Chicagoania

I Like Things That Don’t Happen Very Often

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According to CNN, Governor Blago has the right to access the Senate floor. Wouldn’t it be interesting to see that clown walking and talking amongst the Senators? He is crazy enough to do it.

Roland Burris, the *legally appointed* Junior Senator from the State of Illinois does not have legal access to the Senate floor, it appears.

The aide familiar with Senate Democratic leaders’ plans said if Burris tries to enter the Senate chamber, the Senate doorkeeper will stop Burris. If Burris were to persist, either trying to force his way onto the Senate floor or refusing to leave and causing a scene, U.S. Capitol Police would stop him, said the aide.

“They (police) probably won’t arrest him” but they would call the sergeant-at-arms,” the aide said.

When asked about what would happen if he shows up and tries to be seated, Burris told the Chicago Tribune that he’s, “not going to create a scene in Washington.” He added, “We hope it’s negotiated out prior to my going to Washington.”

Burris told CNN that, “We’re certainly going to make contacts with the leadership to let them know that the governor of Illinois has made a legal appointment. And that I am currently the junior senator for the State of Illinois. And we’re hoping and praying that, you know, they will see the reason in appointing me as a very qualified, capable, able and ready-to-serve individual.”

Coincidentally, the senate sergeant-at-arms, Terrance Gainer, served in the Illinois government at the same time as Burris. Gainer was the director of the Illinois State Police from 1991-95. Burris was the Illinois attorney general from 1991-95.

Senate Democratic leaders, who consider Governor Rod Blagojevich a loose cannon, also have discussed what might happen if Blagojevich shows up on Capitol Hill Tuesday, said the aide familiar with their plans. But the leaders see that move by Blagojevich as unlikely at this time.

This would be a “radioactive” situation, according to the aide, because Senate Democratic leaders could not deny Blagojevich entry, as sitting governors have floor privileges in the Senate. Governors are allowed to walk around the Senate chamber or talk with senators while on the floor, though they cannot vote or formally address the Senate.

Interesting times indeed. As Lex Green has pointed out elsewhere, the Illinois Clown Show is on the road in Washington.

By the way, the comments to that article are pretty interesting.

Municipal Bonds… and Illinois

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Illinois Bond Sale

MUNICIPAL BONDS

A difficulty with finance is that statistics are all backwards-looking. For instance, there were umpteen articles about how stocks “return x% over y number of years” or that “residential real estate is a solid investment based on returns in area x over y number of years”. We all know how those assumptions turned out.

While research is useful and assumptions need to be made, a crucial error that has lead to much of our financial malaise is due to retaining assumptions too long rather than chucking them aside when the underlying facts on the ground change. You also need to be aware of shifts in sentiment and try to anticipate what is going to happen next.

Specifically, municipal bonds have historically had a low default rate, less than 1%. And when they do default, investors generally have a relatively high “recovery percentage” (as opposed to Lehman when creditors received 7 cents on every dollar owed). Many investors view them as almost as safe as the debt of the Federal government. Municipal bonds are (generally) tax-free, so a municipal bond can have a lower debt coupon and still attract as many investors as a tax-adjusted amount from a corporate bond sale. I am generally speaking of general obligation debt, not the revenue bonds that might be tied to corporations or other initiatives (these carry a higher coupon and default rate).

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Anywhere Else Likely A Drive Off…

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As I was walking at Grand and LaSalle today doing some Christmas shopping the guy next to me pointed out something in the snow right next to us. It was the nozzle from a gas station that someone had apparently driven off with and which ended up here. If you look in the picture to the upper right you can see the BP gas station from whence it came…

Drive Off Nozzle

Weirdly enough, what I thought of immediately was not that someone absently drove off with that nozzle still attached to their gas tank, nor that they stole the gas and drove away in haste, but that they (might have) drove off with that nozzle still attached in fear from attack from aggressive vagrants.

River North is a very wealthy area of Chicago, but since we are near downtown and filled with (well meaning) tourists, our neighborhood is filled with the homeless, bums and panhandlers. Here is a helpful schematic post that I created to identify their various types. That BP gas station is notorious – I won’t go there at all if I can possibly avoid it, because they so aggressively try to pump your gas for you and you can’t really get away from them if you have to stand there while your tank is filling.

The situation was documented when an off duty policeman was stabbed by a homeless person while filling his gas tank at that very station. Here is a link to a story about that stabbing. You’d figure that an off duty policeman is likely to be an intimidating figure, so it would be much worse if you were a woman or elderly.

Or it could have been a drive off, or someone who is absent minded. Either way I’d recommend that you find a different gas station.

An Interview Entrepreneur

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I was walking near work recently when I saw this guy with a sandwich board (it was a few weeks ago because he isn’t dressed like an Eskimo) and a sign reading “I will buy an interview” and his own web site www.buyaninterview.com. At the web site you can see that it is the same person in the photos – his name is Javier Pujals. From a review of his resume he has a varied business background, acting as a project manager, business analyst, and having set up his own firm at one point. He also says he has five kids, which probably accounts for his zeal and ability to face ridicule by standing on the street corner like this.

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A Thought Experiment

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In past (work) lives I traveled across the USA and worked in many different cities. I think by the time I was done I had worked in 30+ states at one time or another. When I worked in Minneapolis, for instance, I was struck by the fact that when traffic was clear, most cars would travel near the speed limit, or maybe 5 or so mph faster. This pattern repeated itself in most other cities where I was forced to get a rental car and drive to the client on a regular basis.

In Chicago, on the other hand, on the few times when traffic is not congested, the average speed on an interstate highway like the Kennedy or Dan Ryan or Eisenhower is WAY up in the 80’s. Even in a construction zone (like today on I88), if you drive near the posted speed limit, you are like a rock in the stream.

One of the clearest ways to test this proposition is to leave the Chicago loop on one of the few times it is not congested (say, Sunday morning) and take I290 (Eisenhower) West, towards the suburbs. I290 “starts” from the loop so when you get on it is WIDE open… and then as the exits move on traffic gets worse until you reach gridlock (on most days, not on a Sunday).

This photo shows the wide open traffic from the view of my high powered almost a decade-old Nissan Altima. You can see that I am in the middle lane.

The EXPERIMENT would be – how f*cking fast would you have to go in order to stay in the left lane until it ends (at Austin, when I290 inexplicably loses a lane) and NOT get passed, assuming it was mostly wide open in front of you. On a typical day you’d have to go at least 100 miles / hour because people are absolutely FLYING down that road. It is even crazier on the Dan Ryan once you get south of the Loop.   I know that I am not crazy enough to do it.

I don’t know what it is about Chicago drivers but they seem possessed to drive as fast as they can in the brief moments that they can see daylight and clear pavement.

Cross posted at LITGM