Larry Kudlow suggests that there is reason for some optimism:
As pessimistic as I have become about Republican chances to keep the House, there may yet be hope. Front-page stories yesterday in the Washington Post and today in the New York Times essentially predict significant GOP losses and a growing likelihood that the Dems will finally capture the lower chamber for the first time since 1994. The reason Iím starting to rethink my pessimism is simply that the mainstream media always gets it wrong. As soon as they start ganging up on the GOP on the front pages, the likelihood becomes greater that the tide may be turning the other way.
I sure hope so. I don’t read Tradesports’ Republican House reelection odds as positively as Larry does. OTOH, I think that he is probably right about the MSM as a contrary indicator. My hunch is that the Tradesports number is too low, either because the market is being manipulated or because the only info the market has to go on comes from recent polls, which I suspect are not accurate. Only time will tell who’s right, of course, and I could be way off in my hunches.
Despite the Tradesports ambiguity, Larry’s post is a great rejoinder to Republicans’ gloom about the coming election and is worth reading in full.
UPDATE (Sept. 8): See Lex’s comments below, and also this post in which he and I continue to debate this issue.