Dying Monopolies – The Post Office

In the River North neighborhood of Chicago there are many affluent customers packed into a small physical area. The vast majority of these individuals shop online and receive physical packages as a result.

And yet the post office building that sits right smack dab in the midst of all these package-receiving citizens is not a hub of activity; many times it seems empty and forlorn.  Why is that?  It is due to the fact that the US mail system, which provides service across the United States, is not viewed as either a reliable or competitive delivery mechanism for e-commerce goods delivery, and the flood of packages that arrives is generally delivered by either UPS or Fed Ex.

The post office dutifully delivers all the stuff I don’t want – junk mail, catalogs, bill reminders, an occasional holiday card for those that are sent via snail mail, and notices from governmental entities that haven’t joined the internet era (to their credit some of them have moved much of their operations to the internet).

While the post office is crippled by liabilities, benefits, civil service protections for workers, and a mandate to serve every US address for first class mail, they would be in a much better situation if somehow they had been able to capture a significant share of the package delivery market that flourished right beneath their noses.  This article from Slate describes the situation as it exists today.

The loss of the package delivery opportunity is only the most obvious squandered one; think of what the post office COULD have done tied vai the internet (guaranteed, reliable domain names linked to addresses for bill paying or as a pre-cursor to social media) or with sales of goods since they have access throughout the entire USA.  However, given that they were set up as a monopoly to do one thing well (deliver first class mail), they didn’t have much pressure to innovate.

In the end the post office is mostly a machine to employ government workers, spread throughout the US and in every congressional district.  Per wikipedia (which has a solid write-up here) the US post office employs 574,000 workers, with government perks, pensions and benefits that most of you will never receive, in order to deliver that first class mail that you mostly throw into the recycling bin.  The proposals that they are floating show how tied their hands are; they want to cut Saturday mail delivery which will make them even less competitive vs. UPS and Fed Ex – they aren’t really talking about ways of outsourcing services and cutting expensive staff en mass which would be needed to move even close to breaking even.

The post office is probably just betting that their employees (through lobbying) and government protectors (the politicians) will be enough to stop significant cuts while their service (first class mail deliveries) becomes ever less essential.  Since we bailed out the banks and print enormous amounts of money to fund the US deficits, who will ever even notice tens of billions of dollars in losses on first class mail service to boot.

The sad part is, they are probably right.

Cross posted at LITGM.

Trying To Sweep Up After the Last Boom…

Recently I saw this sign in River North, indicating the start of another large high rise project, with an optimistic start date of 2016. Apparently there is plenty of money sloshing around to fund the construction of large buildings, because cranes are up in the sky all over the downtown area. I don’t know if lessons have been learned from the last and most recent bust in 2008, where developers who put in only a bit of equity defaulted and handed the projects back to the creditors, who also took big losses. The most obvious lessons would be 1) require developers to put significant equity into the project 2) don’t fund too many projects competing for the same tenants. These projects don’t seem to be condominiums for the most part; I am only speculating but perhaps the failure of so many condominium projects rattled the banks (those that are still standing, at least).

I would consider it a victory if they finished a few of the half-built structures that have stood idle for five or more years without any progress. This hotel in River North is now restarting; I have been looking at this ugly mess for years so it is great to see some sort of actual effort to complete the hotel.

The real issue is whether or not the structures being built right now, at what is likely the apex of the boom, will be seen through to completion. I certainly hope so, because it is depressing to see half-built structures marring the skyline for years. The famous “Chicago Spire” didn’t get far (only a hole in the ground) which is a good thing because it would have been sad to see the “Stub” along the lake shore for years to come.

Cross posted at LITGM

Illinois Leads The Way – “Factoring” our State’s Receivables

While many states in the midwest are tackling their structural problems head on, Illinois is contentedly doing things the old-school Dem way. Michigan (of ALL states!) recently enacted a right to work law and is taking over Detroit, in an attempt to finally deal with their unending fiscal decline. Wisconsin is famously taking on their state unions (with the usual assortment of hacks picketing the state capitol to boot) as well as implementing a right-to-carry law. Indiana has made fiscal prudence, right-to-carry, and right to work laws a centerpiece for many years, with commensurate success. Yet while these midwestern states attempt to reform, Illinois (mostly) stands pat.

Illinois’ litany of woe is so long that I won’t bother summarizing problems that you can find for yourselves on the internet. We recently bucked trends in the region with a giant tax increase, designed to fix our immediate fiscal hole. The immediate problem is that we are not even paying vendors in a reasonable time frame, much less fixing our structural debt issues.

However, even with this giant tax increase, the state is far behind in paying vendors for services. A WSJ article titled “Startup See Profit in State’s Financial Woes” summarizes the situation:

A Chicago startup is aiming to mine a silver lining in the fiscal misery hanging over Illinois.

The nation’s fifth-largest state is running an estimated $7 billion behind on bills for everything from Medicaid reimbursements to doctors to plates purchased for prison mess halls, forcing some vendors to wait six months or more to get paid.

That is where Vendor Assistance Program LLC is stepping in. The closely held company says it can profit by advancing the money to pay the vendors, then keeping late fees the state owes them. Vendors forego the penalty payments but get their money faster than they would otherwise.

Thus the state of Illinois, which is paying 1% / month on balances over 90 days, is essentially funding this start up. In an era of record low interest rates, our fiscal ineptitude has us paying out these high penalty fees because we cannot get our act together and fund and pay bills on a 90 day cycle.

Given that the state of Illinois funds these programs and creates a budget and just raised taxes enormously, WHY can’t they figure out a plan that pays vendors in 90 days? This should be a scandal, but like everything else in Illinois, you just get inured to ineptitude, and this is just another story among a sea of stories of criminal behavior enmeshed with old-school Dem political hacks.

To be fair, one guy that deserves some credit in Illinois is Rahm Emanuel, who is attempting to close 61 schools in the City of Chicago, and is supporting the growth of charter schools which chip away at the education monopoly and cause competition so that some neighborhood schools and selected high schools are actually up to the type of standards that would cause parents’ to consider sending their kids locally.

Cross posted at LITGM

Happy St. Patrick’s Day From Chicago

It’s that time of year again. There are hordes of people just like this guy who were out at 6am here at River North in Chicago and the bars are packed to the gills. Last year at this time it was 80 degrees and beautiful (that will never happen again in my lifetime) but this year it is a more typical 32 degrees with a bruising wind. That won’t stop the fun though and everyone I run into is buying booze or taking cash from the ATM or trotting from bar to bar or waiting in line somewhere.

St. Patrick’s Day in Chicago has to be seen to be believed and I am not talking about dying the river green.

Cross posted at LITGM

Play ball as in the olden times…

Chicago 16 inch softball