We may be less than a week into the second Trump administration, but there are already folks out there testing the water for a presidential run in 2028. Over the next two years, they will be packaging a track record that can be sold to donors and supporters and testing whether they have a viable lane to run in.
The problem is that nobody has a clue what the political landscape is going to look like in 2027-28. We might only be a week in, but Genghis Trump and the Orange MAGA Horde are already running rampant through the Democratic heartland. They have put DEI to the sack, are in the process of doing the same to illegal immigration, and are laying siege to the Deep State.
So what is an aspiring Democrat to do? How do you position yourself? Do you back off and let the political landscape mature a bit to find your lane or do you come out aggressively and stake your place?
Gavin Newsom has already put his markers down. He will fight Trump on all fronts, from DEI to immigration. Of course his presidential aspirations have already gone up in smoke. Other possible candidates like Fetterman are going to pick and choose.
Another name being floated for a presidential bid is Democratic Governor Wes Moore of Maryland. Haven’t heard of him? That’s okay, not too many people have. He has only been in office for two years, has the public charisma of a damp sponge, and already has the state in a fiscal hole. Hold that thought about fiscal holes.
However, Moore does have three things in his favor when it comes to insider chatter about a run: he’s a governor, he’s young, and he’s black.
It looks like he’s already putting his markers down. He’s going to fight Trump, appeal to the Left in the party by fighting Trump. I saw this press release he other day:
“Governor Wes Moore today announced the appointment of Kamal Essaheb as senior advisor and director of immigrant affairs. The new role will lead strategic planning and policy development, in addition to overseeing community and stakeholder engagement and services management. The position will reside within the Governor’s Office of Community Initiatives and will dually report to the Executive Office of the Governor.”
Any time I see press releases, especially on a volatile issue, riddled with vacuous statements and awash in Buzzword Bingo I become curious. Who is this man, Essaheb, so wise in the ways of strategic planning and stakeholder engagement within our community regarding immigration?
Let’s see.
“Essaheb most recently served at USAID, where he spearheaded the agency’s efforts to address the challenges and harness the opportunities that migration offers our country. He also served in the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, leading visa initiatives that advance the economy’s needs, while making workplaces safer for American and immigrant workers alike.”
USAID? Samantha Bee’s outfit. Oh, my. DHS? What immigration issues do you think he was working on at DHS? Deportations?
The good stuff is left for last.
“Prior to working in government, Essaheb was deputy director at the National Immigration Law Center, where he oversaw the organization’s policy, communications and litigation strategies and was instrumental to the launch of the Winning in the States initiative.”
There’s your tell right there. NILC is part of the NGO-government network that has helped fuel our current immigration crisis.
A senior advisor to the Maryland governor, the deepest of blue states, on immigration, with this type of background, isn’t there to help H-1B people with their paperwork. So, Moore is going to fight Trump on immigration and try to position himself in the far-Left, progressive lane for a possible presidential run. Got it.
So, remember that Maryland fiscal crisis I alluded to earlier? From Moore’s own office:
“It’s no secret that our State is facing a deep budget deficit, totaling nearly $3 billion this year alone. In a fiscal crisis like this one, we cannot simply tax or cut our way to prosperity — we must drive continued economic growth and prosperity for our state.”
So, remember that $3 billion number? FAIR estimates that illegal immigration costs Maryland $2.9 billion, and prorating state and local taxes nation-wide collects only about $370 million or so in taxes.
So, Moore is going to go with the game plan of trying to eliminate budget deficits by spending cuts and tax hikes, while protecting illegal immigrants who cost his state billions. That will play in Maryland and other deep-blue states but not in the rest of the country.
Ask other blue state governors how much their advocacy of illegal immigration is costing their citizens.
I was just reading that Shapiro/Whitmer were going to be the Dem dream team for ’28. A lot of time for all sorts of things to happen before ’28.
The one thing Prohibition established was, for better or worse, that the Feds will go where they will to enforce Federal laws over around or through local authorities as the case may be. As has happened with Columbia, Trump won’t be bashful about exerting leverage against anyone standing in his way. I would suggest that anyone contemplating getting in the way seek competent legal advice about the several obstruction statutes in the U.S. Code. This could shape the ’28 field as well.
Case in point:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/01/26/colombias-petro-backs-down-sending-personal-plane-to-pick-up-migrants-after-trump-announced-sanctions/
I think Shapiro/Whitmer would be a good ticket on paper for 2028, but then again I’m not a Democrat. The first Democratic “primary” is next year, early 2027 as people form exploratory committees and try to figure out if their enough startup money to start running. What they are doing now is figuring out what “lane” they will market themselves.
If you want to read something really funny there is this https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/elections/the-12-democrats-who-make-the-most-sense-for-2028/ar-AA1xRVEi
I guess these compose the “possible universe” but some are laughable and experience would predict that one of the key 2-3 candidates isn’t on the national radar yet.
Shapiro could have been Democratic VP nominee in 2024, if he wasn’t Jewish, or maybe he just wanted to stay clear of that trainwreck; VP nominees of losing tickets pretty much end their careers. Perhaps being Jewish gives Shaprio that ability to stay to the middle because he knows he’s not going to win the Left anyway. Also look at Fetterman who may run and is clearly staked a more moderate position; “Pennsylvania Democrat” might a key term, for 2028
Ideally from a game theory perspective you would put off defining yourself as long as possible, say for another 5 to 12 months until you see how the whole Trump. Admin/post-2024 Democratic loss thing plays out. Was 2024 truly a realigning election? How strong a role will the far Left continue to play in Democratic politics? Where’s the country going to be? What’s going to be the sweet spot for a prospective candidate?
There are prospective candidates out there who will run from the radical side trying to get a national profile, pick up the Bernie vote. Ideally you will see toward the end of the next year, the various lanes, representing possible approaches for the Democrats in 2028 fill-out. An unknown like Moore who is basically going to run, if he does, on being a black technocrat will want to put that definition as long as possible.
The best place for a Democrat to be on immigration, given how popular a crackdown is in the country and how aggressive Trump is in his first week, is the let the issue come to them. Support getting rid of gang members but when that first story comes out of the “dreamer” who has a Harvard acceptance letter, uncle is a decorated Marine, and is kind to small animals can step in and say this is wasn’t we are about. Admit it, that’s the story waiting to be written
What you want to avoid is what Moore doing now, placing an immigration radical in a key position.. Could this just be an appeasement for the Maryland Left to shore up Moore’s flank, with the intention of just burying the guy? Possible. However this is an issue that’s going to take up a lot of public oxygen in the next 6 months and that’s the last guy, if I’m Moore, I want in front of a camera. Moore is running on who you want him to be.
If I’m a Republican looking to run in a statewide election in 2026/28 either in open election or against a Democrat, I’m looking at the state fiscal picture, figuring out how much my state is spending on illegal immigrants and asking why are they taking state services away from citizens. Yes illegals pay taxes, and maybe more than that FAIR report, but not enough for the services they consume. Moore, Newsom, and Democratic governors are going to be asked directly on a national stage – especially with their state in deficit – why are they raising taxes/taxing services away from citizens and paying billions on illegals.
I know California says they are “only” $2 billion in deficit, but they have used up their last budgetary tricks if their revenue doesn’t bounce back in a serious way they are out of luck. Maryland is in the process of doing the same and given how tied they are to the federal workforce does anyone want to put money that they are going to close their structural fiscal hole?
Two obvious scenarios four years down the road:
1- President Trump’s attempt to cut government waste and bring back industry & jobs has begun slowly to pay off. JD Vance has become the face of the Trump Administration, and no Demonrat has any chance in the Presidential election.
2- Our worthless CongressScum have torpedoed President Trump’s efforts. The bill for the unsustainable Budget & Trade Deficits is coming due. Foreign manufacturers are declining to trade their real goods for US dollars. The US is declining into an unsavable mess. Yes, a Demonrat, any Demonrat, might win the Presidency — but would it matter any more?
So here’s an idea for Trump, using ability to communicate/outrage and thereby move the Overton window.
Let’s pick on California because 1) it’s a mess 2) it’s a huge mess 3) everyone knows Newsom wants to run in 2028 4) but he’s in trouble over the fires. California also hits an important trifecta because it is not only a sanctuary state, but it has been expanding Medicaid access over the years to illegal immigrants and the California budget is in chronic deficit. Medicaid costs to the California general fund will rise an estimated 39% ($13.8 billion) over the next four years. Not all due to that expanded access, but when the next fiscal crisis hits it will be in part due to runaway Medicaid costs The estimate I have seen regarding the cost of that Medicaid expansion is $6.9 billion but I don’t have the original report.
The two other things about California that makes it a big fat juicy info-war target? It’s a sanctuary state and the feds pay about ½ the bill for Medicaid (about $80 billion) I see leverage and I smell opportunity.
Trump should, in only the way he can, state that he will be deducting the cost of providing Medicare for illegal immigrants in sanctuary cities from the overall cost-match provided by the federal government. That’s not only for the expanded care in California but also emergency care in the other
locations as well (which serves as the provider for first resort for the uninsured)
When the Left and those governments start yapping he should use the spotlight to ask why federal taxpayers should be helping those jurisdictions assist lawbreaker. Then he can turn the spotlight and quote how much, in specific dollar terms, illegals are costing those state/counties/cities. Then he can start naming states (especially those whose governors may run in 2028) with dollar figures. Who cares if they are exactly accurate, the point is Trump knows that once they start haggling over the cost (price), he’s already made the sale.
Even if he’s blocked from doing this with Medicaid payments, it would be a huge disaster for the Democrats because just like people contrast dollars given to Ukraine vs needs in hurricane-stricken North Carolina, he will show the specific dollars given to illegals vs. American citizens
After two decades of losses behind McGovern, Carter, Mondale, and Dukakis, I think the Democrat Party has a deep cultural aversion to anybody with a whiff of ‘policy wonk’, deepened by the successes of Billy Jeff “feeling your pain” Clinton and the implosion of Al Gore. They turned as fast as they could away from Mrs. Billy Jeff to a complete unknown who hadn’t even finished one term in the Senate, and were rewarded. Their support for Hillary’s second run was tepid enough to let Trump draw to an inside straight. The aged cipher they ran as ‘kindly uncle Joe’ was nobody’s idea of a senior pol with policy acumen (Warren and Buttigieg among others who actually are a bit wonkish went nowhere). Harris’s ‘brat and joy’ campaign also went nowhere because she had too much policy baggage. The whole force behind Gov HairGel is the idea that he looks, and maybe sounds, Presidental. If I had to bet on anybody I’d say Beshear from here in Kentucky is probably the most likely. He’s term-limited in 2026, telegenic, and given the GOP dominance in the state legislature he can steal credit for a lot of good outcomes while also pushing the idea he’s been ‘resisting’ Trump from back in the COVID days.
Going forward, another big crisis facing the Demonrats is — Just what do they stand for anymore?
There was a time when there was a Democrat Party that was for the working man, especially the unionized working man, and was anti-Communist and Pro-America. Meanwhile, the Republicans were the party of the rich. But that was then, and this is now.
Now the Demonrat Party is the party of the hyper-rich, with total disdain for working people, dedicated to bringing in illegals whom they can more readily abuse, focused on abortion! abortion! abortion!, the sexually confused, and environmental extremists. It is globalist and anti-American. That is not an obvious platform for attracting new voters as the old people who still think it is FDR’s (or even Carter’s) Democrat Party die off.
The only thing today’s Demonrat Party has going for it is their opposition — the feckless self-serving DC Swamp Republicrat Party. Will President Trump be able to replace those Swamp Creatures (looking at you, McConnell) and build a new Republican Party?
My thought about Wes Moore is that I have no reason to think of him.
Only a true man of genius who would hire someone named Kamal Essehab and task him with helping foreigners continue to extract wealth from Americans right after an election where the winner openly promised to deport millions of “migrants,” even if they cried on CNN.
Where was Kamal born, btw? Am I not supposed to ask that? Am I supposed to assume that because he is living in the US right now he is loyal to America and not whatever country he came from? And if he was born in the US I’d say it doesn’t even matter because his career has plainly been devoted to importing foreigners into the country and keeping them here, legal or not.
I’ve had quite enough of this, thank you. And the evidence suggests that the American people have had enough of it too, as the right track/wrong track number has swung quite a bit towards the right track since Trump returned and began evicting foreigners.
Hence my guess is that Moore deciding to take the side of foreigners against Americans won’t get him far outside Maryland.
We’ll see.
Will President Trump be able to replace those Swamp Creatures (looking at you, McConnell) and build a new Republican Party?
He already has.
I can’t imagine the old GOP going to the mat for someone like Pete Hesgeth and pushing through to win with a tie-breaking vote in the Senate. The old party would have folded like the proverbial lawn chair when the Deep State objected. Note also swamp thing Jodi Ernst was apparently attempting to block Hesgeth so she could become SecDef and cash out later, which resulted in enough threats to her that she backed away and resumed her prior irrelevance.
Plus, odious figures such as Liz Cheney and her dad have departed the party to be replaced by popular figures such as Tulsi Gabbard and RFK jr.
The old GOP is already dead, even if Mitch McConnell is not.
Soon…
There are a lot of similarities between political media and sports media, they just chew over content in that there is not much quality supply to meet demand. After the NFL draft, sports media starts pumping out mock NFL drafts for next year within a week.
Journalists, who are worthless anyway, do the same with presidential candidates within a motnhs of the last election. It’s as crap as the NFL mock drafts. Nobody knows what the political landscape is going to look like next year just as no one knows for the next year who the NFL draft order or college prospects are in May. Why do it in politics? It’s a social dynamic Part of it is is like cheap content in sports media, they are lazy and junkies will consume it. Part of it is also a gamble, everyone knew in 2013 Hillary was the prohibitive favorite for 2016, no career advancement for predicting her, but if you predicted a long shot – say Bernie Sanders – that’s worth something and your reputation rises.
We are at this stage the top of the funnel for 2028, the next stage is going to come over the next 1.5 to 2 years as people get weeded out because after putting out feelers for support and money they realize they have no chance – there is no lane or no room in an existing lane to run in. That’s why Wes Moore is (or at least his people or journalists looking to get on the bandwagon) floating his name, there aren’t any other black governors out there for the Democrats. That’s why even a nobody like Cory Booker tried a while back or even Raphael Warnock senator from Georgia, that’s the lane
Bernie Sanders looms large over possible Democrats not just for endorsement power but because he showed how a long shot with a committed base can rise. That;s where Moore and all the rest are, they are going to make it into 2027 because they have buzz, they are going to get that buzz because they are manufacturing it right now; selling yourself to backers is no different than trying to brand yourself as the hot new gadget. Even Kamala Harris was hot in 2018 to mid-2019 because she sold herself to backer, once she got out onto the fields she was exposed.
It used to be the governor of California was considered an automatic talked-about candidate for president. It’s why Pete Wilson left the Senate to run for governor in 1990, it’s why Nixon ran in 1962, it’s why Kamala may try in 2026 (in her case to build executive credibility, she’s already won some statewide races) The problem is that California is so out of step for the rest of the country, that to win you have to be the type of politician who doesn’t sell well nationally. That’s why a Newsom is a joke.
Moore is going to run, I don’t know if he makes it to 2027, he might just based on his appearance and the job he holds. However every presidential cycle, Republican and Democrat, has the hot candidate at the start who gets exposed once out there in the field.
Maryland is as blue as California, though not (yet) as crazy. Anyone who wins that state doesn’t have the political Fingerspitzengefühl to win nationally. However all candidates now have to start thinking about how to position themselves in regard to Trump, do you resist on all fronts or do you look to accommodate him in some way, work with Orange Devil where it makes sense and resist on others. The possible Pennsylvania candidates, Shapiro and especially Fetterman, believe in some accommodation. Moore is showing with this appointment that he will fight.
Who has the better political instincts? It’s not Moore who is a DEI candidate. Anybody in the media, Democratic party, or backers who want to stake an internal reputation on this guy is just broadcasting that they have no political IQ but he is going to be a barometer – just as Shapiro and Fetterman are -of how crazy the Democrats are going to be for the next 3 years
Xennady
Where was Kamal born, btw? Am I not supposed to ask that? Am I supposed to assume that because he is living in the US right now he is loyal to America and not whatever country he came from?
Kamal Essehab is from Morocco.
I don’t exactly where Kamal Essaheb was on the org. chart at USAID, where he last worked, but it looks like he got out just in the nick of time.
<a href="link text“>”Top USAID career staff placed on immediate leave”
“This is like taking out all the generals,” said a former Trump administration official informed of the decision.”
“ The Trump administration has ordered dozens of top career employees of the U.S. Agency for International Development to go on administrative leave, according to six people told of the decision.
The order — sent via email to members of the senior executive and senior Foreign Service — was issued close to the end of the business day Monday and was effective immediately, according to two current USAID officials and three former USAID officials told of the communication. It comes as USAID and the State Department have been ordered to impose halts on a vast number of humanitarian and related programs around the world.
The decision appears to affect nearly every career staffer who holds a top leadership role at the agency, at least in Washington — around 60 officials, the current and former officials said.
The cuts have left many offices within the agency entirely devoid of senior non-political leadership. The entire cadre of leaders who run USAID’s bureau for global health, for example, was put on leave, according to two of the officials.
“This is a huge morale hit,” said a former senior Trump administration official who was also told of the move. “This is the leadership of the agency. This is like taking out all the generals. I don’t know what they hope to accomplish by it.”
A spokesperson for USAID did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The administrative leave means the people affected will continue to get paid. It was not immediately clear how long it would last. But it comes as Trump officials seek to stamp out any internal dissent from within federal agencies.”
From Fox
“According to the Associated Press, an internal USAID notice sent late Monday said new acting administrator Jason Gray had identified “several actions within USAID that appear to be designed to circumvent the President’s Executive Orders and the mandate from the American people.”
FAFO indeed.
When people call to reach that deputy USAID director Trump bounced, they just get that automated response in Clemenza’s voice “Oh, ? You Won’t See Him No More”
“This is the leadership of the agency. This is like taking out all the generals. I don’t know what they hope to accomplish by it.”
Don’t know about you, but most of the many places I have worked — if the “leadership” had been taken out, us worker bees would have been divided between those who laughed and those who cheered. We can expect productivity of the workers to be substantially improved.
“We can expect productivity of the workers to be substantially improved.”
I’m not sure that increasing the productivity of USAID is a good thing. I’m no sure how any person could even tell. We are talking about the State Department, after all.