It appears that the downing of Malaysia Air flight MH17 is Russian Federation President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin’s version of Iran Air 655. The accidental downing of a civilian airliner blundering into a combat situation and got knocked down by a surface to air missile. However, instead of the Aegis Cruiser USS Vincennes (CG-49), in a Persian Gulf firefight with Iranian Revolutionary Guards small boats, we have “Russian Seperatists” equipped with Russian Federation supplied NATO Reporting name SA-11 “Gadfly” medium range surface to air missiles in the Ukraine.
See this CBS Report:
Malaysian Boeing 777 passenger airliner carrying 295
See also this AP report that placed an SA-11 launcher, the likely murder instrument and know locally as “Buk,” in the area of the shoot down —
A launcher similar to the Buk missile system was seen by Associated Press journalists near the eastern Ukrainian town of Snizhne earlier Thursday.
.
On Wednesday evening, a Ukrainian fighter jet was shot down by an air-to-air missile from a Russian plane, Ukrainian authorities said Thursday, adding to what Kiev says is mounting evidence that Moscow is directly supporting the separatist insurgents in eastern Ukraine. Security Council spokesman Andrei Lysenko said the pilot of the Sukhoi-25 jet hit by the air-to-air missile was forced to bail after his jet was shot down.
.
Pro-Russia rebels, meanwhile, claimed responsibility for strikes Wednesday on two Ukrainian Sukhoi-25 jets. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said the second jet was hit by a portable surface-to-air missile, but added the pilot was unscathed and managed to land his plane safely
.
Moscow denies Western charges that it is supporting the separatists or sowing unrest in its neighbor. The Russian Defense Ministry couldn’t be reached for comment Thursday about the Ukrainian jet and Russia’s foreign ministry didn’t respond to multiple requests for comment.
The Debris field is seven miles (11.2 KM) long, consistant with a airliner at 33,000 feet being destroyed by a medium range radar guided surface to air missile (SAM).
The West dropped a new round of sanctions on “Czar Putin De Santa Anna” (in honor of Putin’s continuing destruction of the Russian economy through foreign agression a’la General Lopez Santa Anna of Mexico) yesterday.
Russian leaders acting agressive after a new round of Western economic sanctions are an old Cold War theme that Putin loves to indulges in. That is what makes a “USS Vincennes scenario” type shoot down the most likely cause of this disaster…and it also helps that CNN’s Barbara Starr is reporting that the Pentagon believes Russian side also fired a Buk type missile that took out separate Ukrainian cargo plane on Monday.
It appears things are going to be getting much worse in the Ukraine.
This may prove worse than Korean flight 007, which If I recall was in and out of Soviet airspace.
Korean flight 007 was paced by a pair of Soviet fighters for an hour before it was shot down. Fighters that were not equipped with international radios.
MH17 seems to have just been following its normal course and was blown out of the sky by a SAM.
1. U.S. Intelligence confirm a surface to air missile was used to shoot down MH-17 Passenger Plane.
2. There is audio of the Cossak mercenary yo-yos who did the shoot down.
See:
Rebel Leader in Leaked Audio: ‘Cossacks’ Shot Down the Plane
http://mashable.com/2014/07/17/malaysia-airlines-ukraine-russia-cossacks-leaked-audio/
Here’s the full translation of the video, provided by Kyiv Post:
Igor Bezler: We have just shot down a plane. Group Minera. It fell down beyond Yenakievo.
Vasili Geranin: Pilots. Where are the pilots?
IB: Gone to search for and photograph the plane. It’s smoking.
VG: How many minutes ago?
IB: About 30 minutes ago.
After examining the site of the plane the terrorists come to the conclusion that they have shot down a civilian plane. The next part of the conversation took place about 40 minutes later.
“Major”: These are Chernukhin folks shot down the plane. From the Chernukhin check point. Those cossacks who are based in Chernukhino.
“Greek”: Yes, Major.
“Major”: The plane fell apart in the air. In the area of Petropavlovskaya mine. The first “200” (code word for dead person). We have found the first “200”. A Civilian.
Greek: Well, what do you have there?
Major: In short, it was 100 percent a passenger (civilian) aircraft.
Greek: Are many people there?
Major: Holy sh*t! The debris fell right into the yards (of homes).
Greek: What kind of aircraft?
Major: I haven’t ascertained this. I haven’t been to the main sight. I am only surveying the scene where the first bodies fell. There are the remains of internal brackets, seats and bodies.
Greek: Is there anything left of the weapon?
Major: Absolutely nothing. Civilian items, medicinal stuff, towels, toilet paper.
Greek: Are there documents?
Major: Yes, of one Indonesian student. From a university in Thompson. Fuck.
In a final phone call, included later in the recording, a rebel checks in with a Cossack commander.
Rebel: Regarding this plane that was downed in the Snizhne-Torez area. It turned out to be a passenger aircraft. It fell near Grabovo. A lot of bodies of women and children. Now the Cossacks are looking at all that.
Rebel: The TV said it was AN-26. A Ukrainian cargo plane. But Malaysia Airlines is written on it. What was it doing on Ukraine’s territory?
Cossack commander: It means they wanted to bring some spies to us. Fuck them. They should not fly, we are at war here
Christian Science Monitor reports a Ukrainian separatist rebel leader boasted about downing the jet on Russian language social media.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0717/Web-evidence-points-to-pro-Russia-rebels-in-downing-of-MH17
This will not end well for everyone. A very nasty mess.
Russia seems to be determined to go back to the reputation of pre-glasnost USSR as clumsy and hostile. Maybe Putin sees this as a useful image in the Age of Obama. Lefties are intimidated by clumsy hostile people who they don’t understand and try to propitiate.
Sort of like Muslims.
If this is true, the families of at least the American victims (possibly all the non-American victims too) have statutory federal tort causes of action against the Russian government with both appellate decisions in their favor, and an easy means of collecting their judgments. They can just attach the Ukrainian government’s payments to the Russian government for Russian gas exports to the Ukraine. I doubt the Ukrainian government would object at all to being used as a collection agent for such a judgment.
I very much doubt Putin will let the Russian government offer compensation as a “humanitarian” gesture. That would be too much an admission that Russia is invading the Ukraine even if it denies responsibility for the shootdown.
Jim Dunnigan made a real good point in a _Strategy Page_ podcast that the International Criminal Court and civil judgment prosecutions of corrupt and murderous former national leaders have told everyone that tryants and kleptocrats don’t dare retire. Putin will have bill collectors after him forever from the MH17 families. This will probably motivate to try to keep power until he dies, as Dunnigan pointed out Iraqi leader Maliki and his cronies are trying to do in Iraq.
Just as the Chinese curse is “May your children live in interesting times”, the American curse is “May your life be filled with lawyers”.
Suburban Commando at: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0103003/quotes
“Deak: Do you have any idea what we are gonna do to you, if we find one itty, bitty scratch on ’em?
Shep Ramsey: Let me guess. You’re gonna pound my face. Break every bone in my body. Then you’re gonna drag me across a gravel road and feed my remains to a warthog. Is that about right?
Deak: What are you nuts? This is the ’90s. We’re gonna sue you.”
Last month we deployed B-52s and B-2s to Britain as a show of force.
We should now send those bombers to Eastern Ukraine and take out those missiles.
Via Glen Reynolds, AKA Instapundit —
NOT ENTIRELY A SURPRISE, BUT STILL:
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the separatist commander in eastern Ukraine heard in an intercepted phone call saying that his men “shot down a plane” on Thursday was Igor Bezler.
The picture of Mr. Bezler used in the Ukrainian YouTube video on Thursday is a still image taken from a clip uploaded in April, when he was recorded during the rebel takeover of the town of Horlivka where he identified himself to police officers there as “a lieutenant colonel in the Russian Army.”
It’s Potemkin separatists all the way down.
3
Posted at 11:02 pm by Glenn Reynolds
Then there’s this from Bookworm:
http://www.bookwormroom.com/2014/07/17/is-obamas-constant-inappropriate-laughter-a-sign-that-he-is-suffering-from-a-mental-disorder/
Why does Obama mention a tragedy and smoothly transition into “jokes”? We are going to need a truth commission after Obama is gone.
“It’s Potemkin separatists all the way down.”
Kyiv Post on Twitter was reporting this morning that the missile system used to shoot the plane down has already been smuggled back into Russia.
I interpreted Obama’s behavior in the meeting with Perry as copying Biden’s behavior in the VP debate with Ryan. They think laughing at Republicans’ efforts to discuss problems is a strategy that appeals to their supporters who get their news from Jon Stewart. The press thing about the airplane is more weird.
He certainly seems disconnected.
Here is a considered response from HuffPo and a “top commenter” to give us an idea of the level of information on the left.
Bon Bell · Top Commenter
but the right wing nuts have been beating up the pres ENDLESSLY for not ‘arming the rebels’ … hope they know how much stupider they are and how much smarter the President is…. just letting all the whiners whine and ignore them!
“Arming the rebels ?” This is the Obama voter in broad daylight. Amazing.
Air Power Australia has the development history of the Buk SAM system used to down the MH-17 flight as of 2009.
See:
Self Propelled Air Defence System / SA-11/17 Gadfly/Grizzly
Technical Report APA-TR-2009-0706
by Dr Carlo Kopp, AFAIAA, SMIEEE, PEng
July 2009
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-9K37-Buk.html
For those who don’t want to process the stuff at the link, see this clip:
Novator 9M37-1/9M38/9M38M1 and DNPP 9M317E Surface to Air Missile
——————————————————————————–
The Novator 9M37-1/9M38/9M38M1 Gadfly and DNPP 9M317E Grizzly missiles are direct equivalents in basic design to the US Raytheon RIM-66 Standard family of naval missiles. The Russian missiles are slightly larger, by 17% in length and in diameter, with all missiles within ~3% of each other in launch weight. Range performance of the Russian missiles is similar to the RIM-66B, and lesser than the RIM-66C, although this may in part reflect control laws employed. The 9M317E Grizzly missile employs a very different, higher span and shorter chord configuration, cruciform wing design compared to the earlier missiles.
As this weapon remains in production, detailed materials on its internal configuration and design features are generally scarce.
The nose of the missile mounts the monopulse semiactive radar homing seeker under a dielectric radome. In the 9M37-1 missile the seeker is a 9E47 Virazh, in the 9M37M a 9E47M, the 9M38 a 9E50, and the 9M38M1 a 9E50M1. The new 9M317 missile uses the digital 9E420 seeker. The antenna configuration of the latter appears virtually identical to the 1SB4M seeker in the late model 3M9M3 Gainful missile.
The AIDS research and international activist community lost 100 of their own on the way to a conference in Australia.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/crash-claims-top-aids-researchers-heading-to-melbourne-20140718-zuaw3.html#ixzz37mvRT4G4
About 100 of the 298 people killed in the Malaysia Airlines crash were heading to Melbourne for a major AIDS conference, conference attendees have been told.
Delegates at a pre-conference in Sydney were told on Friday morning that around 100 medical researchers, health workers and activists were on the plane that went down near the Russia-Ukraine border, including former International AIDS Society president Joep Lange.
I heard yesterday that most airlines will not fly though areas that are combat zones. I wonder if this is the beginning of the end for Malaysian Airlines.