Military Affairs

Zogby International released a poll of troops serving in Iraq that has become rather controversial. The poll supposedly shows that an overwhelming majority of the troops (72%) think that the US should exit the country within the next year. They also report that only 23% said that the US should stay in country for as long as we are needed.

There are other issues that the poll covers. 93% of the respondents allegedly stated that removing the threat of WMD’s wasn’t sufficient reason for the Iraq invasion, and 68% said that the real reason was to simply depose Saddam. 85% said that the invasion was to punish Saddam for his role in 9/11.

I’m deeply suspicious of this poll for a variety of reasons. The most compelling is that none of the troops I’ve come in contact with have expressed these views. It could very well be that all of the people serving in the military that have spoken to me have a minority opinion, but this seems to stretch probability a bit.

Murdoc Online has been talking about the poll, and he has the same reservations that I do. The money shot is the assertion from Zogby that four out of five of the troops oppose using internationally banned weapons such as napalm and white phosphorus. Murdoc isn’t shy about voicing his opinion on this little nugget, and I agree completely with him.

As a firearm instructor I’ve had many conversations with people serving in the military about weapons that have been banned due to political considerations. Unless there is some compelling reason presented that will change my mind, the statement that the troops agree with these bans looks like a complete fabrication.

Another compelling reason for caution is that this poll seems to align almost perfectly with the Democrat’s talking points in most areas. This looks too good to be true so far as the Dems are concerned, and you know what they say about things that are too good to be true.

Murdoc is still tracking down the particulars, and anyone interested in this issue should check his blog regularly. The main issue now seems to be that it is very difficult to get Zogby to own up to any details about their methodology. You know, which questions were asked and how they were presented. They won’t even tell you if you pony up $20 USD for their big summary. Very strange.

If you are interested in reading what other milbloggers are saying then Glenn has a roundup.

The Canadian government has had a great deal of trouble in replacing their obsolete submarine fleet. It came to a head last year when the Canadians purchased four British Upholder class submarines. One of the subs, renamed the HMCS Chicoutimi, suffered from a series of accidents while it was being sailed to Canada from England. One crewman lost his life, and the boat was abandoned and had to be towed back to Britain by American and English vessels.

This has been a very embarrassing episode for the Canadian government and military. The civilian press has questioned the need for a silent service at all, something that appears nothing less than surreal to those of us who pay attention to military affairs. Last time I looked, Canada has more coastline to patrol than any other country in the world. Removing a vital asset such as a submarine fleet from your navy is a sure way to open gaping holes in the national defense.

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Four people have been arrested in Los Angeles and charged with smuggling vital defense secrets to China. The information believed to have been transferred includes details on the Aegis battle-management system, a vital component of U.S. cruisers and destroyers, and on the new Virginia-class attack submarines. Officials said that based on a preliminary assessment, China now will be able to track U.S. submarines. It is also believed that information was provided which would facilitate the development of electromagnetic pulse weapons, which could disrupt electronics over a wide area, as well as information on unmanned aerial vehicles.

U.S. intelligence officials said the case remains under investigation but that it could prove to be among the most damaging spy cases since the 1985 case of John A. Walker Jr., who passed Navy communication codes to Moscow for 22 years.

Here is the (rather brief) New York Times article on this matter. Read it for yourself, and see if you think it properly represents the seriousness of what has apparently happened here.

Do you think that this will receive anywhere near the media attention which has been devoted to the Valerie Plame affair?

(also posted at Photon Courier)

This post at Murdoc Online reports that the Philippines have retired the last of their fighter aircraft. As of October 1st, the Philippines are without any dedicated air defense planes. Some trainer aircraft have been modified to act as makeshift fighters, but I don’t think anyone expects them to do any good if a shooting war starts.

But the prospects of actual combat are very remote, and the reasons for that have much to do with the defense umbrella provided by the United States and Australia. Any foreign power looking to make war on the Philippines would essentially have to get permission from the Anglosphere, and I just don’t see that happening in the foreseeable future.

The stated reason for the decision to junk their fighters was economics. The Philippine government has to concern itself with two serious internal threats: Communist guerrillas in the back country and Islamic terrorists in the South. In both cases the enemy is dispersed, desperate to avoid a direct battle, and difficult to eradicate. Fighter aircraft are of little use in this sort of conflict, and the limited defense budget could be better spent on forces that are better suited to dealing with insurgents.

This decision by the Philippine government isn’t unprecedented. New Zealand decided in 2001 to disband their own air combat wing, and their reasons for doing so are also economic in nature. But, unlike the Philippines, New Zealand doesn’t face any internal threats. They wanted to use the cash to fund social welfare programs.

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The military analysis blog Strategypage.com always has something interesting and topical. Case in point is a discussion of the US military’s recruiting efforts. (Scroll down to the post dated Sept. 1, 2005.)

If you’ve been following the news then you’ve probably gotten the impression that service in Iraq is so unpalatable that it’s almost impossible to get anyone to sign up for military service. SP says that this is not the case, with reenlistment and recruiting rates for combat units exceeding expectations. Iraq is a selling point instead of a liability.

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