Month: May 2004

Not everyone has In-Cog-Nito’s tolerance for risk. For those of us not equipped with brass appurtenances, reducing investment risk is often a goal. To increase risk, including upside risk, you issue debt, either by buying on margin or selling short, which is really just borrowing shares of stock instead of cash. To reduce risk, you acquire debt. Here is one way to do it for free.

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Here are the latest efforts in the In-Cog-Nito Needs Money Fund.

Ameritrade sucks, don’t use them. They may be fine once you get up and running, but the initial process to get up and running is too slow for my taste. The main complaint I have is that they won’t let you short stocks without the funds clearing. And with ACH transfers (they claim it’s fast in their ads), it takes a good five days for the funds to settle. Starting without the ability to short in this market is like boxing with one hand tied behind your back; it takes away half your arsenal. Their interface is also too cluttered for my taste. I was a huge fan of Datek when I first started: clean web interface, excellent value in terms of commission costs and margin interest, fast and responsive customer service. Ameritrade bought Datek a few years ago. I tried also going the route of re-opening my old Datek account. It was nice to see my old trading history still preserved there – a stroll down memory lane. Other than that, being a part of Ameritrade, their customer service seemed to have gone down hill as well. Obviously, I’m a more demanding user than your average investor, but it never hurts to have the best available tools at your disposal eh? So learn from my first mistake, don’t go with Ameritrade.

I opened an account with Scottrade today, and so far so good. They remind me of what Datek was about five years ago. Clean interface. Good fast service. Super easy forms – they have the shortest options form I have seen of any brokerage (1 page). Their web interface is something else. Technology and competition have really upped the ante in what is available to the general public in terms of information, execution, and trading tools. One nice bonus is that you get free Dow Jones real time news. It’s not really that important for most investing purposes unless you day trade, but it’s nice to have nonetheless. Seven bucks a trade and relatively low margin rates are more pluses.

The positive of not getting up and running fast is that it’s a week off to get up to speed on the feel of the market. I’ve set up a free trial subscription to Realmoney.com – part of Jim Cramer’s Thestreet.com. It was my go-to site for news when I first started. They still put out good articles, but Cramer seems to have lost some of his luster – i.e. his performance isn’t that good now, based on his Action Alert Portfolio. My biggest thing is that Nortel (NT) makes up about 6% of his portfolio. It seems Nortel’s comeback was based on accounting shenanigans. I remember one of Cramer’s constant sayings years ago was that he kept a post-it on his screen saying accounting troubles = sell. Seems he is not keeping to his own advice, and it’s hurting him. Scott Moritz over there is still putting out good articles, primarily because he seems to be a natural skeptic, or at least he writes with a healthy dose of skepticism – something you always want in the market. One thing I really don’t like about Realmoney.com now is that they try to nickel and dime you on all their services. If you want to read articles from so and so, you have to pay this much each month. It’s good for their business obviously, especially if the writer has built up a loyal audience. But it’s quite a sticker shock for new investors. The best thing I liked about them back then was that a newbie can get strong opinions, and everything they had to offer about the market for twenty or thirty bucks a month. An excellent value proposition. But if you want everything now, it’s going to cost ya.

So what to do? One thing I liked back then was the Yahoo message boards on stocks. They’re easily available and are strong opinions for free. Most of it is garbage, but I like to think of them as pre-cursors to blogging. People literally write whatever they’re thinking, and if you take it on the merits of their arguments backed up by facts and links to relevant articles, it’s useful. The main thing, as with all news, is you have to pick up the ability to filter out the good, and toss the bad. Don’t get me wrong, message boards shouldn’t be your main source of information. But there’s more than one way to look at it.

A couple of stock specific thoughts: VIP and MBT are getting hammered. Their charts aren’t too pretty. I would let it play itself out before going long on these two.

BOBJ (I pronounce it Bob-Jay): I’ve been itching to short this one. Their being a French company is reason enough. But the chart ain’t too pretty, and it looks like they’re starting to have some accounting problems. They’re a business software firm, and from what I know, software firms tend to be aggressive in their revenue recognition to boost sales. BOBJ has close to 80% gross margins, but only 1% of their revenues make it to their bottom line. This says to me there’s a lot of waste going on. The SEC has an informal probe with regards to their deferred revenue, or backlog. It won’t be a fast short, but it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. I’m guessing if there’s smoke, there’s a fire somewhere.

Cheers.

I received a notice from a worthy-seeming entity called the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies. They are presenting a series of lectures entitled “Repairing the Rift: Reconstructing the Transatlantic Relationship in the Wake of the Iraq War.” (Details here.) It is on Friday, May 14, 2004 and Walter Russell Mead will be speaking. It sounds like a cool event. Sometimes I do wish I lived in DC.

Incidentally, I finished WRM’s new book, Power, Terror, Peace, and War : America’s Grand Strategy in a World at Risk. It is very good. Details to follow.

Somehow the Chicago Boyz have decided to seriously lower their standards and allow me to stop flitting about and join in their fun.

I’m TM Lutas, your local Romanian, Byzantine Catholic, minarchist, Windows, Mac, Linux, and visionary blogger. And I intend to defend this blogging niche against all comers. B-)

Seriously, it’s a real joy to gain exposure to the wider audience of the Chicago Boyz group blog and to have a place where I can talk about local and economics issues. My general rants will continue to be exposed over at my main blog Flit(TM) hosted by Bruce Rolston of Flit (and I’ve never really figured out why he gave me a blogging platform either).

Excellent speech by Don at The Conspiracy to Keep You Poor & Stupid. Proud to say, one of the smartest people I know.

The McKinsey Global Institute estimates that the volume of offshore outsourcing will increase by 30 to 40 percent a year for the next five years. Forrester Research estimates that 3.3 million white-collar jobs will move overseas by 2015. Gartner estimates that by the end of this year, 1 out of every 10 IT jobs will be outsourced overseas. Deloitte Research estimates the outsourcing of 2 million financial-sector jobs by 2009.

These aren’t even really “estimates.” They’re forecasts. No, they’re S.W.A.G.’s — stupid wild-ass guesses.

Remember, these consultants are the same geniuses who said, four years ago, right about the time when the NASDAQ was at 5000, that Internet traffic would grow at 90% a year forever, and that by 2002 every American citizen would have digital video-on-demand beamed via low earth orbit satellite to his cell phone. Hey, if that were true I could be watching “Friends” right now.

Let’s get real. Suppose Forrester is right, that 3.3 million white-collar jobs will move overseas by 2015. That’s eleven years, folks. That’s 300,000 jobs a year, or 25,000 a month. Today there are 130 million jobs in the United States.

So the cost is 2/100 of 1% of jobs each month. Don’t worry about it. On average the US economy generates job growth 10 times that much every month.

But it’s not just that even the wild-ass guesses are actually quite small in the grand scheme of things. The worst part of it is that these forecasts inevitably just look at costs, and never benefits.