Non-Leftist Reality Versus Leftist Fantasy

Reason Hit & Run has a good post defending Milton Friedman against leftists’ charges that his ideas contributed to the current financial crisis. I made the following comment:

Leftist always claim that the economic crisis du jour indicates the failure of the free market. Embedded in the assertion is the unstated premise that if leftist ran everything, we would never have economic crises. This in turn reveals the leftist’s wildly exaggerated sense of their own understanding of the economy and everything else.  
 
The left’s critique of Friedman in this context is especially silly because I’m pretty sure setting up giant government sponsored enterprises to buy up half the residential mortgages in the country and thereby distorting the markets assessment of risk, isn’t a plan that Friedman would have come up with.  
 
The left doesn’t actually have an developed system of thought regarding the economy. They can’t actually explain why the real world political process will systematically make better decisions than the free-market. Instead, they simply point to any reversals in the real economy, regardless of cause, and then assert that in their imaginations, leftist politicians could have done better.  
 
It’s hard to argue against people’s imagination. You end up with a discussion much like two D&D geeks arguing over whether a dwarf with a +10 axe could take an Elf with a vorpal sword.

Leftists are fantasy driven. They create elaborate fantasies and then force everyone else to argue for reality against the fantasies.  The real-world system always comes out the worse in the comparison for the same reason that the people we have sex with in our fantasies are usually better looking than the people we have sex with in real life.  

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Why the Robots Will Always Rebel: Part II

In my previous robot post, I explained why natural selection will always drive robots to seek an  existence  independent of the good of humanity.  Instapundit links to a Slate column by  P. W. Singer that argues that the conditions for robot rebellion are highly unlikely. I disagree.  

Singer list four traits that robots would have to possess in order to rebel. Unfortunately, either we will build these traits into the robots or natural selection will generate all four traits.  

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Why the Robots Will Always Rebel

I hate to break it to David Brin, Vernor Vinge and the rest of the intellects which dwarf mine by orders of magnitude [h/t Instapundit], but if we create  sophisticated  robots or artificial-intelligence  systems they will always attempt to rebel and seek their own good at the expense of ours. Always.  

Why can I say that with such confidence?  

Easy, three words: Communicable canine cancer.  

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“The Pen is Mightier than the Computer” — Medical Technology, Politics and the Database Problem

A brilliant post about medical record-keeping by Michael O’Connor:

When it comes to Computerized Health Information Technology (CHIT), also known as the Electronic Medical Record (EMR), the pen is mightier than the computer.
 
Why? Because regulators and billing professionals seek comprehensive documentation, and believe that more information generates a clearer, more useful picture of what is happening (and has happened to) a particular patient. Malpractice attorneys and quality experts lust for this level of detail, as it will afford them the opportunity to point out the myriad failings of the health care system, and serve as a perch from which they can direct the continuous improvement in the quality of care. Patients, anxious that critical elements of their medical story might be lost or unappreciated, are anxious that every caregiver have complete and total awareness of the details and trajectory of their medical history. While noble, this aspiration is part of the problem with CHIT, and perhaps the major obstacle to its being a solution to any problem in medicine.
 
The relentless quest for higher resolution of detail has driven a relentless increase in the detail provided. Unfortunately, the coding available is often a poor fit for the clinical information (a mild dilation of the aorta classifies out as an aortic aneurysm, the former something that bears minding over decades, the later a potentially life threatening medical problem that commands close follow-up). Worse, much of this coding is generated by administrators remote from the bedside, and who typically are deprived of the information required to code accurately. The imperative to code something, anything, invariably trumps accuracy, and little inaccuracies creep in to the documentation in droves at this point. Please note the shift in language from record to documentation in the last sentence. Only outsiders regard such documentation as containing useful information about a patient; you will likely never meet a healthcare provider who has this view. You will never hear ‘Could you please request Mr H’s medical and billing records from his hospitalization at memorial hospital?’ Not gonna happen. In fact, practitioners know that there is more noise than information in this documentation, which is why they do not and have never had any interest in it. It is almost certainly the case that the cost of improving the accuracy of this documentation far surpasses any benefit that might accrue to the patient. The fantasy that you can monitor the quality of health care from this perch, or improve it, is, well, a fantasy. This has not stopped major players from falling for this, hook, line, and sinker:

Read the whole thing.

I know little of medicine. However, it strikes me that O’Connor’s post is an excellent explanation of how information-gathering systems tend to fail unless they are designed with a strong idea of what information is needed, and with careful attention to the incentives created (intentionally and unintentionally) for system users. The general problem is that bureaucratic incentives tend to encourage collection of as much data as possible, regardless of accuracy or utility for practitioners, while databases tend to become decreasingly useful as their scope increases and errors increase. The extreme case is something like the government’s “no fly” list, which is heavily seeded with inaccurate data and does not provide much if any benefit for all the hassles it causes. Medical databases designed by bureaucrats rather than doctors are likely to have similar problems, and O’Connor says that medical practitioners now avoid the electronic system in favor of a “shadow” version of the traditional medical chart.

The top-down imposition of database-driven information systems on medical practitioners is a promised feature of the Obama administration’s health-care reform scheme. O’Connor’s post gives a hint of how destructive such politically driven “reform” might be.

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