Trump

Tariffs

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…a few quick notes.

The US reciprocal tariffs announced by Trump yesterday are not based simply on the other’s countries’ tariffs for imports of US goods; rather, they attempt to also factor in the effect of currency and of non-tariff barriers. The way the numbers were actually determined is based on a simple algorithm driven by relative trade flows.  Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen explains how it works.  Here’s some detail from the US Trade Representative.

Also from the USTR, a very long document containing a country-by-country analysis of non-barriers faced by US imports.

Interesting post from a guy whose company builds machine tools in Japan:

I’m on the machine builder side of the equation, out of Japan. Looks like our product is going up 24% in price (we’ll probably absorb some, but machine tool margins are not astronomical).

We do production machines. Our biggest single customer is Apple, so when you need 100,000+ of something, you call us. If this was just a Japan trade war, we would be boned…

But it isn’t. My books were already full of projects coming back from China. Small companies with big, commodity (500k+ unit) volumes, and we were already showing that you *can* do stuff in the US at a competitive cost with good process design, smart machine selection, and existing automation. This market will be able to absorb a 20% equipment price increase, and still come out way ahed compared to building their product oversees (not just China, but bejesus… overseas *anywhere*).

So short term, this is gonna suck… but the future was going in a direction of unlimited downside, and if this is what it takes to swing that into long-term health? So be it – all of the people saying this is insanity seem to be clinging to a status quo that everyone with eyes could see is headed towards disaster – they have no better answers.

 

 

 

This is Bad

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As almost everyone knows, the Navajo Code Talkers were a group of WWII Marines who provided secure communications by the simple expedient of transmitting and receiving orders in their own language. This procedure was much faster than conventional encryption / decryption methods, and the Navajo language was apparently so little-known and so complex that the Japanese were never able to read such messages.

Someone at the Department of Defense (or more likely some set of someones) apparently interpreted President Trump’s executive order on DEI as meaning that it would be improper to refer to the Navajo Code Talkers as…Navajos, and at least 10 articles mentioning the Code Talkers have been removed from DoD websites.

There have been many other questionable deletions made on counter-DEI grounds, such as the deletion of items about Ira Hayes of Iwo Jima fame.  The Navajo Code Talkers deletions I find particularly bad because their being Navajo–specifically, being speakers of the Navajo language–was an inherent enabler of the work that they did.  To refer to their accomplishments without reference to their language (and hence, their tribal background) would be as silly as banning a post on codemakers and codebreakers of the more conventional sort from disclosing that many of them had mathematical or linguistic backgrounds.

I don’t know if this is malicious compliance, or arrant stupidity, or just robotic bureaucratic behavior, but I think it is really, really bad.  It reminds me of the Left’s destruction of statues.  It’s harmful to the country and also harmful to the political future of Republicans/MAGA. It’s not at all consistent with an intelligent narrative of American patriotism and identity.

Worthwhile Reading

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Attacks on Churchill…from the Right.  This sort of thing feeds the same “aren’t we just awful” mindset that we see so much of from the Left.

Student expectations for careers versus actual outcomes.

Trump, Peggy Noonan, and the Old Guard.

How the Past envisaged our Present.

Martin Gurri on the importance of free speech: The Great American Debate Begins Again. Indeed, a lot of people seem to reject the whole idea of debate and of adversary proceedings in courts: they want an Authority to tell them what is true.

Related: Obama’s messaging machine.

Do graphic design and aesthetics affect the credibility of political communications?

Propellers versus paddle wheels: a case study in the introduction of a disruptive technology.

Jet engine turbine blades and single-crystal casting. Interesting that this sort of thing is rarely referred to as ‘tech’ by the media.

What are the health effects of replacing incandescent bulbs with LEDs?

A Barrage of Narratives

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I was trying to generate an image of Trump riding a war eagle and leading a barrage of narratives to overwhelm the Left’s defenses but my prompt engineering skills aren’t up to it today.

So two notes about the past few days.

The first is about this piece from John Konrad:

I opened my NYTimes app today. They’re trying, but they can’t keep up. News that broke just hours ago is already off the homepage.

THIS IS CRUCIAL

The entire liberal deep state command and control system is broken. Let me explain.

The NYTimes’ primary function isn’t journalism. It’s narrative coordination—setting the frame so the entire political-media machine knows how to think about an issue before it takes off.

Read more

They Accuse!

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The ridiculousness about Elon Musk’s hand gesture reminded me of something: In his memoir of Spain before and during their civil war, Arturo Barea said that on one occasion, he was showing a friend how tall a child was–“like this,” he said, holding up his hand to indicate the height. He was accused of giving the Fascist salute, and was saved from the firing squad only by the intervention of credible friends.