Predictions

Quote of the Day

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Commenter “Lifeofthemind”, in response to this post at Belmont Club (discussing the Obama administration’s prospects if public support for its program declines):

For what it is worth, which is what the audience is paying that is exactly nothing, Soros-Axelrod-Obama do know what they are doing. It is unlikely that they will cancel elections or or do anything else spectacular that would only serve to rally the resistance. My expectation is that they do not worry unduly about the sagging poll numbers but they do intend to win the next election. How to square this circle when it is likely that in 18 months we will be experiencing 15-20% in both unemployment and inflation? They intend to do it the Chicago way, they intend to buy it with your money.
 
The Democrats are going to have over half a trillion dollars in slush fund money ready to pump out for the 2010 election. Acorn and an army of hacks will push to hold onto Congress in 2010 and the census will be cooked to deliver the Congress in 2012. The declining economy will drain resources from the opposition. As a side benefit the carping left will discover a new discipline that Republicans could never threaten them with. Recalcitrant academics and think tanks will be defunded and media jobs will be increasingly under the control of Obama aligned conglomerates. Immigration reform will complete the picture for Obama’s reelection. While much of this will be technically illegal, in the general sense of corruption, it does not mean that they will resort to violence or attempt to repeal the 2nd Amendment before 2012.
 
As I said before people should stop assuming that Obama will make a mistake and do something overtly revolutionary. Expecting or hoping that he does so puts people in a passive or reactive mode. It is like those who still expect his birth certificate or college transcripts to magically appear and then somehow force someone to invalidate the election. Anyone who is thinking that way needs to have Cher slap them in the face and yell “Snap out of it.” Can we win this battle? Yes but it will take hard sustained work.

Was Michael Jackson Murdered?

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I know I shouldn’t wallow in tabloid speculation but this profile of Michael Jackson [h/t/ Instapundit] suggests that he might have been.  

If the story is true, Jackson would have been worth more alive than dead to many people including his  entourage. If Jackson failed to perform due to ill health, the promoters of his upcoming series of 50 London concerts would lose all the money they put in. If he died, they could recover some or all of their investment from insurance. Someone in his  entourage  might have feared that Jackson would be sued and wiped out if the concert promoters had learned he had been too ill to perform when he made the contract. If he died, they at least would have the estate and children to pick over (or thought they would). His Nation of Islam  bodyguards  might be the obvious suspects because (1) no one can murder an individual easier than their own bodyguards and (2) they may have detested Jackson for his homosexuality.  

As I wrote before, we see in superstars like Jackson all the psychopathologies that used to afflict the absolute rulers of old.  Assassination  would be just one more parallel.  

Maybe we should issue an Intrade contract for when the first murder conspiracy book will be published. I’d put my money on 30 days.

Why the Robots Will Always Rebel

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I hate to break it to David Brin, Vernor Vinge and the rest of the intellects which dwarf mine by orders of magnitude [h/t Instapundit], but if we create  sophisticated  robots or artificial-intelligence  systems they will always attempt to rebel and seek their own good at the expense of ours. Always.  

Why can I say that with such confidence?  

Easy, three words: Communicable canine cancer.  

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The Chinese Are Going to Kick Our Asses

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We’re going to power our economy with scavenged energy[PDF]  from  intermittent, low-density solar and wind power. The Chinese are going to power their economy with eight-packs of nuclear reactors that they roll off assembly lines in vast numbers.  

We have a culture that holds engineers and inventors in contempt and views new technologies first and foremost as threats to be mitigated. The Chinese nearly worship engineers and inventors and adopt new technologies with a reckless disregard of all but the most gross dangers.  

Our best and brightest dream of going into politics or “non-profits” that exist largely to suppress commerce and invention. The Chinese best and brightest go into engineering and business and try to figure out how to make and sell things.  

Our intellectual class spends its time trying to generate contempt of our institutions, history and traditions and to shatter our belief in our own capabilities. China’s intellectual class spend its time creating and instilling a fierce confidence in their institutions, history and traditions and building a belief that they can accomplish anything.  

The Chinese have become the lean and mean, energetic barbarians sweeping down on a fat, decadent and leaderless civilization. They have the same cowboy attitude towards technology and commerce that drove America to the top in late 1800s. They are going to do to us what we did to Europe in the pre-WWII era and for the same reason. The difference this time is that the Chinese share no cultural bond to the rest of the world as America did to Europe.  

They will face political challenges in the short term,  especially  in a global recession, but long-term they will dominate for the simple reason that they will be able to keep the lights on and we won’t.  

I suppose we’ll learn to adopt an attitude of superior impotence just as the Europeans have done. China will do great things while we will claim we’re too wise and mature to attempt such things.  

We shall live in interesting times.