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  • Wisconsin Primary Analysis

    Posted by Dan from Madison on February 23rd, 2008 (All posts by )

    I am a very simple guy, and I ask simple questions. This political season I am asking a question to myself over and over and over – just how many conservative/libertarian folks such as myself have been crossing over and voting for Obama in open primaries? My initial guess was a bunch, and it looks as though I may have been correct.

    First, let me explain how the primary system works here in Wisconsin. You enter the polling place and are handed a ballot with each party’s candidates. You are then allowed to choose which primary you would like to vote in. Since I hate the woman from Hades so much I decided to vote for Obama, to do my part to keep her out of the White House. Not that he will be much better, but I do think that he will have to turn drastically to the center during the general campaign – if he is the winner of the D primary. But that is for another time.

    Now lets take a look at the results of the past few elections in Wisconsin.

    • 1996 – Clinton – 1,071,971 (49%) Dole – 845,029 (39%) Perot – 227,339 (10%)
    • 2000 – Bush – 1,237,279 (48%) Gore – 1,242,987 (48%) Nader – 94,070 (4%)
    • 2004 – Bush – 1,478,120 (49.4%) Kerry – 1,489,504 (49.7%)

    As you can see, this state is pretty well divided right down the middle.

    Now lets check out this year’s primary totals:

    • Obama: 646,007, Clinton: 452,795 – total 1,098,802 (75% of primary vote total)
    • McCain: 224,226, Huckabee: 151,201 – total 375,427 (25% of primary vote total)

    What this simple math tells me is that fewer Democrats came out in this intense primary than usually do in a presidential election. And that FAR fewer Republicans came out. This in and of itself isn’t unusual. I think that something more sinister is up though. I believe that tons of Republicans crossed over and voted for Obama. Being an open primary there really is no way to tell how many did cross over, but the total lack of interest in a pretty much already decided Republican contest had to contribute to many conservatives and other HRC haters casting votes for Obama. I am guessing that this is happening all across the country as well. The Dems may very well win this fall, but I believe they are in for a tougher fight than they may have bargained for.

    I don’t exactly watch the news shows that fixate on this stuff, but they really don’t seem to be saying too much about the “Hate Hill” factor, as I like to call it.

    As a side note, there was nothing else on the ballot at least in my county (Dane) this time around, just the primaries.

    Cross posted at LITGM.

     

    7 Responses to “Wisconsin Primary Analysis”

    1. Ginny Says:

      The only people who have told me who they were voting for (maybe five or six) are voting to “put a stake through her.” Probably the Pauline Kael syndrome, but it certainly seems a factor. On the other hand, I’m not. Gaming the primaries has consequences. Obamamania may crest before November, but the debates will match age with youth, experience with charm, a pugnacious pride with “audacious hope,” a heroic doer with a charismatic speaker. Intrade doesn’t expect that match-up to play out as I’d wish.

    2. Dan from Madison Says:

      Good thoughts Ginny, but I expect a Dem win this November no matter what, so Obama seems like my least bad choice at this point.

    3. Shannon Love Says:

      I think most non-independent voters who cross lines in primaries usually vote for the candidate they like best. They see it as an attempt to minimize the harm in case their primary choice fails. They seldom vote for the weakest candidate.

    4. fred lapides Says:

      Off topic comment (as usual) deleted.

    5. gina the spying dem Says:

      Do you hate Hillary because of the causes she champions? As a democrat. I think republicans who toy with the democratic process are treasoness. It contradicts everything you all claim to stand for. you are discusting to me.

    6. Dan from Madison Says:

      Sorry I am discusting [sic] and treasoness [sic]. But Wisconsin has an open primary. Why wouldn’t I use it to my fullest advantage? I didn’t make the rules, just playing by them. Anything to say about the tons of crossover votes Mr. Obama may be getting?

    7. Shannon Love Says:

      Gina The Spying Dem,

      Do you hate Hillary because of the causes she champions?

      Speaking personally, I mistrust Hillary because she reminds me very strongly of Nixon. She seems to have an air of entitlement to power and a very aristocratic contempt for anyone who might question her. The fact that she champions archaic, 1950’s era solutions to 21st century problems provokes no stronger emotion than annoyance.

      I think republicans who toy with the democratic process are treasoness.

      Open primaries are created specially to allow those who are independents or who belong to other parties to vote. It has its advantages to parties themselves. Parties, like any other similar organization (like churches), tend to dominated by the most extreme and dedicated elements. Selections by those elements produces candidates at the extremes of the electorate. Open primaries allows for the selection of candidates more likely to win in general elections.

      Parties themselves chose the form of their primaries. If you don’t like the Democrats having an open primary you might want to talk to them.