The “Dick” Economy

When I was a consultant I traveled throughout the US and worked in many different states and regions. I grew up in the Midwest, where my core values were shaped. A general description of these values in business would be a variant of the “golden rule” – from wikipedia:

The Golden Rule or ethic of reciprocity is a maxim, ethical code, or morality that essentially states either of the following:

(Positive form): One should treat others as one would like others to treat oneself.
(Negative/prohibitive form, also called the Silver Rule): One should not treat others in ways that one would not like to be treated.

This concept describes a “reciprocal” or “two-way” relationship between one’s self and others that involves both sides equally and in a mutual fashion.

This sort of approach wasn’t out of the “goodness of your heart”, it was a fair and reasonable way to approach your customer or supplier. An example – you are working on a job at a price that you both agreed upon, and then you find that things are significantly different than planned and you will come up far short of your original profitability or even lose money on the job – what do you do?

You approach the customer, subtly, and describe some of the new or unseen events that have changed the scope of the project since inception. The customer has a few options – they can 1) give you nothing and tell you to “eat the difference” 2) split the difference on some of the unforeseen items which may not make you whole but softens the blow 3) not change the current deal at all but implicitly or explicitly tell you that there are future opportunities to make yourself whole.

More often than not, we eventually came to a #2 type resolution, although it was often linked with a #3 type opportunity. Rarely were we just told to “pound sand” and take the #1 option.

Why is it this way? On the surface it would seem that, as a customer, #1 would always be preferable. You have a binding contract, why not stick it to your vendor? A few reasons – a bitter vendor is unlikely to do good work, and will look at the contract in detail to find a way to stick it back to you by living to the “letter” not “spirit” of the agreement. An additional component is that if you behave as if life was a series of single transactions with no consequences to others (i.e. a series of #1 events), you eventually end up with a reputation as a “bad customer” and this will come to damage you in various ways; often it will get raised from the vendors boss to the customers’ boss at the golf course or some other type of less formal venue; and most companies don’t want a reputation for being difficult and vindictive. An additional element is that this type of behavior is generally not how people in the Midwest live their lives – it will probably be correlated with other types of behaviors (selfishness, not looking out for co-workers, extreme ambition) that will lead to at least a mild ostracism or at least career damage.

The second part of a series of #1 issues is that the SUPPLIER can just walk away from the job in the first place if they aren’t going to earn a sufficient profit. Sure, you can sue them, but the courts take forever and meanwhile, whatever project you hired the supplier for in the first place is languishing (i.e. a product launch, or a cost reduction project, etc…). This is a variant of the golden rule on the part of the supplier, which means that they have an obligation to do the best work possible under the spirit of the agreement to make the purchaser look good.

In my limited experience the apex of #1 experiences on all side was New York. Even the simplest item became a desperate bargaining scrum, with both sides scouring the other for weaknesses and gleefully “sticking it to them” whenever possible. If you approached a NY transaction with the attitude of a midwesterner, you were going to get screwed, because they were going to walk all over you and push for favorable terms and lord over you their advantages while you would be loathe to use the same tactics in return. Soon even the dimmest types have to take on #1 attitudes, and then regular update meetings are just taking turns throwing the other guy “under the bus” and scheming to leverage the fine print. A real joy.

The difficulty with #1 behavior is that it “negates” itself when confronted by both parties using this set of tactics. Now you get back to equilibrium, but the entire transaction and work effort is bitter and poisoned. As far as future work, you just “roll forward” your grievances into the NEXT transaction and find ever more creative ways to win with #1 tactics in the future, as both sides escalate.

Read more

Around Chicago February 2012

Upper left – the hotel Dana. There is a cool Asian restaurant in the hotel – the billboard has a girl with 2 different colored eyes. On the roof of that hotel there is a club that is open all winter. Note – from behind – that building looks like a Soviet creation it is all faceless wall with one window. Upper middle – a cool new building on the Northwestern medical campus in Streeterville. Upper right – a little candle lit setup in the restaurant Zocalo in River North. Lower left – some random construction in River North. They are just adding a level on top of a building like it is a third world country or something. Lower middle – Chick Fil A is in Chicago near the Magnificent Mile – that place is awesome! Lower right – a cool red building in River North.

Cross posted at LITGM

It Works Until It Doesn’t

Back in 2008-9, when it seemed that the world was about to implode, I wrote this article about how odd it was that JP Morgan Chase stepped in and bought an entire bond issue from the State of Illinois, at a time when no one else was interested in our debt.

The US government has been buying its own debt for some time now. The WSJ today had an article entitled “Treasurys Face Tougher Path” that sums up our dilemma:

“If we remove the Fed’s purchasing and remove the trillions in Treasurys they hold, what would be the true market value of Treasurys?… I think we would certainly have failed auctions at the current interest rates if the Fed was not the majority purchaser”

A different article in today’s WSJ called “EU Banks Stashing Cash for Safety” reported that European banks were “parking” their money with central banks rather than lend out to customers, purchase securities (like bonds, above), or loan it to one another.

The 8 giant European banks that have disclosed their annual results in recent weeks reported holding a total of about $816 billion in cash and deposits at central banks as of Dec 31… that is up 50% from a year earlier… The stockpiling… represented a collective response to the growing pressures on the European Financial system. By storing funds at central banks in Europe, the US, and elsewhere, banks assure that their money is safe.

As the article above states, we don’t know what the price of debt would be if the US government wasn’t purchasing a substantial portion of the total issuance. It likely would be higher. And in Europe, with losses looming on Greek debt, banks are now questioning their position in the debt markets and apparently “parking” their money more and more rather than purchasing government debt issues.

In the US we take for granted that we can keep issuing debt to fund our ballooning deficit and that we can find willing buyers at miniscule interest rates. We are also putting our hand on the scale by buying back a lot of the securities that we are auctioning off (try explaining that one to someone who isn’t sophisticated in finance). Like everything else, this works until it doesn’t, and with banks and the US government not buying bonds in the same quantities, who IS going to want to load up on Treasurys at these rates?

In parallel, the stock market is returning more than ever when dividends are taken into account. There never has been a time in recent history where stocks (assuming dividends and share buy-backs) are returning such a high premium over debt. Thus why would individuals want to purchase Treasurys when (cash) returns in stocks are so much higher?

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. My guess is that it will end badly.

The Intelligence of the Crow

A while back I read a book called “Ravens in Winter” and found the lives of crows and ravens to be very interesting. The book describes how they communicate food sources to one another through some type of unknown mechanism and their general high intelligence level.

When I was in Norway I came across a Carrion Crow (or at least I think it is; I looked it up on wikipedia) that found a clam-shell container that usually contains take out food. The crow obviously knew that it was correlated with food and poked it with its beak and shook it about deliberately before throwing it to the ground in disgust. I took a video and uploaded it and you can see it in HD here which I find very humorous.

Before 9/11 I traveled to Tasmania and had an encounter with what I believe was a Forest Raven, although once again I am not an ornithologist. The bird was AMAZINGLY persistent – when our car pulled up to a clearing it jumped on the side mirror (the window was open) and looked me right in the face (with big yellow eyes) and started cawing for food. I rolled up the window and it sat right on the hood of the car staring at me through the dashboard. I have never seen an (ostensibly wild) bird so unafraid of humans.

Cross posted at LITGM

Our Short Attention Span Future

One time I was stuck in a hotel room somewhere and an old rerun of “Welcome Back Kotter” came on. For some reason I stuck with the channel for a few minutes and was struck by something.

At one point the main character starts a monologue. They apparently had only one camera and he seemed to speak into it forever, without interruption. While it seemed like minutes, it probably was maybe 20 seconds or so.

This is how our brains were wired growing up. We watched TV shows (which supposedly rotted our brains, too, or so we were told) but they were in molasses and had few or no cuts compared to seemingly anything on TV today.
 


 
This video by a new singer out of England (I am not going to mention her name but it is easy to figure out – we don’t want the traffic) is designed for kids and younger people with the attention span of a gnat. The video is under 4 minutes long and it easily has 200 or so cuts… I lost track trying to count them. It is simply astonishing how much they pack into there. I think the longest pause is essentially an ad for a brand of watch (product placement) at the 2:32 mark – maybe a couple of seconds.

This is the future of attracting attention and it will certainly be a short-attention span future.

I am a bit ashamed to admit it but I find this song a bit catchy and certainly her looks did not hurt her choice of career.

Cross posted at LITGM