We’re Barely Capitalists

It is not remarked generally in the popular press but, in many instances, the West is barely capitalist. Let’s just look at the simplest definition of capitalism, per Wikipedia:

Capitalism is an economic system that is based on private ownership of the means of production and the creation of goods or services for profit.

How many of the businesses and services that you encounter on a daily basis meet that test? Very few, I’d bet.

Here’s some hardworking guys that load beer out of a truck. Oh wait – that’s Wirtz, and they are part of what is basically a beer cartel, an Illinois Liquor Distributor. This Chicago Reader article (while a few years old, still basically relevant) calls it out:

Many say the three-tier system has made distributors a protected class, but distributors maintain that liquor requires special rules to this day… California State University economics professor Glen Whitman, who has conducted a study on the economic logic of the system, pooh-poohs this rationale. “The arguments are in no way specific to alcohol,” he says. “Why aren’t we concerned about people producing counterfeit Coca-Cola? We have sales taxes on all kinds of goods, but we don’t feel the need to create a third party for them.”

If you are in the media business, your license or spectrum is effectively negotiated with the government. If you are in the health care business, you are tied to a byzantine public / private system deeply enmeshed with the use of government dollars. Energy / electricity / gas is tied to various monopoly service laws, and permitting pushes out many of the smaller entities (“fracking” is one of the rare efforts to escape their grasp, mainly because it came up spontaneously and off the radar). Agriculture is tied to price supports, and many service industries (such as law) use “guild” power to limit new members and entrants, regardless of quality of work claims. Of course schools, universities, police and fire departments, etc… are completely government controlled entities.

So what’s left? Well you have small scale retail, and restaurants. While they have a bit of government oversight, the government probably plays a smaller role than in most industries.

I read a recent article about Greece where a visitor actually had hope for the country because, for the first time, people no longer queue for government jobs since the government is no longer hiring, and they need to go to work for themselves. Not only do they need to work for themselves, they need to have a product that they can sell outside Greece because their fellow countrymen have few Euros left to buy anything.

A recent article I wrote about the power situation in the UK was distressing because the government was effectively moving to virtually a “central planning” model for energy, and this is a Tory (right wing) government. Without a second thought they disregarded the fact that the private sector generally does better than a government imposed model, whether it is done by command or by fiat by limiting permitting and creating bogus incentives on items such as wind power which collapse as soon as the gravy train expires.

It is definitely a scary thought experiment to think about the “free market” as you walk around a city such as Chicago, and how little of it exists, and how what’s left is dominated by crony capitalism, cartels, and political favoritism.

Cross posted at LITGM

Mis-Pricing Risk

Mis-pricing Risk in the US Real Estate and Lending Markets

Back before the housing bust in the early 2000’s we were in the process of purchasing a new condo and wanted to put down a substantial amount of money, over 50% of the purchase price. The response from lenders at the time was a full cavity search of all assets we had across all dimensions, and we never could seem to satisfy them (i.e. after we had given them everything, there were even more questions).

Meanwhile, people were getting “liar loans” with virtually nothing down or “balloon loans” with floating interest rates that were extremely risky, and they were paying roughly the same interest rate that we were receiving, even though the bank stood almost no risk of default with us since we were willing to put down 50% as equity. In order to lose money, the price of our real estate would have to lose 50% before the bank was at risk at all.

How this SHOULD have been accomplished is that someone borrowing money and putting down very little equity would have to pay a substantially higher interest rate than someone putting down substantial amounts of equity, since the real risk to the bank was far lower. Instead, the lender went through a spurious cavity search of me and then let the other guy do a liar-loan at virtually the same rates. This seemed ridiculous to me at the time and you can see how that all turned out for everyone.

Today, this problem has been “fixed” in a different way – instead of varying the interest rate based upon the inherent risk of the project, people with good credit receive loans at very low interest rates and people with poor credit are effectively frozen out of the market entirely. They have no access to credit at all, in the first place. We have de-facto rebuilt redlining, albeit based on creditworthiness, with no “slope” for those with poorer credit. This same process works with businesses – banks are willing to lend to those types of businesses that essentially don’t need the money (strong cash flows, limited debt) and won’t even consider riskier companies and start ups, at any price.

Mis-Pricing Emerging Country Debt Risk:

Today the world is hungry for “yield” or interest / dividend income, a consequence of the “zero rate interest policy” or ZIRP that is effectively employed in most of the developed economies today.

Mexico is currently able to issue debt at a rate of 5.43%. The Mexican finance officials see that there is a hunger for their debt and are moving to respond to it by issuing 10 and 20 year debt.

Several analysts saw the increase in long-term bond issuance as a response to the recent strong demand for the paper, which has pushed secondary-market yields down sharply in the past month.

While Mexico has financially been running a sound ship, with a reasonable deficit, there are profound risks in buying ten and twenty year debt at under 6%. The first major risk is the Mexican currency, which has depreciated many times in the past. The second major risk is crime.

A recent (highly recommended, albeit terrifying) article called “The Kingpins” in the New Yorker describes the intense drug wars currently engulfing Mexico, which lays out the following facts:

1) over 50,000 soldiers have deserted the army while fighting the drug war
2) it only costs 1000 pesos ($80 USD) to have someone assassinated in Mexico
3) over 98% of violent crime goes unpunished
4) drug lords are now tapping right into the pipelines of PEMEX, the oil monopoly and cash cow for the government, in order to steal fuel

The article follows the drug gang battles between various factions, the powerlessness and corrupt nature of the governmental bodies, and the civilians caught in the cross fire. These drug battles are so epic that they would better be described as military campaigns, and the entire situation is close to that of a civil war. Other than the use of massive heavy weapons (tanks, artillery) and targeting by ethic group (rather than gang alliances), the situation is likely not far from the Syria civil war in terms of total casualties and deaths.

HOW does it make sense to buy 20 year Mexican debt at a rate near 6%? To the extent that you believe the Mexican currency will do better than your currency and want to earn 6% during the interim, I guess that makes sense. But in general I cannot see that 6% interest rates in a country engulfed in a virtual civil war with widespread lawlessness and epic corruption making sense as fairly pricing that risk.

Likely the outcome of lending money in local currency to countries with severe domestic problems and a history of devaluations will turn out as well as our policy of granting loans to home buyers with virtually no equity and without verifying their earnings in the first place.

Cross posted at LITGM

Shut Up and Play the Hits – One Day Only (July 18)

The band LCD Soundsystem, led by James Murphy, recently broke up. They are releasing a DVD of their final live shows along with a release in theaters FOR ONE DAY ONLY ON Wednesday, July 18. Look for “Shut Up and Play the Hits” near you and I recommend going. Here is a web site with the trailer and a list of theaters.

I saw LCD Soundsystem three times – they are (were?) one of my favorite bands. The first time was at Lollapalooza in 2007 – they played right before the headliner, who was Daft Punk (in their amazing triangle light show) and after LCD’s set was done James Murphy just pointed over to the Daft Punk stage and said go. “Daft Punk Is Playing At My House” (celebrating the release of their album with a big party) was one of LCD Soundsystem’s big hits off their first record, so it was a great coincidence that they were playing back to back on nearby stages. I remember how hard their drummer worked the entire show and that he was up front (often drummers are in the back) – I thought he might pass out in the heat.

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Urban Garden

Below is a cool view of an urban garden in the new east side. The Aon building (formerly Standard Oil) is on the left and the Aqua on the right.

The clouds look interesting.

Cross posted at LITGM

Dogs Around Town

Around River North I frequently see this rather petite woman walking these two giant dogs. A female relative of mine hurt her arm when a big dog pulled on the leash while she was walking it; these dogs could obviously take her for quite a ride if they were ill trained. They appear to be well trained – she must know what she is doing at least according to the “Dog Whisperer” she is walking in front of her dogs (everyone else I see in the city walks behind their dog).

While shooting at Gerry’s farm this dog apparently had some sort of death wish… he continually walked in front of the firing line, no matter what we were firing (even Gerry’s powder gun which packed a big wallop). We had to shout “dog” while people were shooting so they could wait for the dog to lope right past the targets before restarting, kind of like how you shouted “car” when you were younger while playing ball in the street. This went on for over a half hour.

Cross posted at LITGM