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  • “If we want an intact Iraq, the price of having one without fostering long-term strife across the Middle East is pushing Iran back out of Iraq.”

    Posted by Jonathan on October 27th, 2017 (All posts by )

    J.E. Dyer: Turning point: Iran’s influence in Iraq tipping to dominance:

    In 6 years, Iran has dramatically transformed the operational landscape of Mesopotamia and the Levant. For multiple purposes, she now dominates and/or can use territory more than 200 mi. closer to key locations on the Med. coast. She has also built a formidable outpost in Syria and Lebanon.

    A troubling and I suspect accurate analysis. Worth reading in full.

     

    29 Responses to ““If we want an intact Iraq, the price of having one without fostering long-term strife across the Middle East is pushing Iran back out of Iraq.””

    1. dearieme Says:

      If you’d wanted to limit Iran’s influence on Iraq, not invading Iraq would have been a good first step.

      If you’d wanted to limit Iran’s influence on Syria, not fomenting an unsuccessful rebellion against Assad would have been a good first step.

    2. PenGun Says:

      That’s a useful piece. What seems to be ignored is that the people there know what has happened to their countries. They know America broke Iraq and Afghanistan and they know America has broken most of the middle east. They are there and the horror and carnage America has produced on such a massive scale is no secret.

      America the … well challenged anyway. Did you not know Iraq is about 60% + Shiite. Once you removed Sadam, there was nothing to keep the Sunnis in power. They will not gain power there soon. As Haider al-Abadi is a Shiite and has extensive ties to Iran it’s hard to see how you can separate Iraq and Iran.

      It was amusing watching Tillerson telling the Shiite militias they had to go home. Ummm they are home. They are largely Iraqi Shiites the PMU. Certainly the old fox Suleymani runs the show but that’s just smart. A picture of the master chillin’ wit da Kurds, just before the Talibani part of the Preshmega just pulled up stakes and left Kirkuk:

      https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMQQt0TXkAEObDu.jpg

      There have been a bunch of serious mistakes and installing the Sha in Iran and pushing over the Ukraine are the two that are now coming back, full of teeth and long memories.

      It’s been amusing to watch Syria toss SA 5/S200 from the 60s at the Israeli airforce, but somehow they now are confined to lobbing missiles in from Lebanon. The Syrian air space is kinda dangerous now. I hear someone tagged an Israeli F 35, but you know how rumors are.

    3. ssd Says:

      “If we want an intact Iraq, ………………pushing Iran back out of Iraq.”

      ِany mainstream Iraqi if you asked them or give them the names you brought in CPA and then handing them the power like:

      Nurie AlMaliki
      Ibrahin Jaafri
      Ali Shurstani
      Bader Party
      Daawa Party
      AlHakeem

      All will will advise you these are Iranian guys do shake hand with them?

      So USA handed Iraq to Iran under her eyes and I remind you the statement by Saudi Foreign Minister back when he said: US gave Iraq to Iran on Golden Plate??

    4. ssd Says:

      Who won the war in Iraq? (Here’s a big hint: It wasn’t the United States)

    5. MCS Says:

      Ssd: At the time, pre-invasion, I remember marveling at how lucky we were to have such a group of Iraqi patriots right there in Virginia. Willing to work tirelessly for the greater good, asking only a substantial salary and commission (all that they could steal) for their efforts.

      Iraq was such a garden spot, setting aside the mass terror, nerve gas use, shredders and dozens of mass graves (the construction and population of which remains the only proven competency of the Iraqi Army). How could we have known that the substantial number of people dependent on and responsible for carrying out the enlightened policies of Saddam would resist being “liberated”? The availability of high quality explosives was a genuine surprise.

    6. Brian Says:

      Pushing Iran out of Iraq is not currently possible. But it will happen the moment the mullahs are pushed out in Iran. That has to be the end goal, or STFU. I suspect people who know the world a bit better than ancient canadian commies are on the job. (And some people who know a bit less, alas, but at least trash like Ben Rhodes & Susan Rice, who I am positive know a lot less, are currently out.)

    7. Assistant Village Idiot Says:

      We didn’t actually install the Shah in 1953, but the CIA bragged it did and the political losers there preferred to blame us and nurse grievances, so it amounted to the same revenge motive.

      Michael Ledeen insisted all through the buildup to Iraq that if we were to invade anyone, it should be Iran. We’ll never know, now.

    8. dearieme Says:

      @MCS: the shredders story turned out to be bogus, I understand. Not that it matters except as an example of the lies fed to us proles.

    9. MCS Says:

      We invaded Iraq because we could. An Iran invasion would have required a Normandy level amphibious assault. We started building the landing craft for that in 1941. I doubt that we could deploy or support much more than a single division without access to large port facilities or years of preparation and ship building.

      Once we had access to a long land border, I think we missed an opportunity.

    10. Brian Says:

      Good heavens, who said anything about invading Iran?

    11. PenGun Says:

      “I suspect people who know the world a bit better than ancient canadian commies are on the job.”

      After reaming out several think tanks for their pitiful knowledge, and actually changing at least one narrative they were pushing, I could only agree partly. ;)

      My cute pic of the actual guy who engineered the Kurdish … defeat, doing it, should get a least a point.

    12. PenGun Says:

      In breaking news the Colonel who talks for the US Coalition is confused about current events. Telling the world there is a cease fire and then telling it, it’s failed. All just stupidity. What’s happening is:

      “Fishkhabur is more than just a border gate: it is the essential doorway for long-term American influence in Syria,”

      “And Iran wants to slam that gate shut.”

    13. ssd Says:

      MCS Says:
      October 28th, 2017 at 11:05 am
      Iraq was such a garden spot, setting aside the mass terror, ??

      Oh Yeh, MCS
      to correct your deafness and blindness about Iraq as usual from such people they never been in ME or they have thier naive view about that region due seen all the region in Gulf/Saudi style.

      To correct your blunt statement you made it put correctly for you:

      After Invasion 2003, Iraq became such a garden spot, setting aside the mass terror??

    14. ssd Says:

      Btw,MCS
      No one defending tyrant regime, and his major crime and criminals surrounded himself by his close brothers in law and relative all are criminal (there are more in run and in the whiled still there like Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri (There is still bounty on his head))>

      But let put in right prospects as you remembering, why some one work and shake hands with group “Willing to work tirelessly for the greater good, asking only a substantial salary and commission (all that they could steal)” unless the big boss prepared and find them they were a bounce and guid for hunting the big fish??

      What We Left Behind

    15. ssd Says:

      We invaded Iraq because we could. An Iran invasion would have required a Normandy level amphibious assault.

      The Axis of Evils:Iran, Iraq, and North Korea

      Think, which one were easy First to go ? Hint for you: Mullah in Iran already helping US in Afghanistan?

      America’s unlearned lesson

    16. ssd Says:

      Did you not know Iraq is about 60% + Shiite. Once you removed Sadam, there was nothing to keep the Sunnis in power.

      This one of big lies man?

      If you count all Iraqi according to faith/religion not Ethnically, then Sunni will be more than Shiites!

      but your Blind Into Baghdad they did not knew, or they just bunch of lairs.

    17. ssd Says:

      [deleted by Jonathan]

    18. MCS Says:

      Iran and Iraq are dangerous to the West only because oil generates enough money for serious WMD procurement/development. Absent that, they are of no more consequence than Zaire. This also makes it necessary to hold our noses and support the Saudis.

      I once thought of two possible ways of neutering Iraq. One was to permanently eliminate the oil fields. Not possible. the other was to truly nationalize them. To take all of the money and distribute it directly to the individual citizens and let the government survive on what they could retrieve. Iraqi military strength would have declined to European levels overnight.

      As it stands, I put the odds of an Iran/Israeli nuclear exchange around 80%. Nothing the West does can do anything but increase this. The Iranian weapons production establishment is beyond being knocked out or even seriously damaged by some sort of air strike or strikes. It has probably passed the point that sanctions can delay it much if at all.

      As far as the shredders, I’ll need more than your word on it. With well beyond 100K in mass graves a few more victims, no matter how singular their end might have been change nothing.

    19. ssd Says:

      It was amusing watching Tillerson telling the Shiite militias they had to go home.

      please send this man setting in US and taking your tax home he is Iranian rather than Iraqi (if you could)

      read what he writes about Khomeini and Mullah in Tehran

    20. Grurray Says:

      The S200 SAMs in Syria are from the 80s when the Soviets supplied them. The interesting part of that Israeli smackdown of the Syrian battery are the dogs that didn’t bark.

      So much for the vaunted Russian air defense bubble we have heard about. Whether the Russians are really operational or not; whether the Israelis are warning the Russians or just providing a respectful courtesy call. The result is still the same. The Israeli Air Force can attack Syria anytime it wants.

      And then there is Hezbollah. They are so powerful that their sworn enemy flies right on top of them to attack their ally. Proving repeatedly that they are a joke that would collapse in a heartbeat of the money from Iran was ever cut off.

      Iran and Hezbollah were losing the Syrian war until Russia stepped in. What actually may have been the real turning point is when arms and money to the rebels from the Gulf sheiks (and the CIA?) stopped flowing.

      They are all overrated. Backwards savages incapable of controlling more than their criminal enterprises. As long as we keep control over the Syria-Iraq border they will never achieve a land bridge.

    21. PenGun Says:

      “So much for the vaunted Russian air defense bubble we have heard about. Whether the Russians are really operational or not; whether the Israelis are warning the Russians or just providing a respectful courtesy call. The result is still the same. The Israeli Air Force can attack Syria anytime it wants.”

      Since the Russians and the Syrians unified their air defenses, about a month ago, the Israelis have only flown over Lebanon. It does seem the Syrians tagged an Israeli aircraft, that strayed, with a SA5/S200. The only way that could happen is the much improved, for them, radar environment. Apparently the F 35 is a pig from the rear. The reply was with long rage missiles from Lebanese airspace.

    22. Grurray Says:

      Their F-35 was hit by birds not by missiles.

    23. PenGun Says:

      “Their F-35 was hit by birds not by missiles.”

      Indeed that is the narrative in play.

    24. PenGun Says:

      It is very hard to tell what’s happening in Fishkhabour right now. No news but the various ‘usual suspects’ are starting to peep a bit, so I suspect the Kurds no longer control that part of the border.

      This means the land access to the Iraqi/Iran part of what has become know as Kurdistan is cut off, and the US can no longer pour weapons and supplies into that area. It will be by air only now. This is payback by Iran, and Iraq. The plethora of think tanks are upset and the US command is waffling rather nicely. Unless the US is prepared to fight the Iraqi army this is a done deal.

    25. PenGun Says:

      It’s over. Now we have a US force isolated in Northern Iraq and one with some land connections in Northern Syria. The ones at Al Tanf left, I believe, may be a few still there. Both forces are not large.

      We have Turkey, as much onside as Erdogan gets, and Syria, Iraq and Iran very much on the same page. There are ISIS to kill on the Iraqi/Syrian border, and the mess of Al Queda in Idlib to clean up. A couple more spots here and there and it’s largely over.

      Now the US has to come up with something to unravel this. Many people are waiting to see what it can pull out of that very old hat. ;)

    26. Ssd Says:

      [deleted]

    27. Grurray Says:

      We’re getting reports that Israel just bombed a factory and storage depot outside Homs, Syria. This is farther north and west than previous strikes around Damascus. This pretty much confirms that the IAF now operates throughout and polices the entire Lebanon-Syria border. The smuggling routes through these areas work both ways. It’s only a five hour drive from Homs to Raqqah.

    28. PenGun Says:

      Yes, they are firing quite long range missiles from Lebanon’s airspace. How long this will continue is hard to guess. One of Putin’s characteristics is opacity. ;)

    29. PenGun Says:

      Iraqi PMU units are moving to cut off the SDF as it tries for more Syrian oil.

      About the very old hat. ;) We have two directions being explored:

      The Bin Laden new/old paper release. They found some more stuff and bin Laden was colluding with Iran. OK. ;)

      Harari is in the Warrior Princes pocket now and has resigned in fear of assassination, by Iran of course. OK.