The themes of this update will be on issues of
– COVID-19 spread,
– World Headlines,
– US Good News,
– US Mixed News,
– A sample of US Relevant Coronavirus Stories,
– Medical Information of the Day,
– The SARS-CoV2 Virus and it’s COVID-19 infection ARE NOT THE FLU
– The On-Going Just-in-time, Sole Source in China Supply -Chain Crisis, and
– The social media and videos COVID-19 tracking source section.
Top line, There are currently 85,996 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide, including 2,942 fatalities as of the 29 February 2020 at 2:46 p.m. ET time hack on the BNO News corona virus tracking site (https://bnonews.com/index.p…/…/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/) There are 59 and growing nations including China plus three “Chinese special administrative regions” (Macao, Hong Kong and Taiwan) that have reported COVID-19 infections. China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Italy, Iran, Germany and R.O.K. all appear to have local, or endemic, spread of the disease.
The US may currently have endemic spread as the CDC has confirmed 62 cases of coronavirus in the US (and there late breaking news of a COVID-19 death in Washington State and the slimming of a senior care facility in Kirkland). These include 44 people who were aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, three people repatriated from China and 15 US cases.
Spread inside the US cases include:
Washington state: 1
Arizona : 1
World Headline Summary:
o Health authorities in Texas and Oregon report 12 new coronavirus cases in US
o US coronavirus case total hits 63, 2nd case ‘of unknown origin’ confirmed
o US issues travel advisory for Italy
o Italy says first case discovered in Lazio
o China, SK release nightly figures
o Google says employee who visited Zurich office has coronavirus
o France confirms 57 cases
o Italy reports 3 deaths in Lombardy; nat’l toll now 21; total cases 821
o Google employee tests positive for coronavirus after visiting Zurich office
o British man becomes 6th ‘Diamond Princess’ passenger to die
o Two Japanese dogs tested positive for coronavirus
o Mulvaney says school closures, transit disruptions may happen in US
o Dr. Tedros said Friday that there’s no evidence of ‘community outbreak’
o Mexico confirms 1st virus case [More below]
o Fauci warns virus could take ‘two years’ to develop
o Kudlow says “no higher priority” than the “health of the American people
o Toronto confirms another case
o WHO says 20 vaccines in development
o St. Louis Fed’s Bullard pours cold water on market hopes
o Netherlands confirms 2 more
o United cuts flights to Japan
o Advisor to CDC says shortage of tests in US creating a “bottleneck”
o Nigeria confirms first case in sub-saharan africa
o South Korea reports more than 1,000 new cases in under 48 hours
o Italy cases surpass 700
o WHO says virus will ‘soon be in all countries’
Good News — The Trump Administration is beginning to accept COVID-19 Reality. See:
Exclusive: U.S. postpones summit with ASEAN leaders amid coronavirus fears – sources
U.S. President Donald Trump had invited leaders of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to meet in Las Vegas after he did not attend a summit with the group in Bangkok in November.
“As the international community works together to defeat the novel coronavirus, the United States, in consultation with ASEAN partners, has made the difficult decision to postpone the ASEAN leaders meeting,” one of the sources, a senior administration official, told Reuters.
The official added that the United States values its relationships with ASEAN member nations and looks forward to future meetings.
Mixed News — Despite the Trump Administration taking huge steps in preparedness, they are both inadequate in scale and being mis-represented as to criticality.
Exhibit A of “inadequate” from Former FDA director Scott Gottlieb
Scott Gottlieb, MD@ScottGottliebMD
Tonight administration announced they are allowing high complexity U.S. labs to advance their own tests for #Coronavirus. Coupled with public health labs, which will be at full tilt by Friday using revised CDC test, capacity could reach 10,000+++ tests a day in next two weeks.
2,147 9:44 PM – Feb 28, 2020
And courtesy of the NYT’s virus live feed:
“The U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced Saturday that it was authorizing American laboratories to develop their own coronavirus tests, which should significantly increase the country’s testing capacity.
The effect could be rapid. About 80 labs and private companies have applied for emergency approval for tests they have already created. If they have submitted evidence that the tests work, the labs and companies will be able to use them immediately, rather than wait for the F.D.A. to complete reviews and issue approvals.
“This action today reflects our public health commitment to addressing critical public health needs and rapidly responding and adapting to this dynamic and evolving situation,” the F.D.A.’s commissioner, Stephen M. Hahn, said in a statement.
Experts have been frustrated with the limited availability of coronavirus tests in the U.S., which until now could only be provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Broader testing will enable more rapid detection and isolation of people who have the coronavirus to help contain the spread of disease.”
Trent Observation & Comment: We needed this level of testing (10K a day), which we will get in 2-weeks, about six weeks ago (Mid-January 2020). We will need 100,000 tests a day in about 2-weeks based upon exponential growth. Still, a 2.8 orders of magnitude improvement** is important as we are improving from a base of less than 500 COVID-19 tests in a six weeks. [ ** Assuming about 35 COVID-19 tests a day multiplied by ~285 to get roughly 10K a day.]
Exhibit B From the CDC:
CDC has a new category of COVID-19 tracking:
“A presumptive positive case has tested positive by a public health laboratory and is pending confirmatory testing at CDC.”
The above is due to CDC’s self-inflicted test kit shortages.
Trent’s Dead Serious Comment — Based on it’s 2014 performance with the Ebola outbreak at Dallas’ Texas Health Presbyterian, the CDC’s silence on the on-going collapse of the current non-vaccination based American public health standards on Tuberculosis and the on-going COVID-19 testing debacle. I’d have to say the CDC is a on-going, multi-decade long, Federal government conspiracy against the public interest.
Put this thought in the back of your head for later and if you have time, see my 2014 “Collapse of American TB Public Health” column on Chicagoboyz here: https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/44047.html
Exhibit C of “Inadequate” from the FDA:
This is a classic Fed bad news press release that passes information with a anodyne summary to placate the “Normies,” while the heart attack for the experts is buried behind a page or two long wall of text.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Supply Chain Update
For Immediate Release:
February 27, 2020
Commissioner of Food and Drugs – Food and Drug Administration
Stephen M. Hahn M.D.
Anodyne statement: The FDA has recognized there is a China supply chain problem for drugs, “nothing critical” impacted.
See text passage:
“Also, as part of our efforts, the FDA has identified about 20 other drugs, which solely source their active pharmaceutical ingredients or finished drug products from China. We have been in contact with those firms to assess whether they face any drug shortage risks due to the outbreak. None of these firms have reported any shortage to date. Also, these drugs are considered non-critical drugs.”
Heart attack: But we are officially telling you to ignore drug expiration dates until further notice.
See this text passage:
The FDA is using all our existing authorities to address COVID-19, and we welcome the opportunity to work with Congress to further strengthen our response capabilities and emergency preparedness. There are four specific proposals included in the President’s budget that would better equip the FDA to prevent or mitigate medical product shortages.
1 Lengthen Expiration Dates to Mitigate Critical Human Drug Shortages: Shortages of certain critical drugs can be exacerbated when drugs must be discarded because they exceed a labeled shelf-life due to unnecessarily short expiration dates. By expanding the FDA’s authority to require, when likely to help prevent or mitigate a shortage, that an applicant evaluate, submit studies to the FDA, and label a product with the longest possible expiration date that the FDA agrees is scientifically justified, there could be more supply available to alleviate the drug shortage or the severity of a shortage.”
This is a sample of US Relevant Coronavirus Stories
1. Wife of US soldier who has coronavirus in South Korea also infected, military says
By KIM GAMEL | STARS AND STRIPES Published: February 28, 2020
SEOUL, South Korea — The wife of an American soldier who tested positive for the new coronavirus also has been infected, the military said
Saturday as the total number of confirmed cases in South Korea neared 3,000.
The soldier was the first U.S. service member to contract the pneumonia-like illness, which has spread rapidly since first appearing in China late last year.
His wife has been in self-quarantine since Wednesday, when her husband tested positive, according to U.S. Forces Korea.
“She is currently being transported to a U.S. military hospital where she’ll be in isolation under direct medical care and supervision from U.S. military medical providers,” USFK said in a press release.”
2. Mexico confirms first 2 coronavirus cases, health official says
“Mexican health officials announced the country’s first two confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus on Friday, saying the patients are from Mexico City and the northern state of Sinaloa.
Mexico’s assistant health secretary, Hugo Lopez-Gatell, said a second test is still pending for the Sinaloa case, adding that doctors are “treating this as confirmed,” according to The Associated Press.”
3. Exclusive: U.S. weighs restrictions at border with Mexico over coronavirus threat
FEBRUARY 29, 2020 / 12:24 PM / UPDATED 11 MINUTES AGO
4. TEXAS – evacuee cases
SAN ANTONIO – The number of evacuees infected with the novel coronavirus climbed to 11 on Friday, per the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The CDC reports those infected with the coronavirus include nine from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, one from the Wuhan group of quarantined passengers and one that was transferred from the Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego, Calif.
San Antonio city officials maintain that the risk of the virus spreading to the general public is still low.
A total of 145 people remain under quarantine orders in San Antonio after two planes — one from Wuhan and one from Tokyo — arrived at Joint Base San Antonio Lackland.
5. Run, Hide and Hoard is breaking out in Hawaii:
Hoarding in the USA? Coronavirus sparks consumer concerns
FEBRUARY 28, 2020 / 3:38 PM / UPDATED 16 HOURS AGO
Brad Brooks, Andrew Hay
6. Coronavirus now in Oregon
Updated 6:43 PM; Today 5:26 PM
By Fedor Zarkhin | The Oregonian/OregonLive
Selected abridged statements from the article:
A Washington County teacher is sick with the first presumptive case of the new coronavirus in the state, Oregon health officials said Friday.
The person tested positive for coronavirus. The case needs to be confirmed by federal health officials. The patient is isolated at Kaiser Permanent Westside Medical Center. It is a case of community-spread disease. The person is a teacher at a Clackamas County school and may have exposed people there, health officials said, and had contact with people in Forest Hills Elementary School at Lake Oswego.
The state would not disclose their age, sex or specific condition.
Now, the school district is shutting down the school where the teacher works so that health officials can do their investigation and talk to employees and let families known their children could have been exposed.
Medical Information of the Day:
First, in the study referenced below, there was a 35% infection rate for those exposed to someone who had the COVID-19 infection. Put in real terms, 9 people caused 48 infections. So in these cases (see photo) the R0 was 5.3. That is one person infected five(+) people or three people will infect 16 more.
Secondary attack rate and superspreading events for SARS-CoV-2
Rosalind M Eggo
Adam J Kucharski
Published:February 27, 2020
“If transmission is stratified by contacts within and outside of the household, the relationship between R0 and household risk is: R0=SARHNH+ SARCNC, where SARH and SARC are the secondary attack rates within household and wider community (ie, outside household), respectively, and NH and NC are the numbers of at-risk contacts made, respectively.3 An infection with a high household SAR but a modest R0 would therefore suggest transmission is driven by a relatively small number of high-risk contacts. A large household SAR further suggests that between-household transmission risk is lower; otherwise the observed R0 would be larger.
More data are needed to reliably estimate the true within-household and between-household transmission for SARS-CoV-2; recent reports might be biased towards larger transmission events. However, if it transpires that most at-risk contacts have a close relationship with cases, and superspreading events tend to occur at large gatherings of these close contacts, measures to reduce infection risk during such gatherings and subsequent tracing of close contacts of cases might have a disproportionate effect on reducing overall transmission.
We declare no competing interests.”
Trent’s comment: Practical implication — This might mean families have to eat individually and apart?
Second, more on the COVID-19 reinfection phenomenon. Maybe it’s real?
CIDRAP – Some COVID-19 patients test positive days after recovery
Today, 05:48 PM
Or maybe there is good news regards “re-infection” of the recently cleared. It is increasingly look like the “re-infected” are actually people whose tests were false negatives that lead to their release.
Breadth of concomitant immune responses underpinning viral clearance and patient recovery in a non-severe case of COVID-19
Irani Thevarajan, Thi HO Nguyen, Marios Koutsakos, Julian Druce, Leon Caly, Carolien E van de Sandt, Xiaoxiao Jia, Suellen Nicholson, Mike Catton,
Benjamin Cowie, View ORCID ProfileSteven Tong, Sharon Lewin, View ORCID ProfileKatherine Kedzierska
We report the kinetics of the immune response in relation to clinical and virological features of a patient with mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) requiring hospitalisation. Increased antibody-secreting cells, follicular T-helper cells, activated CD4+ and CD8+ T-cells and IgM/IgG SARS-CoV-2-binding antibodies were detected in blood, prior to symptomatic recovery. These immunological changes persisted for at least 7 days following full resolution of symptoms, indicating substantial anti-viral immunity in this non-severe COVID-19.
This Twitter thread below is an analysis of the above medical paper:
“THREAD/1: We saw now several reports of reinfection and I wanted to talk a little about that. While immunity induced by SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV and human CoVs is not very long lived, an immune response is typically induced and antibodies persist for 1-3 years.
2) Now, there is evidence that people with COVID19 mount an immune response (e.g. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…). That makes re-infection, especially short-term extremely unlikely. What is more likely is, that the patient is still shedding virus but some of the tests were negative.
3) Follow up tests can turn positive after a few negative tests, e.g. because sampling was better. Also, and this is a very important point, just because somebody still tests positive in a nucleic acid based test, does not mean they are still shedding infectious virus.
4) E.g. Measles RNA can be detected for months in patients, long after infectious virus shedding has stopped. This is also the case for other viruses. And I think this is the most likely scenario here. “
Trent’s comment: I sure hope it’s just isolated incorrect diagnosis as regards someone being over an infection, as opposed to we have no immunity after the infection is defeated. Mark this for your “Watch This Development Closely” files.
And finally for this section, this is a “Medical Information Story” that is noteworthy more for -where- this message is coming from that it’s content —
Preparing for Coronavirus to Strike the U.S.
Getting ready for the possibility of major disruptions is not only smart; it’s also our civic duty
By Zeynep Tufekci on February 27, 2020
Trent Comment: “Preping” for “The End of the World as You Know It” is now “Kool” for the medical establishment media. If you have not bought at a minimum a couple of weeks worth of food, and anti-viral cleaning supplies, yesterday was a good time to do so.
The SARS-CoV2 Virus and it’s COVID-19 infection ARE NOT THE FLU
The following are extracts of information from the report from the WHO visit to China. This was good to know for perspective on what SARS-CoV2 Virus/COVID-19 infection do to large numbers of people.
Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology has found that:
– 80.9% of infections are mild (with flu-like symptoms) and can recover at home.
– 13.8% are severe, developing severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath.
– 4 .7% as critical and can include: respiratory failure, septic shock, and multi-organ failure.
– In about 2% of reported cases the virus is fatal.
Risk of death increases the older you are.
Relatively few cases are seen among children.
Age of Coronavirus Deaths
Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology  has found that the risk of death increases the older you are, as follows:
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.
80+ years old –
70-79 years old
60-69 years old
50-59 years old
40-49 years old
30-39 years old
20-29 years old
10-19 years old
0-9 years old
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).
In general, relatively few cases are seen among children.
Outcome of Pre-existing Medical Conditions (comorbidities)
Patients who reported no pre-existing (”comorbid”) medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%. Pre-existing illnesses that put patients at higher risk of dying from a COVID-19 infection are:
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.
PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE*
Chronic respiratory disease
no pre-existing conditions
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).
The following video addresses the WHO report presenting the data above:
MedCram lecture, Feb 28
Dr. Roger Sehault
Coronavirus Epidemic Update 28: Practical Prevention Strategies, Patient Age vs. Case Fatality Rate
The On-Going Just-in-time, Sole Source in China Supply Chain Crisis
Made-in-China Fertilizer Becomes Scarce for Top Buyer
By Pratik Parija and Debjit Chakraborty
February 24, 2020, 12:11 AM EST
Current, updated daily info on China info about their activity. Traffic, coal consumption, containers, etc.
Very Useful Twitter thread on China’s finances:
Dos Equis Virus Balding 大老板@BaldingsWorld
Real question is how long China can hold out with basically skeleton level activity. We are now at 5 weeks since any real activity and there is no sign of return to normal on the horizon. The question then becomes when will things return to normal and what is the fall out? 1/n
Recommended COVID-19 Daily Search Links
Worldometers’ COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK Page
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Map by Johns Hopkins CSSE
Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline
Nucleus Wealth Corona Virus Update Page
Scott Gottlieb MD
Dr Eric Ding
News Anchor & Founder of @AgendaFreeTV
Specialize in breaking news. Daily COVID-19 live streams
Live updates from the team behind BNO News. Currently covering coronavirus.
You Tube Video channels with COVID-19 Updates
Dr. John Campbell
UK Doctor w/personal connections to Iran
Dr. Chris Martenson COVID-19 updates
[For Peak Prosperity Prepper site]