“Usually the things people get scared about are not the things that end up causing big problems. “It’s the unexpected, always” as Keynes said. The guy who has ten guns and a bug out bag probably faces more risk from being overweight and having no retirement savings.”
— Jonathan
ADDENDUM:
“Not that there is anything wrong with having ten guns.”
— also Jonathan
Book Discussion on Human Accomplishment and The Black Swan:
http://www.c-span.org/video/?199808-4/book-discussion-human-accomplishment-black-swan
Ten is a good start…
“Not that there is anything wrong with having ten guns.” What, none for your toes as well? Shame!
Interesting quote. Most of the things we worry about come to naught. Doesnt prevent me from worrying about them.
The guy with ten guns and a bug out bag has one less thing to worry about than the guy without. Keynes was talking about himself, he never worried about the supply side. And he most likely didn’t have any guns or a bug out bag. Good thing Hitler didn’t get across that channel. The useful idiots are the first to go.
Mike
Years ago we discussed The Pentagon’s New Map. Author Tom Barnett was critical of the Pentagon for always preparing for the big war that we never fight. Instead, he argued, they should devote more resources to what the professional military termed things other than war, which are the small wars and police actions where they actually spend most of their time and resources. Good point.
However, what shouldn’t be overlooked is that the reason we never fight the big wars is because we’re prepared for them. We were scared the USSR and global communism and devoted a lot of resources to both ensuring they couldn’t conquer us militarily and also ensure there wasn’t an accidental war of nuclear exchange. If we lose a small war, the country doesn’t cease to exist.
So there’s a good case to be made for preparing for major threats of all sorts and dealing with the smaller problems as they arise.
Which is not to say we shouldn’t be saving money for retirement!
“… the reason we never fight the big wars is because we’re prepared for them.”
Yes. And we are learning that now as our level of preparation declines.
“he guy with ten guns and a bug out bag has one less thing to worry about than the guy without.”
Yes, true.
But note the subtlety of Jonathan’s thought.
He does not say the risks addressed by the guns and bug out bag are not real, he says only that the risks of being overweight or running out of money in old age are more likely to actually to do harm. The need to address those problems is unambiguously real. The need for the guns and bug out bag may never materialize.
On the other hand, if you need a gun and don’t have one you are dead or worse. If you are overweight you can loose weight (not easy but I’m down 60 lbs from a year and a half ago). Not having retirement money means you work longer, the whole “retire at 60” thing came about when people died at 62.
Several characters in WEB Griffin’s novels say, “You never need a gun unless you need one badly.”
“The need for the guns and bug out bag may never materialize.” and “You never need a gun unless you need one badly.”
The cost/benefit/probability ratio of instances when it would be beneficial to be armed is small and IMHO a no-brainer. True of most “preppng”.
Arms & ammo & spare parts :)