Elections

This is (apparently, so far) shaping up to be a political defeat for the unions, the Democrats, and Obama.

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48% Back GOP Governor in Wisconsin Spat, 38% Side With Unions.

So far, it looks that way.

If these sorts of numbers hold up, the unions, the Democrats, and Mr. Obama will have managed to turn a local setback into a major defeat by accepting battle on a ground not of their own choosing.

(I wanted poll numbers, and I went to Patrick Ruffini’s Twitter stream, knowing if there were any, he’d have them.)

That poll is a national, not a Wisconsin poll.

What are the Wisconsin-only numbers? Last week Walker was apparently behind.

The question was:

As you may know, Gov. Scott Walker has proposed a plan to limit the pay of government workers and teachers, increase their share of the cost of benefits, and strip some public-employ unions of much of their power. We’d like to know if APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of Gov. Walker’s plan.

43% approved, 53% disapproved. But that was last week, the question is slanted, events have moved on and that is only one poll. (That same poll found that by 55/36 people wanted the Democrat senators to return to the capitol.)

I don’t see any other Wisconsin-only polls. If anyone knows of one please put a link in the comments.

It is too early to say how this will all play out.

Madison Rally

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Compared to the ethnic mix of Chicago, where every race and ethnic group is visible in any crowd of any size, it is always weird to go to Wisconsin and see thousands of people who are all white on both sides of an issue. Not that there is anything wrong with that.

(Further observations and assessments of the protest / counter-protest in Madison below the fold.)

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Getting to a Wisconsin Senate Quorum

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Wisconsin Senate rules require a 3/5 quorum in the Senate. There are currently 19 Republican senators, and 14 Democrat senators.

The GOP needs one more to get to 20.

The Democrat senators have apparently said they will stay away for weeks if necessary.

If the GOP majority could replace one Democrat with a Republican, that would give them 20. The remaining Democrat state senators could stay in Illinois watching ESPN and chatting up the waitresses as long as they want. The GOP could proceed without them.

If the length of play really is weeks then Article XIII, Sec. 12 of the Wisconsin Constitution, which provides for recall elections, could be used.

The qualified electors of the state of any congressional, judicial or legislative district or of a county may petition for the recall of any incumbent elective officer after the first year of the term for which the incumbent was elected … .

So, any recall could only be directed at Senators elected in 2008, not 2010.

Looking at the Democrats elected to the Wisconsin Senate in 2008 it appears that Democrat Sen. Jim Holperin won a squeaker, with 51% over his Republican opponent, in an open race. So, Sen. Holperin is the most vulnerable Democrat Wisconsin state senator.

The Wisconsin Constitution requires:

The recall petition shall be signed by electors equalling at least twenty-five percent of the vote cast for the office of governor at the last preceding election, in the state, county or district which the incumbent represents

It is not easy to determine how many people this is, but I estimate it to be about 100,000 people total, so 25,000 or so to be 25%. That is probably not grossly wrong. If someone has the exact number please put it in the comments. If the signatures for the petition can be gathered:

The filing officer with whom the recall petition is filed shall call a recall election for the Tuesday of the 6th week after the date of filing the petition or, if that Tuesday is a legal holiday, on the first day after that Tuesday which is not a legal holiday.

So, the total time to get a recall election scheduled is the time to gather the signatures in Wisconsin Senate District 12 plus six weeks. Call it two months or so total if the GOP made a serious effort, which is late April.

Could the GOP get a campaign going in Holperin’s district to recall him, have the election, and get a shenanigan-proof 20 seat guaranteed quorum before Memorial Day?

Am I missing anything here?

(I was at the rally today. Holperin’s name was mentioned as a possible recall target. I wrote this post before I heard that.)

Wisconsin Freedom Rally: Tomorrow, Saturday, Madison

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I STAND WITH SCOTT WALKER RALLY.

Saturday, February 19 · 12:00pm 3:00pm
Location Wisconsin State Capitol, South Steps

Who else is going?

AWOL Wisconsin Democrat State Senators: Contact Them and Demand They Show Up to Vote, and If They Don’t, Recall Them

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“The Democrats failed to show up when the Senate started its business around midday Thursday, and the sergeant at arms began looking for them. If he’s unable to find them, he’s authorized to seek help, including potentially contacting police.”

This is outrageous. A strong (peaceful, lawful, orderly) response is really needed. This confrontation will set the tone for all further reform efforts in the country, in other states, and in Washington. The Wisconsin GOP has shown courage and taken the lead. They need to be backed up.

These tactics are being test-driven in Wisconsin. They will be repeated all over the country if they are not stopped here.

The Address, phone, fax and email info for all Wisconsin Senators can be found here, identified by party.

Visit, call, fax, or email the Democrat Senators and demand that they show up to vote.

This is not just a Wisconsin issue. People from anywhere in the country, or even the world, say, Egypt, who are interested in the survival and success of democracy, may want to make that contact.

If any of them fail to do so, Wisconsin law provides for the recall of elected officials. Senators who are refusing to show up to vote, to prevent a quorum on a matter of grave public importance, should be recalled. See: Wisconsin Const. Art. XIII, Sec. 12. Some helpful discussion of the mechanics of a recall in Wisconsin can be found here.

Is there anyone up there in a Wisconsin Tea Party to get the protest going?

Where is the Dane County Tea Party when you need it!