They Just Can’t Stop Themselves

Joe Biden:

The Republican party and some of the blogs and others on the far right, are trying very hard to paint a picture of this man, they’re trying the best as they can to mischaracterize who he is and what he stands for.

All this stuff about how different Barack Obama is, they’re not just used to somebody really smart. They’re just not used to somebody who’s really well educated. They just don’t know quite how to handle it. Cause if he’s as smart as Barack is he must not be from my neighborhood.

(via Rachel Lucas, whose post on this is worth reading)

They just can’t stop themselves. The Democratic leadership, together with its core of “progressive” supporters, is so convinced of their own superior brilliance that they can’t stop talking about it, even though it should be obvious that the arrogance is turning people off.

What is the evidence for the claimed superintelligence of Senator Obama? Where are the great scientific discoveries or the patents for vital new technology? Where are the deep analyses of the history of political thought? Where is the carefully-crafted legislation? Where is the brilliant reorganization of a government agency or a business that dramatically improved its effectiveness? Where are Obama’s books and articles dealing with any subject other than himself?

Obama seems to be a pretty smart guy who can give a very nice talk, as long as he doesn’t have to do it impromptu and you don’t listen too carefully or too often, and who gives the impression, correctly or not, of being likeable. Biden himself can’t even offer those distinctions.

I’d also note that when Biden spoke at a Democratic rally where he made the above comments, he was introduced by a woman who referred to Governor Pailin as “a bucket of fluff.” It’s part of the same pattern of arrogance. (And, anyhow, isn’t the phrase usually “a ball of fluff?”)

We Don’t Know What’s Going On

Last November (2007) conventional wisdom held that the Democrats held a lock on the next presidential election and that Hillary Clinton held a lock on the Democratic nomination. However, by February (2008), a mere three months later, Obama came from out of nowhere and seized the lead. By July (2008) Obama had won the Democratic convention and most people seemed assured that he would easily win the general election. Then McCain picked Palin a month later and suddenly McCain stands either tied with Obama or slightly ahead. 

Why didn’t all the thousands of professional political analysts in the media, think tanks, political groups and academia predict the impact someone like Palin would have on the election? Why do we keep paying these people or even listening to them?

Face it, for all that we all, amateurs and professionals alike, pontificate on politics, none of us really understand what drives elections or can predict how they will turn out. We don’t know what’s going on. 

[Thoughts inspired by this post via Instapundit]

“The Palin Effect in the Intrade Presidential Election Futures Market”

Arthur De Vany:

At the Tools Page on Mathestate.com, Dr. Bob Rimmer analyzes the price data in the elections futures market. It is very sophisticated modeling, using stable distributions to forecast the probability of winning for McCain and for Obama.
 
The raw data show the Palin Effect in the dramatic turn around in the futures prices with McCain trailing for many months and Obama leading. In early September there is a sudden reversal. Politics, like life, is dominated by extreme events which only a heavy tailed distribution can capture. None of the other election models are capable of capturing these extreme events. They are far too static and tame. The polls only partly capture the Palin Effect. It is real and dramatic.

(Via John Lott.)

UPDATE:

black swan