Some Chicago Boyz know each other from student days at the University of Chicago. Others are Chicago boys in spirit. The blog name is also intended as a good-humored gesture of admiration for distinguished Chicago School economists and fellow travelers.
This will be a short update. Issues covered will be on COVID-19 spread, World Headlines, COVID-19 medical developments regards PPE & the role of building contamination in spreading disease in Japan, and the social media and videos COVID-19 tracking source section.
Top line, There are currently 92,138 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide, including 3,134 fatalities as of the 3 March 2020 at 5:51 a.m. ET time hack on the BNO News corona virus traking site (https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/) There are 70(+) and growing nations including China plus three “Chinese special administrative regions” (Macao, Hong Kong and Taiwan) that have reported COVID-19 infections. China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Italy, Iran, Germany, R.O.K. and the USA all appear to have local, or endemic, spread of the disease.
World Headline Summary (As of late evening 3/2/2020):
o US death toll climbs to 6; all in WA, which has 18 cases
o 2 new cases confirmed in Tampa Bay
o 1st case reported in New Hampshire
o Hubei reports 114 new cases, 31 new deaths
o Santa Clara County confirms 2 more cases, bringing county total to 9
o Gottlieb warns US cases likely in ‘low thousands’
o Illinois announces 4th case
o Boris Johnson: “A very significant expansion” of the virus is “clearly in the cards”
o Italian death toll climbs 18 to 52 while total cases surpasses 2,000
o BMW tells 150 to quarantine after Munich employee infected
o Algeria total hits 5
o Senegal becomes 2nd sub-Saharan country to confirm virus
o WHO’s Tedros: Virus is “common enemy” of humanity so don’t focus on blame
o Jordan reports first two cases
o French death toll revised to 3, total cases climb to 191
o Tunisia reports first case
o UK total climbs to 40
o OECD warns global growth could fall by half
o Indonesia reports first cases
o “Progress is being made” toward a vaccine
o Cuomo says NY expects more cases
o India confirms 2 more cases
o ‘Official’ Iran death toll hits 66
o EU confirms 38 deaths across 18 members
o First cases confirmed in Fla.
o 2 Amazon employees test positive in Milan
o Virus now in 8 US states: Washington, California, Illinois, Rhode Island, New York, Florida, Oregon and New Hampshire
o San Antonio virus patient re-hospitalized after testing positive
o China warns it could face ‘locust invasion’
COVID-19 MEDICAL DEVELOPMENTS
This article is very much worth reading in full, printing out a copy, highlighting and carrying around. I’ll excerpt a couple of sections from it below the title and link:
Unmasked: Experts explain necessary respiratory protection for COVID-19
Donald Milton, MD, a professor of environmental health at the University of Maryland, helped prove via the use of his Gesundheit machine that influenza could be spread via aerosol transmission. He said he is in contact with colleagues in Singapore who are attempting to study the transmission of the COVID-19 viruses, which are often called nCoV, for novel coronavirus.
Though Chinese officials said earlier this week that they believe the coronavirus is transmitted only via droplets, implying they do not believe airborne or contact transmission plays a role, Milton said that statement is likely rooted in fear, not science.
“To me this sounds like someone trying to deal with panic, because people panic when they hear airborne transmission and long-distance transmission,” he said. He said there has been scientific evidence of aerosol transmission of MERS-CoV (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus), so it is likely possible for this novel coronavirus, as well.
Milton cautions that the difference between aerosol and droplet transmission is largely in name only. Respiratory droplets, emitted with a sneeze or a cough, are commonly thought to land within 6 feet of patients and are too large to be buoyant on air currents. Respiratory aerosols are droplets too, Milton said, but smaller and light enough to travel farther.
“You cannot tell the difference epidemiologically between something aerosol transmitted by weak sources and large droplet spray,” said Milton. “They behave so similar, it’s very hard to pick up the difference.”
He said he suspects the capability of long-distance transmission with COVID-19 will be connected to source strength, or how symptomatic a person is.
Protection may depend on resources
For Ribner, the issue of correct mask use will linger until the exact route of transmission is documented, and it is established if an asymptomatic person (one having no symptoms) can shed the virus before becoming sick.
“If we have a person who is shedding nCoV in the environment, the best way to stop transmission is to stick a surgical procedure mask on them,” Ribner said. “In the best of all worlds, anyone coming into the room with an nCoV patient would wear a respirator.”
But if a respirator is not available, because of cost or manufacturing, the next best option is a surgical mask, Ribner said. He said that likely contributes to the WHO’s surgical mask recommendation.
“The WHO is sensitive to the fact that not every part of the world has the resources of the US and Western Europe,” he said.
Trent Comment: Pay a lot of attention to the fact that cloth surgical masks worn by asymptomatic people on the street and by sick people at home will help reduce the spread of COVID-19. So wearing masks does in fact help, contrary to the messaging of the CDC. Please carefully note these sorts of differences between American public health messages attempting to manipulate public behavior in the face of PPE shortages for medical professionals and the real facts.
The following is translated text on the flutracker.com forum. The issue of fomite contamination hitting older people with low immune system strength in places frequented by young teens is showing up in the spread of COVID-19 in Hokkaido.
A national expert meeting on anti-coronavirus measures analyzed data from Hokkaido, where the number of infected people was the highest, and summarized the findings, spreading even if the young generation with mild symptoms did not notice even if infected. He refrained from going out even with mild cold symptoms, and called for as few events as possible in poorly ventilated spaces.
Following the spread of infection in Hokkaido, an expert meeting of the national emergency response headquarters for the new coronavirus put together its views on the status of infection and the measures required in the future.
Among them, regarding Hokkaido, “it is thought that there are many tourists from China and it is thought that those people spread the infection”, and given the situation where infected people are scattered throughout the province, considering the population ratio According to the report, the number of infected cases is overwhelmingly large in remote areas.
In addition, people with mild symptoms are thought to play an important role in spreading infection in Hokkaido without noticing, especially among young people, the rate of severe disease is very low and the situation of infection spread is not visible As a result, it is believed that many middle-aged and elderly people are infected as a result.
And about of the infected people, about 80% did not infect other people, while in cases where one or more people were infected at a close distance for a certain period of time in a closed indoor space. It has been reported.
Furthermore, in urban areas in Hokkaido, where there are many young generations, people with active social and economic activities are more likely to gather in places where these infection risks are high, and it is said that infection is spreading without realizing it. It is believed that the infection has spread as people move to other parts of Hokkaido.
In addition, if active measures were taken in the past one or two weeks, the spread of infection could be rapidly converged. Regardless, we encourage people to avoid going to places and events where they can talk at close distances in a poorly ventilated space.
On the other hand, those who have no symptoms are infected outdoors, such as walking, jogging, shopping, and activities that have little contact with people, and reaching out to reach the other person and talking at a distance that is out of reach. Risk is low.
He further commented that he was “requesting” people in their teens and thirties, saying that young people could spread the disease to people at high risk of illness. Alone can stop the illness of many people and save lives. “
Trent comment: Pretty much any space with poor ventilation and repeated occupation by a “super spreader” of COVID-19 will be infectious for days or weeks if the virus gets into the cold/wet spaces in an HVAC system cooling a building, train, airplane, subway or other enclosed space.