So, how do I regard Election Day, looming up in two weeks? With dread and foreboding, to be absolutely frank – no matter who is declared victorious. It’s absolutely guaranteed that all flaming hell will break out in either case; either within hours/minutes, or in days/weeks.
If the Trump/Vance ticket sweeps to an unmistakable, unarguable landslide well beyond any means of the Democrat Party to fraud – the anti-Trumpists will be insane with baffled fury. The national media establishment will look like Wily Coyote after one of his Acme gadgets explodes – and the entrenched bureaucracy crusted like layers and barnacles all over the various federal government departments … they will see the end of their comfortable gravy train. Ruin, disgrace, impoverishment, possibly criminal charges. The Deity knoweth and the various conservative-sympathetic bloggers and commenters, to include many fellow Chicagoboyz essayists and frequent commenters, remember very well how blatantly they played dirty pool the last time around. What would they venture this time against the Great Orange One, the avatar of their doom … Political assassination? Of him, or any of his allies? At the height of what some commenters have termed a second civil war? Like Lincoln, at the hands of an angry partisan of the losing side? Sadly. I wouldn’t put it beyond the realm of possibility. This will be bad. Very bad.
That’s uncharted waters, in modern American politics – although not unknown in South America, or Europe of the early 20th Century. Americans did not routinely do things that way, and since 1865, we had rather prided ourselves on that record of relatively peaceful turnover between parties. Not that assassination of various notable American politicians hasn’t happened – but most usually at the hands of the freelance nutters. In this present overheated political atmosphere, we can be assured that an assassin would be made a hero/heroine (overtly or covertly) by the media, academic and intellectual elite. Anyone with eyes to see must know this and also acknowledge that Trump fans and voters generally would be made … very unhappy by such a turn of events. How unhappy? That’s one of those things that I dread finding out. Even if a political assassination is not in the cards – the Harris/Walz partisans and the party supporting them will take every opportunity to be obstructive, and even more vicious and nasty than ever before. Witness the current slime vented by the Atlantic Magazine, which used to be a respected publication.
The Harris/Walz combo achieving a win on November 4th, possibly through an overwhelming flood of ballot farming and fakery in various districts particularly vulnerable to such … bald, undisguised fraud, giving the win to Kamala and Elmer Fudd; this will absolutely inflame Trump voters, for all that we can do about it in the immediate aftermath. We learned a hard lesson of January 6th; likely those of a mind to criticize the outcome won’t be so eager to go to Washington to protest openly and run the chance of experiencing debilitating lawfare and interminable imprisonment in a Washington DC gulag, pending trail by a biased jury and a corrupted justice system. But Trump voters will be infuriated. Deeply angry – and the cohort which engineered a victory for Kamala-walla-bang-bang and Tim the Tampon Man will not rest easy in that victory. They will be insecure, suspicious and ready to lash out at any perceived threat or defiance of federal government authority, likely with disproportionate violence. Those states which succeeded in maintaining a sane and competent governance in accordance with the votes and desires of the majority of their residents may manage to stand against rounds of fed-gov madness.
It will all be very interesting reading in history books, assuming that any detached and relatively non-partisan accounts will be written in future.
Two more weeks. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst, I guess. Comment as you wish – how does it all look from where you are standing?
Here in Colorado we get mailed ballots and can either mail them back or take them by hand to a ballot box. Mine is done, and when my wife and daughter finish theirs I [and maybe “we”] will take them to the County Clerk’s office to drop them off in the ballot box. After I drop them off, I intend to salute the ballot box, because I rather suspect that it will be my last chance to vote in a supposedly legitimate election.
For an election to be functionally legitimate and to give consent of the governed and a mandate for those in the seats of power to govern; a large majority of the population [voting or otherwise] have to believe in the legitimacy and integrity of the election process itself. As a lifelong amateur historian and political scientist, I would guess that you probably need 90%+ of the population to believe in the honesty of the process to hold the Social Contract together. The collapse of a Social Contract is almost always a kinetic and untidy process.
Looking at our poor country, with its situational concept of the rule of law, I would figure at best that 25-33% do not believe in the integrity of the political process and more likely over 50%.
My father came to this country alone from China, 12 years old, not speaking English, just before the Depression started; at a time when under American law Chinese were specifically not protected by the law or the Constitution. In 1943 the exigencies of war forced the US government to make Chinese here legally people. By that time my dad spoke English, was just shy of 30 years old, working in a good defense job for the Army Air Corps, and totally exempt from the draft. He so believed enough in this country and what it stood for that he gave all that up and immediately enlisted in the Army to defend it. He earned his US citizenship in Patton’s 3rd Army as a SGT leading a squad of infantry. He believed in the actuality and potential of America enough to do that.
Today, only 80 years later, possibly a majority of Americans born here cannot believe that.
Subotai Bahadur
I am pretty certain that in my part of Texas, the polls are pretty strict with requirements, and that in Texas we can mostly count on the integrity of the election process… but for those vulnerable polling places … cannot hold out much hope, really.
I so hope that I am not living in the last shadows of a fading age, before it all goes down into darkness again.
Not only am I too old to put up with this sh*t, I have Wee Jamie the Wonder Grandson to consider.
I can’t predict the future and when I ponder it, I can’t foresee any clear path. But my gut tells me that our present failing regime will push people into open defiance.
In a certain sense that has already happened, as the regime has been making it abundantly clear that Donald Trump is not acceptable as president, to no avail.
The more… interesting defiance will be if the regime attempts an obvious steal of the election and the public refuses to believe. I recall the leaders of the 1991 coup in the former USSR gave a press conference. When they told the reporters that certain post-Soviet officials had been committed to insane asylums the reporters laughed at them. That was a tell that the post-Soviet public had ceased believing the Soviet-era lies. This included the members of the military, who refused to follow orders from the old regime, causing the coup to quickly collapse.
On X today I’ve seen it claimed that early GOP vote totals indicate that Trump and the GOP are doing exceedingly well. Nice. The obvious question is what happens if Trump and the GOP are still doing exceedingly well on election night and functioning states like Florida announce results the way they were announced most of my life- shortly after the polls close- but certain other states have no idea what the vote totals are and need weeks to puzzle out what the solution to that hypercomplex mathematical equation could possibly be- but whatever, it sure looks good for Kamala!
So what breaks? I’ve got a book about the Civil War- the first one, that is- about the time between the election of Abraham Lincoln and the Confederate shelling of Fort Sumter. In most of the Civil War history books I read that was glossed over in a paragraph or two, because books about the Civil War were- you know- about the War.
A lot more happened before the killing began. Lots of politics, lots of attempts to find a political solution to something that turned out to be not amenable to a political solution. But today it’s worse, because at least Abraham Lincoln had a US government that he could generally trust to follow orders once he was inaugurated. Trump rather famously lacked such a thing.
Enough rambling, so my best guess is this: Trump does very well with states that report on election night, and with states that don’t. But the states that don’t report keep finding moar ballots, and the regime keeps telling everyone that the election isn’t over until they’ve printed up enough ballots to win- I mean, counted every ballot.
Unlike 2020, X exists, and reports of fraud are relentless. No one cares what the Soviet media, I mean the mainstream media reports, and everyone ignores what they say. At some point the regime simply decrees Kamala the victor and demands that X censor anyone who disagrees. The various GOP governors have to make an important decision…
I don’t know what happens then either. But I have an ugly suspicion that someday someone will write a book about that, which will have been a topic usually glossed over in a paragraph or two.
In my area, the fall weather has been very pleasant. Perhaps the calm before the storm?
One of my leading theories for post-election?
Two words.
Color revolution
I think you’re entirely too optimistic about the results of a Trump victory.
I see an alarming parallel to 1860: there is a large bloc of opinion who have persuaded themselves that the opposing candidate is an “existential” threat.
In 1860, that was the slave-holding Deep South (and parts of the Upper South). They called Lincoln an abolitionist who would incite slave insurrections to destroy the white South. To escape this perceived threat, they issued declarations of secession in the seven states they controlled. It should be noted that many secessionist Southerners had no objection to a Republican as President of the rest of the US.
When Lincoln rejected secession, the Civil War resulted. Four additional states joined the rebellion, while nearly all non-Southerners (and also many Southerners) supported the war to suppress the rebellion. A large bloc of non-Southern opinion had already come to view “the slave power” as an aggressive, sometimes criminal force (Bleeding Kansas, Brooks-Sumner, Dred Scott). This included (IMO) a plurality of “public intellectuals” (scholars, clergy, editors).
At that time, there was a fairly clear geographical division between rebellious pro-slavery areas and loyal areas. Thus the struggle was fought as a conventional war.
Today, the Left has persuaded itself that Trump is a fascist would-be dictator, whose disastrous rule must be stopped “by any means necessary”. Unlike 1860, no separation from the Trump US is is possible. Also the anti-Trump element includes many entrenched in the Federal bureaucracy. In 1860, secessionist officials and military officers resigned. That won’t happen now. And the “public intellectual” class is almost entirely anti-Trump.
The anti-Trumpers can try to swamp the election with manufactured votes. If they succeed – they will bury Trump. Probably they will will also take the House and Senate, and then move to pack the Supreme Court. Even if the fraud is blatantly obvious, they can stonewall, like Maduro in Venezuela. The question is whether the Republicans in the current Congress stop them by refusing to certify the fraudulent results.
If Trump wins anyway, then they have to go extralegal, as in 1860, with some kind of coup d’état. They would have the backing of most of the “public intellectuals”. But I’m not sure enough key personnel in government would go along. The 1860 secessionists had a plausible legal theory, and didn’t think they were imposing on the non-South. An anti-Trump coup must impose on all Americans.
If there is an anti-Trump coup, then the stuff hits the fan. But what form of coup?
Xenaddy
I am reminded of the Spanish Civil War. Most of the books about it emphasize the War.. As Stanley Payne, among others, point out, there are three phases that need to be considered.
1)The leadup to the War. Causes, after all, count for something. Leftist narratives either minimize or ignore government police kidnapping and killing José Calvo Sotelo, perhaps the leading Rightist in Parliament. His killing, to me and others, was sufficient reason for the uprising. Not coup: uprising.
2) The War. Leftist narratives frame it as the People vs. the Army, when in fact both Army and People were initially rather divided.
3) The aftermath. Was Franco the postwar butcher that the lefties claim?
Back to the USA. Many, if not all, Democrats are convinced that Trump is the Devil incarnate. Or Hitler. You know, the Hitler that moved the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. The Hitler who helped broker the Abraham Accords between Israel and some Arab states.
I am not optimistic. Perhaps a 55% Trump victory might convince them, though that may instead prompt them to print more votes.
I recently had a conference call among cousins. My sister gave instructions, at my request, to stay away from politics. One yellow dog Democrat cousin responded to this request: “if we don’t discuss politics, we shouldn’t discuss religion, economy, weather, science, facts, etc.” The irony here being that when he was once confronted with a fact–a number from a primary source federal government database–he called the fact a lie, and when requested to produce a number to support his point, he did not do so. For my cousin, facts are facts only when they support the Democrat narrative. That doesn’t make me optimistic. My cousin did refrain from politics during today’s discussion, though.
The Hitler who helped broker the Abraham Accords between Israel and some Arab states.
In other words, the worst Hitler ever in the long line of Republican Hitlers.
I’m a fan of the Hugh Thomas book on the Spanish civil war, and I note he did write about what led up to the uprising and war which made Franco the leader of Spain. As to post war butchery I further note the left always projects and always lies. Plus, when Franco died his dictatorship died with him. Compare and contrast with Venezuela after Chavez descended into Hades.
For my cousin, facts are facts only when they support the Democrat narrative.
Typical leftist. Anyway, I’ve expected another American civil war of some sort because I used to argue with leftists online for fun. Their hysterical raving and inability to be rational along with their obvious desire for violence against those they disagreed with reminded me of the behavior of the Antebellum South prior to that war. I’ve also noted that people on the left who didn’t behave that way often ended up departing the hive mind and some have now endorsed Donald Trump. Most notably Tulsi Gabbard, former deputy DNC chair and now a Republican.
Eric S. Raymond had a post a long time ago- I couldn’t find it but it was titled something like evaporative cooling and cults- about what happens to cults when their visions don’t come true. If your religion tells you the world will end on (say) October 22nd 1844 and it doesn’t- well, you’ve got some pondering to do. The less committed depart, leaving the true fanatics to get even more fanatical.
That’s the modern left. Myriads of saner people have departed, leaving a horde of deranged fanatics. I’m sure a country ruled by there people will do well, right?
Color revolution
No wall of text this time.
2020 was the color revolution.
2024 will be uglier, as I expect they won’t be able to reasonably pretend that they actually won.
Prepare.
Gringo
Donald Trump may indeed be our Jose Calvo Sotelo analog. I note that the hit team who kidnapped Jose Calvo Sotelo from in front of his family and executed him was made up of Leftist operatives plus actual agents of Spanish state security. Something to keep in mind when considering the failures of the Secret Service in the previous two assassination attempts against President Trump.
As far as your conference call with family, it merely illustrates that we are no longer really one country. We are divided by religious faith. Your cousin believes in the Sanctity of whatever the Left says [and the innate sinfulness of those not on the Left spouting the Party Line of the moment]. Those of us here believe in the Social Contract, the Declaration of Independence, and the Constitution.
I suspect that the gulf cannot be bridged.
Subotai Bahadur
The Left will not go away quietly. They’ve raised several generations of True Believers, largely via an education system that does not impart the knowledge and mental skills to see through the Marxist bullhockey.
Changing their minds will require a large, culture-wide epiphany. Losing an election won’t do that; they will retain their view (reinforced by the Kneepads Media and an intractable Demmunist Party) and simply try again next time. And eventually, they WILL regain power. These things go in cycles.
In short, “process” is not the solution. We will go kinetic at some point, and/or go the Balkan route.
I hold out some slim hope that a Trump/Musk partnership radically reshapes the government, removing the central tool the Demmunists need to achieve their goals. But that’s an investment toward the future, liberating future generations from indoctrination; it doesn’t defuse the existing cohort of True Believers. And that is a cancer that needs chemo.
If Trump loses, the future is dark. If he wins, there will be violent rioting in the cities but not out here in America and eventually the Left will tire or there won’t be anything left to burn.
Trump is both term-limited and mortal so it is important to think about the future of MAGA. The GOPe still lurks and will try to retake the party in 2028. They have some big names like Haley and DeSantis to rally around. We have Vance and Hawley.