The Music Industry

\"TV Ad For Mars Volta\"

A while back I was watching a television show that I enjoy called “No Reservations” with Anthony Bourdain when he traveled to Crete and Greece when I saw something completely astounding on television – an advertisement for the band “The Mars Volta” and their new disc, a CD that I actually went out and purchased (still don’t understand it yet).

Why was this astounding… because despite being a semi-avid disc buyer for decades the advertisements that I have seen were usually useless and not directed at me; but for once the record business actually targeted a show I’d watch with an ad that I would have responded to. So for a brief glimmer, an instant, I could see what some of these thousands of non-musicians that make up the music industry do and how it could add value.

ABOUT THE MUSIC INDUSTRY

Over the last several years the major record labels have been undergoing constant layoffs, restructuring, and mergers in an attempt to re-invent themselves in the digital age. There are four “major labels” today which control about 80% of the industry, with independent labels covering the rest.

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CPA Debate

The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) publishes a monthly magazine titled The Journal of Accountancy. In their May 2008 issue, they have a point-counterpoint (not as wild as the old Saturday Night Live skits with “Jane, you ignorant sl*t”) on the topic of “fair value” for accounting.

I posted indirectly on the topic of fair value in this post when I noted that quarterly reporting, which is frequently charged with contributing to short-term thinking in the markets, had salutary effects in that CEOs were forced to publish results frequently which led to the ousters of many CEOs in the financial industry who were responsible for disastrous write-offs.

WHAT IS FAIR VALUE?

In a simplified version, the topic of “fair value” relates to whether or not write-downs should be taken on assets on the balance sheet (which reduces profits on the income statement) based upon reductions in market values, even if the assets haven’t been sold. For example, if a company has a bunch of loans on their books for $10B, and based on recent downturns in the market and sales of similar assets to third parties, the CURRENT value is $8B, then that company would reduce the value of the asset by $2B on the balance sheet and show a $2B loss on their income statement.

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State Created Black Markets

This is a very interesting article in the WSJ about how it apparently now seems to be more profitable (and less risky) to steal a semi full of cigarettes than to steal an armored car full of cash. This is mainly due to the mountains of taxes that the various agencies in New York have put on the product. You have a huge state tax on top of the New York City tax, making a very nice spread between a non taxed product and a taxed product.

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Defeating the Washington Monument Syndrome

Bureaucrats defend themselves against proposed reductions in what they believe they have coming to them by immediately threatening to close down the most popular and/or most vital service they provide. The US Park Service became famous for it and gave the phenomenon its name through its habit of immediately closing down the immensely popular Washington Monument whenever a government shutdown occurred or threatening to close it down when budget cuts were discussed. It’s a species of blackmail, simple to operate, but even simpler to shut down, if you understand it and have the guts and the foresight to prepare.

All government services provide various levels of benefit to the public, from essentials like police protection and national defense down to museums on the history of condiment and bridges to nowhere. At the same time they distort, to a greater or lesser degree the private sphere. Sometimes this is a net good (police departments distorting the private gang system) and other times it’s not so good (we’ve yet to recover from disruptive urban renewal bulldozing of black neighborhoods in the 20th century). All these activities have to be funded by some sort of tax or fee and the taxes too have various levels of pain and benefit associated with them. The taxes also distort the private sphere (sales taxes suppress consumption, inheritance taxes suppress thrift, luxury taxes shift buying yachts to Canada).

It’s perfectly possible for any individual and for our society in general to list out taxes and spending, from least justifiable to most in two lists. Politicians occasionally do this and try to reign in various forms of government stupidity. The Washington Monument Syndrome consists of bureaucrats taking threatened spending cuts and applying the cuts to the wrong end of the list at key moments before there is a popular consensus on cutting spending, disrupting spending control plans.

The solution to this syndrome is simple, ban it. Remove civil service protection from government workers who engage in the practice. Follow through by getting these blackmailers out of government service when they try their tricks anyway.

We need to change the sequence of events so that the consensus of what’s most valuable is arrived at first. Then when stark economic reality shows up and revenues aren’t there to cover expenses, we already know where all the cuts would land. Bureaucrats who significantly deviate off the list and purposefully pick painful targets for cuts will be exposed for what they have always been: saboteurs of the will of the people, emotional blackmail artists holding popular programs hostage.

Ideally you would develop the cut lists in good times as an exercise in civic responsibility and first execute the list in bad times so spending cuts do the least harm and tax cuts the most good. As a political reality, things are never that neat. Good and bad times are never universal. Probably the best time to do it is in the honeymoon phase of our next Democrat president, when the media’s in the tank and blowing kisses at the new administration. It gives the opposition something to do and answers the charge of “how to pay for” tax cuts. The people decide what they want and the government organizes and gives voice to their sometimes contradictory desires.

It also puts the shoe on the other foot in terms of government economic analysis. Static analysis of tax cuts, inaccurately taking into account their growth effects, would lead to steeper cuts in spending than necessary. Besides being economically illiterate (which it always was), that sort of analysis would become a politically perilous thing to do because it would lead to more people losing services.

Another follow on effect is an opportunity for privatization. Certain services will lose their secure funding, and become episodic. We’ll fund them in good times but they’ll repeatedly face the chopping block in bad times. Private philanthropy could step in and ensure steady funding through an endowment so the job gets done without this government spending yo-yo. This splits the actual “bleeding heart liberals” off the socialist coalition as it becomes clear that sometimes shrinking government is a better way to actually get something done for the poor and the powerless.

Number Gut Part II

Way back in 2004 I wrote about how the lack of an intuitive sense of scale prevented many people from viewing the Lancet Iraqi Mortality survey with skepticism. The same lack of sense of scale shows up in other areas such as in this article (via Megan McArdle) about ending subsidies to the oil industry instead of levying a windfall-profits tax.

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