There are currently 75,772 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide, including 2,129 fatalities as of this morning’s time hack. China has changed how they are reporting new cases yet again (two times they admit too) again, so numbers will decrease there. Worldwide less China, there are 1150 infected, with 10 deaths (1 Taiwan, 1 Japan, 1 Philippines, 2 Diamond Princes, 2 Hong Kong, 1 France, 2 Iran). There are both some number crunching and recent coronavirus developments in this update.
First, the number crunching:
Current death to recovery ratio outside Mainland China are:
10/(176+8)= 5.38% death rate.
The number of cases above are not large enough yet to draw statistical inferences for medical care outside Mainland China…yet
Inside Mainland China’s state of Hubei, where the medical system has been overwhelmed, things got a lot worse.
2029/(2029+10388) = 16.3% death rate (assuming you accept the numbers from CCP)
As long as high quality medical care is available to those who require intensive care, mortality rates should go down as more is known about successful COVID-19 treatment. Anywhere the system is overwhelmed, as happened is in Wuhan, it will be horrid.
Second — Twitter traffic is reporting (50 tonnes of salt warning) the following on Iran and COVID-19:
#BREAKING: Security forces of #Iran‘s Islamic Regime including #IRGC Ground Force are now sending their troops and military equipment including these MRAPs to the city of #Qom in-order to establish military curfew over #CoronaVirus outbreak & death of two people in the city! pic.twitter.com/bQT0jjHN8z
— Babak Taghvaee (Backup) (@BabakTaghvaee1)
Third — A recent report on “viral loading” of normal infected versus COVID-19 super spreaders. Short form: The only difference is the lack of symptoms. Longer form below.
SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in Upper Respiratory Specimens of Infected Patients
We analyzed the viral load in nasal and throat swabs obtained from the 17 symptomatic patients in relation to day of onset of any symptoms (Figure 1C). Higher viral loads (inversely related to Ct value) were detected soon after symptom onset, with higher viral loads detected in the nose than in the throat. Our analysis suggests that the viral nucleic acid shedding pattern of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 resembles that of patients with influenza4 and appears different from that seen in patients infected with SARS-CoV.3 The viral load that was detected in the asymptomatic patient was similar to that in the symptomatic patients, which suggests the transmission potential of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic patients. These findings are in concordance with reports that transmission may occur early in the course of infection5 and suggest that case detection and isolation may require strategies different from those required for the control of SARS-CoV. How SARS-CoV-2 viral load correlates with culturable virus needs to be determined. Identification of patients with few or no symptoms and with modest levels of detectable viral RNA in the oropharynx for at least 5 days suggests that we need better data to determine transmission dynamics and inform our screening practices.
Fourth — The ability of local American communities to execute self-quarantine appears doubtful and will only get worse with time. See:
Coronavirus Has U.S. Cities Stretching to Monitor Self-Quarantined Americans
Local efforts to prevent potential spread of Covid-19 have been like ‘one big, long bad day’
By Brianna Abbott
Feb. 19, 2020 5:30 am ET
“Public-health officials in the U.S. are striving to keep tabs on thousands of Americans who have quarantined themselves at home after returning from mainland China to curtail the new coronavirus, adding to an epidemic response that is straining already-stretched local departments.
More than 5,400 people had been asked to self-quarantine in California alone as of Feb. 14, according to the California
Department of Public Health. Hundreds more are self-quarantining in Georgia, Washington state, Illinois, New York and other states.
Public-health officials are following directions from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the State Department to supervise these people, but many steps are being developed on the fly. States are using a variety of techniques to track people from calling in volunteers to make phone calls, to sending text messages and using electronic registries”
Fifth — There is more bad news from Hawaii. Maui got slimed. See:
Japanese visitor had symptoms while on Maui
Coronavirus victim originally thought to only be symptomatic during Oahu leg of stay
In critical condition in Japan
Sixth — More fall out from the botched Diamond Princess (which some wags have dubbed “Corona Princess”) quarantine. Including, it seems, the head of the Japanese health ministry getting sick ?!!?
State: Coronavirus evacuees from Lackland transported to state infectious disease hospital in San Antonio
By Lauren Caruba Updated 3:25 pm CST, Wednesday, February 19, 2020
Did the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship “Quarantine” Just Infect More People with Covid-19 and Spread It Further?
Japanese Epidemiologist Criticizes “Chaotic” Conditions Onboard The “Diamond Princess”
Dan Anders | February 19, 2020 [This link censored by Facebook Community Standards]
“The Japanese professor Kentaro Iwata, an epidemiologist at the University Hospital of Kobe University, spent a day at the
Diamond Princess as a volunteer. In multiple YouTube videos, he strongly criticized government policy. “The cruise ship was
completely inadequate in terms of controlling infections,” he said in one of them. “There was not a single infection control
professional on the ship, nor anyone professionally involved in infection prevention. The bureaucrats were in charge of
“There is no clear distinction between the green (healthy) zones and the red (potentially infected) zones. And the staff is running back and forth,” Iwata reported. Such public criticism of the country’s authorities and leadership is extremely rare in Japan.
Iwata-san said he was shocked by the conditions on the ship. Unlike previous epidemics in which he was involved, such as
outbreaks of SARS, Ebola, and cholera, the ship wasn’t divided into a safe ‘green zone’ and a potentially infected ‘red zone’. “It was even worse than what I’ve seen in Africa.””
Japanese Minister of Health, Labour and Welfare frequently coughs without wearing a mask, approved for worst demonstration [Needs Google Translate]
Source: China Daily2020-02-19
Finally, The Chinese developed COVID-19 medical treatment protocol. See screen capture below: