The October Surprise

So the concept of an “October Surprise” in an election year is so hoary a notion that pundits have evolved that name for it; a planned last-minute revelation before an election (usually of the presidential-variety) of something so scandalous and disreputable that it upends the expected campaign win of the candidate the ‘Surprise” is aimed at. The Rathergate – Texas Air National Guard memo, which Dan Rather and 60 Minutes unleashed on George W. Bush just before the 2004 election is the example which springs first to mind, and never mind that it was launched in September. It was still a desperate partisan attempt to upturn an election.

The Rathergate-TANG faked memo is a molehill in comparison to this year’s mountainous October Surprise. The TANG memo was spurious from the very start, but the Matterhorn of disreputable materiel on Hunter Biden’s laptop doesn’t appear to have been generated by someone faking a document and Xeroxing it over and over again to make it look more convincing. Moreover, most of the people who have generated the emails, the pictures, the recorded texts … they are still alive, at least for now, and the most damaging stuff wasn’t generated decades in the past. It’s all in the here and now, and still relevant, and with even more damning materiel to come – and come it will, especially on the conservative side of the blogosphere, no matter how the National Media Establishment and their allies in Big Tech deny, obscure, and distract … the damaging information to the Biden campaign will get out there.

Is it in time to turn the election into a Trump blow-out? How badly is the Biden brand crippled by sordid business, sexual and drug-abuse revelations revealed on the laptop previously owned by Hunter “Crackhead McStripperBanger” Biden? Discuss as you wish and have insight. The Daughter Unit and I have already voted – and the lines at the early voting location have been the longest that we have ever seen them, every day so far.

29 thoughts on “The October Surprise”

  1. An attempt by Team Trump to be way too cute. The Spygate plotters should have been arrested years ago and Hunter’s corruption should have been laid out long ago, during that farce of an impeachment trial, ideally, since that whole thing was a pitiful attempt to cover up Biden’s corruption and make it look illegitimate to bring it up.

  2. The Biden e-mails may be an unnecessary distraction. There is no dispute that Hunter Biden was paid big bucks to sit on the board of a Ukrainian gas company. There is no dispute that Hunter Biden does not have the skills, experience, track record, or language abilities that would normally be expected for a Board member of a company operating primarily out of the Former Soviet Union. In the most charitable interpretation of the established facts, this is the kind of nepotism which should be unacceptable in a democracy.

    Perhaps in a court of law, more evidence would be needed to secure a conviction for corruption. But there already is enough evidence for the court of public opinion. The problem is that too many members of We The People are falling down on our responsibility to ensure honest government.

  3. I expect Trump to win bigly and the Republicans, but then what do I know? There isn’t a chance for any sort of legal proceeding before the election. The sclerotic FBI might be bringing things to a conclusion in time to affect the ’32 election but I wouldn’t bet on it.

    The real trump card would be evidence of a serious crime in a Republican controlled jurisdiction like Texas. Even if Biden wins, an indictment would be hard to ignore. Of course, the actual hard drive is in the custody of the FBI and we know just how careful they are with such things and how likely they are to cooperate with state law enforcement.

    I doubt that anyone that’s going to vote for Biden will change their vote. With all the practice they’ve had ignoring the bleeding obvious, one more thing shouldn’t be a strain.

  4. An attempt by Team Trump to be way too cute.

    I see no way this can be a credible reaction.

    The story is now pretty open. Hunter Biden dropped off three laptops that were “liquid damaged.” I will not speculate on the liquid but we all suspect something. Hunter signed the contract with a verified signature. That is known. The contract specified 90 days to pick it up or ownership reverted to the repair shop. It wasn’t picked up but a day after the Post story ran, Biden’s lawyer tried to claim it.

    The repair shop owner turned it over to the FBI 10 months ago. Typical of the FBI, they sat on it. This is the same story as Weiner’s laptop that also had National Security info on it. If Trump is re-elected, I expect the FBI to be restructured with a new relationship with the DOJ. I could see the Marshal’s Service taking over much of its role.

  5. Mike: What I mean is I think Trump himself decided years ago to drop as much dirt as possible in October 2020 and I think it’s been a disastrously stupid idea.

  6. Brian I haven’t seen a lot of evidence that the FBI does Trump’s bidding – or anyone else’s. Since it was sitting there for a length of time before the exasperated it guy took it to Republicans, I have my doubts that Trump was planning to cut it this close. If so, of course, he was wrong.

  7. Mike – That whole thing reminds me to contrast Hillary Clinton – she has incriminating emails, thourghly destroys the electronic evidence (although it still resided on other computers/phones).

    Hunter? He takes them in for repair and then forgets about it.

    Wikipedia has been repeatedly asking me for money again this year – and guess what..

  8. I don’t know who is going to win this time. I don’t think Team Trump is trying to convert anyone now. I think they are trying to motivate Trump voters and discourage Biden voters. The tens of millions who have voted aren’t the problem. It is those who haven’t voted who are in play. Do they show up? Don’t they show up?

    Is this late info drop a disaster as someone said above? It is a disaster only if it motivates Biden voters. This has not been over-played by CNN, MSNBC, and the networks and major newspapers. They have tried to keep it quiet and discredit it by saying uniformly that it is “disinformation” from the Boogeyman–sorry, Russia. They have no evidence of that. The Bidens have not denied the emails, although I expect they will some have been salted or altered sometime in the next few days.

    If the press plays up how unfair it is, they really have to get into the allegations–Hunter’s thirty years of addiction, intra-family infidelity, influence-peddling, nest-feathering, and foreign bribe-taking. Plus, he says he had to turn half of the moolah over to “Pop”.

    Anyone can sympathize with a family that has a troubled child–at this point, a troubled 52 year old Yale Law School graduate, but still…
    However, to profit off that kid? Joe Biden doesn’t look that sympathetic here. He looks like a cheap crook.

    On the other side, the press treatment of this, aided by the tech companies, really has given a Trump voter every reason to get there and vote.

    But a joker in the deck is what has yet to come. How depraved is Hunter Biden? How unfair will further revelations be? If the man is struggling, and his private emails reveal that struggle in a human and humane way, this could indeed blow up in Trump’s face.

  9. Giuliani was apparently the only Republican not carried away by the vapors when he saw the disk. Right now, I expect there are U.S. Attorneys trying to figure out how they can round up all the copies and keep any more of the information from being published. It’s to protect the sanctity of the investigation, don’t you know.

    When a time line comes out, we’ll know if the timing was deliberate or not. If it was deliberate, I agree it was too cute by half, but I’ve become enured to that sort of thing from Trump. If I had it, I’d have dropped it the week after the Democratic convention. But then we might be looking at a Warren/Harris ticket.

    Doesn’t anyone want to argue it’s all a plant? Our favorite Canadian must be watching things a little closer to home. Amazing how all these Liberal/Progressive politicians seem to be always on their uppers with their hand out. Know this one secret: If you’re in power and put your hand out, someone, probably many someones, will find a reason and a way to put money into it.

  10. The irony here is that this may be the second presidential election in a row where ham-handed attempts by the FBI to help the Democrat may have instead doomed the Democrat by having something play out at the last minute that, absent FBI partisan meddling, could have played out long ago and been old news today.

  11. It does not appear that this October surprise will have much effect at all outside of the Beltway.
    No one knows about it.
    It would only matter if it was known by a large segment of the voting population, and few have even heard of the topic, much less have had an opportunity to digest it.

  12. If this had come out during the primaries, Biden would have been replaced by a potentially stronger candidate. If it had come out in August or September, it would now be old news. It was well-timed, and has put Joe on the back foot for the remainder of the campaign.

    In a just world, this would be catastrophic, but people do vote their perceived self-interest. In this world, it will still be highly damaging.

    Remember, when Mueller came out with no indictments, Rachel Maddow lost 500,000 viewers practically overnight. There really are people who receive their news from leftist outlets who value the truth and believe that’s what they’re being told. To the extent this information reaches them (and it is, and will more tonight at the debate), their views will be affected.

  13. Mike, Trump was trying to expose Biden’s corruption back in the Summer of 2019. He was impeached for it. Ever since Biden entered the race in April 2019–the same month Hunter dropped the laptops off at the computer shop, BTW—this race was an unspoken duel between Trump and Biden. All the other mediocrities notwithstanding, everybody knew, including Trump, that it would be Biden taking the nomination.

    George Stephanopoulos knew. That’s why he asked Trump in June 2019, a month before the “perfect phone call” , if Trump would accept dirt on a political opponent if it came from foreign sources. The deep state was already setting up impeachment.

    The FBI had what Rudy was looking for late last year, and they knew before then that Rudy was hot on the trail. That’s why Rudy was falsely smeared for his association with Lev Parnas in September 2019 and then was spuriously reported to be under federal investigation for his Ukraine sleuthing while Trump was being impeached,

    Trump has not been smugly sitting on a pile of dirt for a year and a half. Giuliani’s attorney didn’t get the hard drive copies until last month. Just in time, or maybe too late, but Trump did not foolishly sit on this evidence. He’s been fighting for it for a long time.

  14. Everyone already knew the Biden influence peddling story. They impeached Trump for trying to get it investigated for cripes sake. The story now is that the FBI is so corrupt in favor of Democrats that it’s imperative that Trump win this election if only to nuke it from orbit. I know it’s only the latest in a litany of cases but the fact that this was sat on is criminal. We’re learning now that the laptop has illegal images of a minor female on it and that was the basis for the FBI being alerted in the first place. This is common practice for computer technicians who discover this type of material on repair orders. The FBI was given this material by its owner, the repair shop, as is spelled out in the repair contract. The subpoena was signed by the FBIs longtime child sex crime investigating agent. So why did the FBI seek a subpoena for it? Because a grand jury subpoena is SECRET! The plan was to squirrel away this problem acorn in a dead ended grand jury investigation where it would remain hidden forever. That is exactly how the FBI and prosecutors cover up crimes committed by favored parties. And yes, favored parties is a euphemism for Democrats.

  15. “If this had come out during the primaries, Biden would have been replaced by a potentially stronger candidate.”
    There were no potentially stronger Dems. If there were then Joe wouldn’t be the nominee. Their current generation of candidates are lunatics who would lose the upper Midwest, that they need to get back to have any chance of winning, by 10+. Joe was dragged in to try to keep him out of prison and because he was their only chance to put a reasonable veneer on their dumpster fire of a party.
    The case against Slow Joe and his crooked clan is so, so easy, but unfortunately it’s not something Trump is well suited to do. “Your cokehead son is a crook” is not the way to make the pitch.

  16. This laptop story is a real eyeopener. What was the FBI playing at, when they sat on exculpatory impeachment evidence? If they realized the explosiveness of the content, why didn’t they warn the DNC off Biden? Did they think that, if the story dropped, they had complete control of the viable evidence? Did they think they could manage the damage with the ole Liar, Liar, Liar….. Russia, Russia, Russia shtick? Are they all being blackmailed?

  17. “What was the FBI playing at”
    Lol, where have you been the last few years? The FBI is fundamentally corrupt and is completely unsalvageable, as should come as surprise since their headquarters is named after J Edgar Hoover.

  18. Continuation of my 8:49 comment: Was the deep state going to use the laptop evidence as leverage over Biden?

  19. You don’t have to blackmail folks who are willingly part of the scam. Joe’s been a grifter his whole life. China and Eastern Europe just provided an opportunity to crank things up to 11.

    The biggest mystery of our time to me still is Epstein. It’s not like he was blackmailing Bill Clinton, for goodness sakes. What the heck was happening there? The only answer I can come is with is a la Marc Dutroux, there is some seriously evil stuff going on at top levels of international government, but that just seems crazy. Don’t see a better explanation though.

  20. Although looking at what’s being dropped today, it is pretty amusing to think about how the Biden campaign and the media (but I repeat myself) are going to try to ignore everything that’s going to come out…

  21. I don’t think these revelations are that useful now, or at any time. Joe Biden has been given a pass for decades by the press for lots of bad behavior. They chuckle, oh, that’s just ol’ Joe, ain’t he a character? Just like they wink at ballot stuffing, walking around money, Philadelphia and St Louis style voter fraud. Gee, those old time machine politicians had some quaint habits, didn’t they?

    The story in the press, if there is a story at all, is how vicious and unprincipled the Republicans are for unfairly hyping this old news, and picking on Joe’s well meaning but troubled son. Hasn’t Joe suffered enough, being widowed at an early age and then losing the sainted Beau so recently? C’mon man, lay off him! The real issue is how horrible and unacceptable Donald Trump is.

    Trying to be objective and non-partisan, my beef with Joe Biden has always been that he is the most typical career politician. Can’t trust any word coming out of his mouth today, he will change positions without qualm if it helps him get ahead. Never accomplished anything for the country, but sure did have a cushy career and lots of face time on television to keep his, um, market value up. He’s just the cynic’s Example A of what is wrong with our political class and useless media, that they would consider him a prominent player instead of the sleazy, self-interested hack that he is.

    Because of the early voting, the expected voter fraud, and the media coverup, I expect the Hunter related corruption news will have little or no effect upon the outcome.

    I would be most pleased to be proven wrong in this prediction.

  22. Because of the early voting, the expected voter fraud, and the media coverup, I expect the Hunter related corruption news will have little or no effect upon the outcome.

    I dunno. The early voters know who they want and are unlikely to be influenced by this. Democrats, in particular, don’t care about corruption. Lots of them still believe the Russia hoax. The late voters tend, I think, to be more likely undecided and those who are less partisan.

    Vote fraud is the great unknown, of course.

  23. The only answer I can come is with is a la Marc Dutroux, there is some seriously evil stuff going on at top levels of international government, but that just seems crazy.

    I don’t see a better explanation either, and it sure seems the crazy evil explanation fits events very well.

    The democrats and the media- but I repeat myself- always seemed amazingly interested in shutting down any discussion of “pizzagate,” Qanon, and Epstein.

    What do they know about these stories that most people don’t? What would actual investigations reveal?

    I suspect a whole lot of ugly stuff that would get the perpetrators sent to jail for a very long time, fear of which motivated them strongly enough to attempt to overthrow the elected President of the United States to stop said investigations.

    They’ve been trying the same thing to stop news of the Biden laptop from spreading, with less success.

  24. There is … something seriously creepy going on in the upper levels of our ruling elite. Deeply sexual corruption in addition to the monetary, it’s hard to say. But the whiffs of something deeply putrid are there…in re Epstein.
    If anything, the establishment media stonewall on the Hunter Biden laptop contents might yet sink a large portion of partisan media credibility. It’s all over the Daily Mail, for ex. Reminds me of how the John Edwards baby-daddy story broke out in the tabloids first, and then the so-called “respectable” national media were forced to take notice.

  25. If anything, the establishment media stonewall on the Hunter Biden laptop contents might yet sink a large portion of partisan media credibility.

    My first thought, what media credibility?

    Then, d’oh! Democrats.

    I’ve come to suspect that the real divide in American politics isn’t left/right, or even globalist/nationalist- it’s between trusting the mainstream media and not trusting it.

    Reality has famously been described as that which doesn’t go away when you stop believing in it. I suggest it also doesn’t go away when you stop covering it, if you are a news organization.

    What does go away is any trust your audience had in you, because our lying eyes still manage to notice reality.

    Even if you cannot, you lying leftist media liars.

  26. Loose ends all over the place. The repair shop guy can’t find anyone interested in the contents of the disk, but the FBI comes back witha subpoena. There is no court order of silence even after Hunter’s lawyer finds out that the FBI has the computer. Nothing happens for the better part of a year suggesting that the FBI is either going to bury the evidence or that they are planning to use it against Perv-Daddy Biden, if he gets moved to the White House basement. I am amazed that coke and booze demented Hunter is still playing point man for some of the Biden Familia scams. I guess that a 14 year old niece is worth the grift. Then the repair shop guy got his goodies to Giuliani, who blows the whistle weeks before the election. With such a cute smile!

    There has got to be a back story. Did a FBI player remember his/her oath and drop a dime to, maybe, the White House on this data? Was it just the “Luck of the Scottish”? Did “someone” invite the repair shop guy to lunch? At least after Hunter’s lawyer found out that the FBI was involved, did no one think to put the Grand Jury “cone of silence” over the repair shop guy? And the smiling face belonged to Giuliani, an experienced Prosecutor.

    I have no idea what the law is about digital copies of digital evidence. Or even if the copies are “evidence” outside of a political campaign, although Giuliani supposedly sent a copy to the Delaware PoPo. The Democrats immediately fired up, “Russians! Russians! Russians!”, but that was quickly slapped down by someone who had a detailed knowledge of the players. One of those players was moved from his prison cell, lest he end up like Whitey Bulger.

    There are lots of teams on the field and no rule book or script. I can’t tell you where my itch is, other than to say I wouldn’t scratch it during a video conference.

    I am disturbed by the time lapses, the lack of common expected Grand Jury actions, and the coincidences. I don’t like “coincidences”. Something is going on in the background.

    Oh, and since the Democratic Media has been ignoring this story, I have forwarded relevant links to friends and family. I am sure that they will be overjoyed.

  27. Mike-SMO,
    I’m not a lawyer but I’m pretty sure that grand juries don’t work quite the way you think. The “cone of silence” only applies to the prosecutors and jurors, the witnesses are almost always free to talk to outsiders and almost always decline. The witnesses aren’t allowed to have their own counsel present when they testify. There are probably exceptions and I’ll be happy to be corrected by someone that actually knows.

    The reason that grand juries are usually opaque beyond the closed doors is that generally only two types of witnesses are called. The first are law enforcement with evidence which are understandably tight lipped. Most of the rest are material witnesses that are at some jeopardy themselves, so are also not anxious to talk to the press. Prosecutors generally restrict both the number of witnesses and their testimony to only the bare minimum needed to gain an indictment. Grand jurors can also request witnesses and ask their own questions, there is such a thing as a runaway grand jury but they are very rare.

    In this case, the agent that sized the hard drive might be called but not the repair man. He would almost certainly be called at trial unless the defense stipulated to the authenticity and provenance of the drive. The grand jury is usually perfectly happy to accept the word of the agent, just his supervisor or his written submission.

    I also don’t think that a gag order can be issued unless there’s an actual case at issue, certainly not before an indictment was issued. It is considerably different in the U.K.

  28. Sgt Mom – When I watched Brit procedurals like the one with Helen Mirren I thought how ridiculous: the blackmail of top government officials for pedophilia, etc. The last couple of years have made me wonder how close to reality are they? Of course, Hillary and Obama did seem anti-American to the point of facilitating Iran and Russia’s armaments seemed melodramatic, too. Now it is just seeming to be the way of business of one major American party. And now they have a larger and more prosperous country handing out the graft. If we can’t count on our leaders feeling minimal loyalty – to spouse, to constituents, to the historical and great nation they represent – the floor is really giving way. But then what kind of a presidential candidate, faced with a challenging foe like coronavirus, tells us that what we must be most aware is that we are dying from it? We were dying from polio, too – I’m old enough to remember the two kids we played with down the street dying within 48 hours of each other and their mother’s white hair. We lived with it and we – well a lot of good scientists when science wasn’t considered democratic or republican – conquered it.

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