The last five days have seen the Russian Army pushing into Ukraine from the North, South and East with multiple failed helicopter & parachute drops around the cities of Kyiv and Odessa in the Southwest, plus three amphibious operations in the South that has left Mariupol all but surrounded.
3-4 division equivalents are insufficient to even attempt to occupy the Ukraine unless the Ukrainian people themselves give up, and they haven’t. The opposite in fact as there are about 150 battalion sized Ukrainian territorial militia being handed out weapons in addition to active & reserve Ukrainian ground forces.
The next three maps give a useful overview of the military events to date.
The Ukrainian military reports the following Russian losses through 28 Feb 2022.
For people not wishing to trust the Ukrainian reports. See this link:
Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
The following Ukrainian report is on Russian cruise missile launch numbers by type. Confusingly, Russia has both ballistic and cruise missile named “Iskander” because they both use the same ‘Iskander’ launch vehicle.
The biggest surprise of the war is the fact the Ukrainian Air Force is still flying and it’s Turkish TB2 drones are killing Russian surface to air missile batteries, trucks, tanks and even a 60-tank car fuel train in Crimea!
See the following link for confirmed TB2 Kills in Ukraine to date:
Defending Ukraine – Listing Russian Army Equipment Destroyed By Bayraktar TB2
TB2s have hit multiple convoys, especially carrying fuel and ammo. in addition to the previously mentioned railway POL cistern train. Ukrainian military briefings on airstrikes conducted by the 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade (TAB) Su-24M FENCERs and 299th TAB Su-25M FROGFOOTs are all described as “convoys”. ukrainian government public directives to Territorials and civilians are all about ambushing and destroying primarily fuel convoys.
This suggests the Ukrainian strategy is to block the lead Russian armored column “Schwerpunkts” and then interdict the supply of POL, ammunition and reinforcements. This is a variation on the late armored warfare author Brigadier Richard Simpkin‘s “hammer and anvil” operational doctrine using a combination of air power, long range tube and rocket artillery, and “irregular” forces behind the notional forward edge of the battle area (FEBA) to interdict lines of resupply. If this Simpkin model works as intended the effect would be like Kursk, with the Russian armored column “Schwerpunkts” stuck deep behind enemy lines and out of gas, ammunition and luck.
The problem is the Russian Army is huge and just had the Pres. Lukashenko of Belarus’s army join in the drive on Kyiv. Despite all their success with drones strikes and jet fighter air-to-air combat, the Ukrainians are getting ground down. They have not lost any major cities yet, but several of the middle sized ones have fallen in the South and on the coast. Some 80% of the 180,000 to 200,ooo Russian ground forces they built up around Ukraine are now inside Ukraine’s borders and are pushing with most of the 44,000 troops from Belarus set to head into Ukraine from the north in a couple of days.
The key issue for “War Termination” is Russia’s financial burn rate for the war. Estimates place it at $30 billion a day. So 30 days of high end conventional combat is $900 billion, AKA something like 75-80% of Russia’s pre-war foreign currency reserves.
I expect Ukraine will be overwhelmed conventionally in another 3-to-6 weeks.