We may be less than a week into the second Trump administration, but there are already folks out there testing the water for a presidential run in 2028. Over the next two years, they will be packaging a track record that can be sold to donors and supporters and testing whether they have a viable lane to run in.
The problem is that nobody has a clue what the political landscape is going to look like in 2027-28. We might only be a week in, but Genghis Trump and the Orange MAGA Horde are already running rampant through the Democratic heartland. They have put DEI to the sack, are in the process pf doing the same to illegal immigration, and are laying siege to the Deep State.
So what is an aspiring Democrat to do? How do you position yourself? Do you back off and let the political landscape mature a bit to find your lane or do you come out aggressively and stake your place?
Gavin Newsom has already put his markers down. He will fight Trump on all fronts, from DEI to immigration. Of course his presidential aspirations have already gone up in smoke. Other possible candidates like Fetterman are going to pick and choose.
Another name being floated for a presidential bid is Democratic Governor Wes Moore of Maryland. Haven’t heard of him? That’s okay, not too many people have. He has only been in office for two years, has the public charisma of a damp sponge, and already has the state in a fiscal hole. Hold that thought about fiscal holes.
However, Moore does have three things in his favor when it comes to insider chatter about a run: he’s a governor, he’s young, and he’s black.
It looks like he’s already putting his markers down. He’s going to fight Trump, appeal to the Left in the party by fighting Trump. I saw this press release he other day:
“Governor Wes Moore today announced the appointment of Kamal Essaheb as senior advisor and director of immigrant affairs. The new role will lead strategic planning and policy development, in addition to overseeing community and stakeholder engagement and services management. The position will reside within the Governor’s Office of Community Initiatives and will dually report to the Executive Office of the Governor.”
Any time I see press releases, especially on a volatile issue, riddled with vacuous statements and awash in Buzzword Bingo I become curious. Who is this man, Essaheb, so wise in the ways of strategic planning and stakeholder engagement within our community regarding immigration?
Let’s see.
“Essaheb most recently served at USAID, where he spearheaded the agency’s efforts to address the challenges and harness the opportunities that migration offers our country. He also served in the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, leading visa initiatives that advance the economy’s needs, while making workplaces safer for American and immigrant workers alike.”
USAID? Samantha Bee’s outfit. Oh, my. DHS? What immigration issues do you think he was working on at DHS? Deportations?
The good stuff is left for last.
“Prior to working in government, Essaheb was deputy director at the National Immigration Law Center, where he oversaw the organization’s policy, communications and litigation strategies and was instrumental to the launch of the Winning in the States initiative.”
There’s your tell right there. NILC is part of the NGO-government network that has helped fuel our current immigration crisis.
A senior advisor to the Maryland governor, the deepest of blue states, on immigration, with this type of background, isn’t there to help H-1B people with their paperwork. So, Moore is going to fight Trump on immigration and try to position himself in the far-Left, progressive lane for a possible presidential run. Got it.
So, remember that Maryland fiscal crisis I alluded to earlier? From Moore’s own office:
“It’s no secret that our State is facing a deep budget deficit, totaling nearly $3 billion this year alone. In a fiscal crisis like this one, we cannot simply tax or cut our way to prosperity — we must drive continued economic growth and prosperity for our state.”
So, remember that $3 billion number? FAIR estimates that illegal immigration costs Maryland $2.9 billion, and prorating state and local taxes nation-wide collects only about $370 million or so in taxes.
So, Moore is going to go with the game plan of trying to eliminate budget deficits by spending cuts and tax hikes, while protecting illegal immigrants who cost his state billions. That will play in Maryland and other deep-blue states but not in the rest of the country.
Ask other blue state governors how much their advocacy of illegal immigration is costing their citizens.
I was just reading that Shapiro/Whitmer were going to be the Dem dream team for ’28. A lot of time for all sorts of things to happen before ’28.
The one thing Prohibition established was, for better or worse, that the Feds will go where they will to enforce Federal laws over around or through local authorities as the case may be. As has happened with Columbia, Trump won’t be bashful about exerting leverage against anyone standing in his way. I would suggest that anyone contemplating getting in the way seek competent legal advice about the several obstruction statutes in the U.S. Code. This could shape the ’28 field as well.
Case in point:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/01/26/colombias-petro-backs-down-sending-personal-plane-to-pick-up-migrants-after-trump-announced-sanctions/
I think Shapiro/Whitmer would be a good ticket on paper for 2028, but then again I’m not a Democrat. The first Democratic “primary” is next year, early 2027 as people form exploratory committees and try to figure out if their enough startup money to start running. What they are doing now is figuring out what “lane” they will market themselves.
If you want to read something really funny there is this https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/elections/the-12-democrats-who-make-the-most-sense-for-2028/ar-AA1xRVEi
I guess these compose the “possible universe” but some are laughable and experience would predict that one of the key 2-3 candidates isn’t on the national radar yet.
Shapiro could have been Democratic VP nominee in 2024, if he wasn’t Jewish, or maybe he just wanted to stay clear of that trainwreck; VP nominees of losing tickets pretty much end their careers. Perhaps being Jewish gives Shaprio that ability to stay to the middle because he knows he’s not going to win the Left anyway. Also look at Fetterman who may run and is clearly staked a more moderate position; “Pennsylvania Democrat” might a key term, for 2028
Ideally from a game theory perspective you would put off defining yourself as long as possible, say for another 5 to 12 months until you see how the whole Trump. Admin/post-2024 Democratic loss thing plays out. Was 2024 truly a realigning election? How strong a role will the far Left continue to play in Democratic politics? Where’s the country going to be? What’s going to be the sweet spot for a prospective candidate?
There are prospective candidates out there who will run from the radical side trying to get a national profile, pick up the Bernie vote. Ideally you will see toward the end of the next year, the various lanes, representing possible approaches for the Democrats in 2028 fill-out. An unknown like Moore who is basically going to run, if he does, on being a black technocrat will want to put that definition as long as possible.
The best place for a Democrat to be on immigration, given how popular a crackdown is in the country and how aggressive Trump is in his first week, is the let the issue come to them. Support getting rid of gang members but when that first story comes out of the “dreamer” who has a Harvard acceptance letter, uncle is a decorated Marine, and is kind to small animals can step in and say this is wasn’t we are about. Admit it, that’s the story waiting to be written
What you want to avoid is what Moore doing now, placing an immigration radical in a key position.. Could this just be an appeasement for the Maryland Left to shore up Moore’s flank, with the intention of just burying the guy? Possible. However this is an issue that’s going to take up a lot of public oxygen in the next 6 months and that’s the last guy, if I’m Moore, I want in front of a camera. Moore is running on who you want him to be.
If I’m a Republican looking to run in a statewide election in 2026/28 either in open election or against a Democrat, I’m looking at the state fiscal picture, figuring out how much my state is spending on illegal immigrants and asking why are they taking state services away from citizens. Yes illegals pay taxes, and maybe more than that FAIR report, but not enough for the services they consume. Moore, Newsom, and Democratic governors are going to be asked directly on a national stage – especially with their state in deficit – why are they raising taxes/taxing services away from citizens and paying billions on illegals.
I know California says they are “only” $2 billion in deficit, but they have used up their last budgetary tricks if their revenue doesn’t bounce back in a serious way they are out of luck. Maryland is in the process of doing the same and given how tied they are to the federal workforce does anyone want to put money that they are going to close their structural fiscal hole?