the road, the dissatisfied left and others will crawl across broken glass to vote for Obama and that he will win. I still think he will but am not as certain as I used to be. In other words, I wouldn’t bet you dinner on it. And that is good.
*Full disclosure – this blog is an Intrade affiliate.