War and Peace

Strategic Forecasting, Inc. has published a report on Iran by George Friedman that is well worth reading. I am posting the entire content of the report below. (Stratfor permits republishing with attribution.)

UPDATE: In posting the Stratfor piece I did not make my own position clear and some readers may have misinterpreted it. I think that Iran is a serious threat and that we should treat Iran’s apparent impending acquisition of nuclear weapons very seriously. Indeed I have argued on this blog in favor, essentially, of preventive war.

I posted the Stratfor report not because I agree with all of its premises and conclusions (in particular, I think Friedman is unwise to assume that Iran cannot soon acquire nuclear weapons), and not because I do not take Ahmadinejad’s threats at face value (I do), but because the report seems to explain well the geopolitical dynamics underlying Iran’s recent foreign policy. While the situation looks bad and I share the concerns expressed by many bloggers about apocalyptic scenarios, I also suspect that like most frightening situations the Iran problem will become more tractable as it becomes better understood. The Stratfor analysis seems like a step in the right direction.

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Aaron raises an interesting question. Personally, I’m skeptical that this or any other administration could be that clever, or that the NYT, which sat on the story for a long time before publishing it, would have cooperated, or that such an ornate plan would make sense. I also think there’s plenty of evidence that the NSA has been doing this kind of mass-monitoring of communications for decades, which makes me think that they are still doing it. But who knows.

TM Lutas’s thoughtful post is worth reading, as is this post by Thomas Barnett, to which Lutas links. I don’t agree with Barnett’s conclusion but he makes his version of the “soft kill” case well.

UPDATE: Barnett comments on Lutas’s post.

I’ve got a midterm in three hours, but the Iraqi elections is something that can’t be missed. Besides, I hadn’t really covered the October constitutional referendum, so this is my way of making up for it.

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