I have two predictions for 2025. These are based not on any deep analysis, but strictly on vibes.
–There is going to be a lot of new activity in manufacturing: startups, reshoring, rollups of small shops, skills training, and much more respect for the industry.
–The fertility rate will tick upwards.
Other predictions, whether vibes-based or analytical?
I agree with number one.
Fertility remains to be seen. I’d like to see the age at first marriage start to tick down before thinking that will happen.
One thing to watch regarding fertility trends is that non-native born women tend to have a higher fertility rate than native-born women… about 1.88 to 1.55
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61164
Just a variable to control for. Also worthwhile to look for other variables as well.
By contrast Hungary, which many conservatives see as a model, has seen fertility rates spike over the past 15 years though 1) that growth has leveled off and 2) is still low at 1.6 or so. The thing is that Hungary as a country is sort of the opposite of diverse (A 28-letter alphabet and tight border controls will to that) so it’s easier to test hypotheses.
Prediction: Lawyers will get even richer in 2025 filing lawsuits to stop all the attempts to rebuild factories and bring jobs (and tax revenue) back to the US. Think about the snail darter!
The Far Left is down today — but they are not out. And their playbook does not change — will not change! unless RINOs get a spine.