January 10, 2025
Over 20 years ago, my family rented a house in Bodega Bay, about 70 miles north of San Francisco. It is most famous for those outside No CA for Alfred Hitchcock’s 1963 classic, The Birds. I strolled through the burg and went by a realtor’s office, with the various homes and properties displayed in the window.
There were 2 hilltop adjacent lots, both with the same view of Bodega Bay and both the same size.
One was priced at $50,000 (this was over 20 years ago), while the other was $450,000.
And over the years I have occasionally asked people “why the discrepancy?” They are both the same size, next to each other and both with the same view.
Nobody could answer, even Californians.
Of course, everything economic has a reason.
In this case, one lot owner had permission from the California Coastal Commission to build a home, while the other may wait 10 or 20 years for that permission.
I was reading today’s Wall Street Journal, and a columnist was saying that this is probably the most expensive fire in the nation’s history. A JP Morgan Analysist has put the damage (so far) at $50 billion.
The burned area at almost 16,000 acres, is larger than the borough of Manhattan. Those flying over the devastation say it reminds them of Hiroshima.
And it was largely preventable.
Along the Pacific Coast Highway, only the ocean has stopped the fire.
A friend of mine has travelled our North Coast for decades. And he used to work for our major newspaper, traveling on assignment.
We stopped at Tomales Bay, at the Tomales Bay Oyster Company. This area farms oysters which are shipped all over the state.
The facility looks pretty much like it has for the last 50 years, courtesy of the coastal commission. One of the most illuminating things were a couple of bungalows, small shacks, that people rent for the night. Inside they are lavishly decorated, but outside they look like shacks. They do not look impressive, nor would they get a second glance. The nightly rental is $700 to $1000 a night.
They have plenty of business from patrons from Marin County and the Bay Area.
The Coastal Commission is adamant that things along California’s Coast change at a glacial pace.
I was acquainted with a family who inherited 1,000 acres of coastline near Bodega Bay. Development was prohibited, but they did have an area near the coast open to both weekend campers and more permanent mobile homes.
Nothing was paved, and families came there for a few days of relaxation. An acquaintance of mine had a 50s era Spartan mobile home, with a redwood deck. One afternoon we had a memorable time just sitting on the redwood deck, having a nice beer amid the sound of the surf and the breeze. It was so memorable I still think of it a decade later.
After battling with the Coastal Commission for a few years, they were forced to tear all of this up, evict the tenants, and just allow cows to graze.
My friend and I had lunch at Nick’s Cove in Marshall. He was telling me that years ago, the restaurant was condemned because the wood was rotting. It took them 10 years just to get permission to rebuild it as it was.
If you are allowed to rebuild, they want it exactly as it was – every board and room. A few years ago their boathouse on the end of their pier burned and I believe they have permission to rebuilt the boathouse, with the provision mentioned.
Despite all of this, I think overall they have been good for California. I do think with some things they have been too draconian. A couple of years ago I was driving north on Hwy 1 from San Simeon, and along the way to Big Sur, some of the most beautiful road in the world, I looked at the cliffs to my right and imagined it all lined with condos.
This Commission was created by voter initiative in 1972 (Proposition 20) when the developer for Sea Ranch, in the area I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, initially wanted to privatize 10 miles of coastline. That got some people motivated to get enough signatures for a statewide ballot initiative.
So why do I mention all of this?
With the many thousands (probably 5 figures) of structures destroyed along the LA coast, I am wondering what the reconstruction process will entail.
My guess?
That the CCC will tell owners that they may rebuild but nothing is to be modified, and subject to inspection later at their discretion. With 160 employees this task is, in an understatement, overwhelming.
That is, for those who still had adequate insurance or assets. Many companies have fled the state due to the fact that they were not allowed to increase their premiums despite increased costs. In the same WSJ issue, it was claimed that State Farm Insurance has been paying out $1.09 for every $1 they have taken in.
Which is not sustainable.
Victor Davis Hanson regularly says most well-off people vote blue because they are “immune to the consequences of their ideology.”
We will now see many people losing their immunity to the consequences of their ideology for the first time. Everything they have been voting for will now stop them from using their money to replace.
That could be a red pill for a lot of people.
The CCC has basically become a local zoning board, overriding local governments.
The problem with establishing agencies isn’t that the people who initially staff them don’t have the best of intentions and they can promise and pinkie swear they will never do anything bad but in short order they are replaced by people that will…powerful agencies attract people who want power because that’s where the power is.
Pacific Legal Foundation has been battling the cretins at CCC for years. Here’s one of “favorite” cases where the property owners couldn’t add a second story tot heir house, even though they got the local permits, because the CCC said it would block a view of the ocean from the road thus depriving drivers of their rights. The CCC put up such a fight that to get the permits, the land owner basically signed away part of their property (making part of a private beach public access)
https://pacificlegal.org/plf-client-heads-california-supreme-court-protect-property-from-ccc/
What will LA fire people with mortgages on their totally burned property do? Particularly in situations where they have no way of paying that mortgage?
They will sell the lot.
Not only will they find competition for buyers will drive down the price they can ask. Those with property having ocean views will face Cal Coast Commission restrictions. These will limit the pool of buyers willing to risk long term delays in development, further driving down the cost. “Fire sale” and “dirt cheap” will take on instructive meaning.
And who will be the buyers? Betcha not only corporations, but specifically foreign owned corporations.
My thoughts exactly, Roy.
Lacking the structures to capitalize for rents, the lot owners can only rebuild, or sell.
Most should expect personal offers from wealthier, adjacent neighbors who want to expand their plots in this rich market, or from “institutional” buyers, like the Saudis or Chinese, who tellingly rely on brokers to sanitize their purchases.
CCC most likely attracts NIMBYs and BANANAs. They also seem to agree with many GREENs who want things to stay exactly as they are, with no changes allowed, The trees cannot be cut, the buildings must be exactly as they were 40-90-150 years ago, no more no less, because We Say So.
Sorry, I have a very negative opinion of those boards that seem to think they have the power to control anything and everything they deem to be within their purview.
Their span of control apparently was not limited appropriately when the boards were established. They were created to handle a specific set of problems, but have the apparent ability to form and shape their areas of interest as they see fit. Much like the octupus that can change their color to match the locale, and change shape to fit totally through very small aperatures, CA boards (239 per Wikipedia at last count) will squirm their way into continued existence as long as they are allowed to do so. They never die, just like the eternal cancer cells. IMO
Jeff Carter has a good take on this topic. Most people don’t change their views in response to events that seem, to outsiders, to contradict those views. Instead they rationalize the events in ways that are consistent with their views. That’s the path of least resistance.
You can see this in other areas than politics. The point about “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions” is that the people in control of a scientific field rarely change their minds in response to strong evidence that the dominant paradigm in their field is wrong. Instead the dominant paradigm shifts as the supporters of the old paradigm die off and are replaced by people who support the new paradigm. To give a political example, older American Jews who support the Democrats aren’t likely to become Republicans in response to the anti-Jewish shift in Democratic Party politics. What seems likely is that Jews as a whole will become increasingly Republican as the older Jews die off and younger, more religious, more politically conservative Jews become increasingly representative.
Maybe some CA voters will decide that the fires result from systemic failure and that the system needs to be changed. Some of those voters will leave CA and its voter rolls. Of those who stay and want change, many will think it enough to make personnel changes at the top or in middle-management of the State apparatus. Few will draw a connection between Green ideology, or the size and intrusiveness of CA govt, and the kind of poor decision making that puts DEI mandates on fire departments, proscribes controlled burns and brush clearing, and assigns low value to dam and reservoir maintenance. Many of the people who lost their homes will be exhausted and financially drained by the recovery process and will lack the energy for political activism. It may be in CA as it has been in other dysfunctional Democrat-run states, where fed-up normal people leave, there is increasing social disorder, and people who have the means isolate themselves for self-protection.