Chicago Boyz

Economists in action! (Requires flash.)

(Via Chicago Boy AB)

Many people have predicted that the German and, especially, French governments will be greatly discredited after we depose Saddam Hussein — and learn how deeply involved with his regime the Germans and, especially, French were. I agree. I also predict that the war will be, if not a walkover, at least much easier than critics anticipate (Perry DeHavilland predicts the mother of all surrenders); that the scope and horrific nature of Hussein’s atrocities will be revealed to exceed even our worst estimates; and, if I am right on my first two predictions, that George W. Bush’s father, and some of his father’s key advisors, will come out of this looking worse for not having finished the job the first time around.

Salam reports that life for ordinary Iraqis has been worse during the past ten years of anti-regime sanctions than it was prior to the Gulf War. He may be right. You can interpret what he says in a couple of ways:

1) America’s use of force against Iraq in 1991, followed by sanctions, was a bad idea. We harmed innocent Iraqis and made Saddam Hussein into more of a monster than he already was.

2) America used inadequate force against Saddam Hussein in 1991. Our subsequent imposition of sanctions was a cop-out, a cheap substitute for additional force that showed Hussein we weren’t serious about stopping him and that he could do whatever he wanted without serious consequence.

Leftist elites in Europe and the U.S. tend to believe the first explanation. I believe the second one. I suspect that if the coming war is relatively easy, Bush Sr.’s decision to withdraw prematurely from Iraq in 1991, and our subsequent betrayal of Iraqi Shiites in their post-war uprising (not to mention the 1995 northern rebellion from which Clinton precipitously withdrew support, and perhaps even our double-cross of the Kurds in the 1970s), will come under renewed scrutiny. They should. Policies under which we sometimes allowed allies to twist in the wind may have made some sense under old-style “stability” politics, but they taught opponents of tyrannical regimes that the U.S. can’t be counted on. I think that’s been one of the main reasons for Arab opposition to our imminent attack on Hussein: they haven’t believed that we would go through with it, and consequently they didn’t want to risk Hussein’s revenge if they cooperated with us. If we want these people’s trust (e.g., to facilitate “regime change”), we should follow through on our talk and actions. People who get shafted have long memories. Our elected officials and foreign-policy appointees sometimes act as though they’re off the hook for previous administrations’ actions. They are not.

The easier the coming war is, the more it will appear that the first President Bush was excessively cautious and lacking in vision. I hope that afterwards we will reevaluate the cynical assumptions by which we overvalued the short-term stability of despotic regimes and discounted the noble dreams of pro-U.S. freedom fighters.

I heard it on the radio.

My sister is my bellwether on most political things. She has a really good gut. As Bush finished his speech the phone rang. “Home run,” she said.

It was certainly unambiguous. 48 hours, then a time of our choosing.

All the chit-chat is now moot. The French, and who knows who else, will continue to talk for a while. My peacenik acquaintances are literally crying. They’ll have more candle-lit songfests. But it doesn’t matter. We’re done talkin’.

It’s too bad it came to this. But it is what it is and wishing it was something else won’t make it something else. Thank God Bush knows that.

May God bless our soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines, and our allies who will fight beside them. May God have mercy on the Iraqis who are going to be under the bombs. My He grant them and us a safer and more just and more peaceful future.

Update: Here is the transcript via Instapundit.

Update 2: Dixie Flatline brings down the hammer.

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Brian Micklethwait thinks so. I agree. His points about England are difficult to dispute. I think the same argument also applies to Israel, where the pattern since the early 1990s has been one of tacit alliance between Labor and U.S. Democrats, and between Likud and the Republicans. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.