Yet in the world as it really is, events are unforeseen and trends materialize overnight. Where we live, unpredictability reigns. The last thing we should do if we want to know what the future will look like is extrapolate.
Quotations
Quote of the Day
Jeff Medcalf in a comment on a post by Rand Simberg:
It’s funny, but Adelman exactly fits a pattern I’ve been noticing. Excluding low-information voters, who largely vote on emotional or tribal bases, the people that I am seeing supporting Obama largely hope that he doesn’t mean what he says, while those that oppose him largely believe he means exactly what he says.
Hmm, where have we read similar ideas?
UPDATE: Richard Epstein’s thoughts.
“The overall impression one gets is that the Senator doesn’t really care about the positions he takes, as long as he gets to be President.”
A comment on the latest presidential debate by Jonathan Lipow, Oberlin College, in a press release from Economists for McCain:
As for healthcare, Sen. Obama ceaselessly attacks Sen. McCain for advocating the elimination of tax breaks for employer-provided health insurance. It is difficult to square this position with that of Obama’s chief economic advisor, Jason Furman, who recently published a paper that argues that this tax break is a scam that benefits the rich while actually making it more difficult for lower income people to obtain insurance. Once again, it is difficult to understand why Obama is ignoring the views of his own advisors. The overall impression one gets is that the Senator doesn’t really care about the positions he takes, as long as he gets to be President.
(If you google “economists for mccain” the top result is a link to a page on the Obama campaign’s web site. The real link to Economists for McCain is found only several links down the Google search results page. I don’t know if this happens because the Obama people are more search-engine savvy or because Google is biased in favor of Obama, but with Google politically-sensitive search results seem always to be either neutral or to break in favor of the Left. I’ll be interested to see if Google does some kind of celebratory logo change on the day after an Obama victory. No doubt Google would receive little anti-trust or other regulatory scrutiny under an Obama administration.)
Our Poker Game vs. Saddam Hussein
From a comment by Aaron C. at Vodkapundit:
The Iraq war was a no brainer. Saddam had been a threat to the region which prevented growth and development throughout, he used the implied threat to bully neighboring countries, al qaeda types and other small minded anti-americans saw allowing Saddam’s apparent (real or not) transgressions as taking face from America, and Saddam’s large army and the uncertainty of WMD made taking on Iran impractical.
We had pocket Aces, the flop was two Aces and a King. Saddam was bidding up the pot and bullying his neighbors suggesting he had a full house. What are we supposed to do, fold? We have 4 aces, it doesn’t matter whether or not Saddam has the boat. If he wants to go all in, you take him all in.
Worth reading in full.
Quote of the Day
Fair Value accounting should be changed immediately. It does not work when there are no market prices. If we had Fair Value accounting, as interpreted today, in the early 1990’s the United States financial system would have crashed. Accounting should not drive economic activity, it should reflect it.
–John Allison, President & CEO of BB&T, in his letter to Congress: Key Points on “Rescue” Plan From A Healthy Bank’s Perspective