I’m relieved that Bush appears to have won, but I was pretty nervous earlier. Here’s an Intrade screenshot (emphasis added) from Tuesday afternoon, after the pro-Kerry exit-poll rumors but before there were any strong public indications that Bush would do well.
I am a bit concerned that Bush’s margin of victory in Ohio will not be enough to forestall a Kerry challenge. There is still enough uncertainty as I write this, at 2:00 AM EST, that Intrade’s Bush re-election contract is trading at only around 93. It should be at 98 or 99 if Bush has a lock on it. I hope that Kerry will have enough sense not to drag this out, and that Bush will soon emerge as the clear winner.
5 thoughts on “Touch and Go”
It’s not over. They are going to have to count the provisional ballots in Ohio, by the look of it, according to articles on Command Post.
Pretty limited-risk proposition, sell Bush at 93 like it’s going out of style, and hope you lose it all.
At almost 2:00 AM Chicago time, it appears that Bush’s 125,000 vote margin is going to be sufficient to forestall any whinging from the Democrat camp, but I had to check the clock when Edwards came out and whimpered his challenge, I thought it was whine o’clock.
Their going to have to do some SERIOUS scraping to find enough ways to challenge the votes in Ohio, but apparently the OH Attorney General had previously stated that any investigation into provisional ballots would not begin until Monday the 13th, per Fox News.
I am calling this a win and sleeping the sleep of the safe.
i was trying to buy. i think it actually reached 25 at one point. unfortunately the site was all screwed up and it wouldn’t take my credit card. all i have is my crappy bush stock that i bought at 49 on thursday.. darn!
and i totally missed the tech bubble as well! :-(
Chicago Boyz should know better. What we witnessed and should have been taken into account by the statisticians, the economic fallacy of composition. The exit polls were skewed because of high expectations. They went early to avoid lines and in-turn created them. When in became quiet later in the day, the stadium parking lot was empty. Sorry Fahrenheit 9/11, the Passion of the Christ was the winner!
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