Military Affairs

Obama’s Foreign Policy Challenges

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Fascinating essay over at Stratfor that details the hard decisions that Obama will have to make in the first few months after taking office.

I found the analysis of the situation in Afghanistan to be particularly interesting. Obama has promised to forge a coalition of NATO allies to help win the war there, as well as take some of the burden off of our own troops. I have always figured that to be a pipe dream since most of the European governments have cut back military budgets to the point that they simply cannot project force beyond their own borders without significant help from the Anglosphere, particularly the United States. What good will it do for President Obama to go to the Europeans, hat in hand, and ask for a greater military commitment when there simply is no military for them to commit?

Many of the people I know in the US military have expressed similar thoughts to me. It seems to be weighing rather heavily on their minds of late.

Anyway, there really is nothing that I can add that would be of any use. Click on that link at the top of this post to read it for yourself.

(Hat tip to Shooter.)

Veterans Day 2008

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Chicagoboyz salutes US veterans and service members. Thanks!

Oh, and Happy 233rd Anniversary to the USMC.

Frozen In Time

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I started working in Chicago in the early ’90s. At that time, we had a hangover from the ’80s building boom, with a number of completed but vacant buildings. Our firm moved in at 161 N Clark Avenue, the Chicago Title and Trust Building, which was almost totally empty at the time. I remember walking through the floors and around the halls to get a 360 degree view of the city. Later Accenture (the consulting firm) moved in and ultimately the building seemed to get totally filled up.

After the ’80s building boom which tailed off in the early ’90s, Chicago construction went dormant. Nothing significant seemed to get built for a few years since no one could put an economic case together for more building while so much was vacant.

In the late ’90s and into the ’00s, Chicago construction boomed again. Per this Chicago Tribune article,

For a decade now, Chicago has been on an astonishing building binge. Since 1998, developers here have completed or started construction on more than 195 high-rise buildings, according to the Emporis building database. (A high-rise is defined as a building at least 12 stories tall.) That’s more high-rises than there are in all of Detroit (132), St. Louis (106) or Milwaukee (83).

But now it is all grinding to a halt. Some sky scrapers are stalled for lack of funding:

Work also is frozen at 111 W. Wacker Drive, home to Chicago’s other stalled supertall skyscraper, the Waterview Tower and Shangri-La Hotel. (To be considered “supertall,” a skyscraper needs to be at least 1,000 feet high.) … the project is stuck on the 26th floor, its exposed concrete frame looming over Wacker … (the project requires more) than $300 million in construction financing to finish the job.

Here is a view of the construction of the Shangri-La from my window… note the other building still under construction on the left.

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The Choice

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A vote for Obama on Tuesday is not just a vote for Obama himself, but rather a vote for the triumvirate Obama-Pelosi-Reid…a vote to transfer enormous power to the leadership of the Democratic Party.

I’m convinced that across multiple sets of issues, the country will be far better off with a victory for John McCain and Sarah Palin. Here are some of the key factors as I see them:

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Pirates and Insurance Blackmail

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I have previously discussed how effective measures to combat modern day piracy on the high seas won’t come about until the insurance costs get too high. Piracy will continue until the the increase in insurance premiums for getting attacked by pirates exceeds the amount the underwriters will charge if armed guards are placed on board.

This recent post at StrategyPage.com pretty much says the same thing. NATO warships might be tasked with anti-pirate patrol, but they won’t actually shoot anyone for fear of bad press. The pirates know they have a good thing going, and there will be more attacks in the future. The shipping companies aren’t about to place armed guards on board their vessels since the higher premiums they have to pay for pirate insurance is less than what the underwriters will charge for having private troops on the vessels.

I figure one of two things will happen.

The gangs will continue to raid enough ships for them to have a big (in Somalian terms) payday through ransom money, but not enough for it to make sense to actually attack the outlaws. It will be the same-old, same-old for years to come.

More pirate gangs will form to grab a slice of the pie. Either the number of attacked ships passes an economic tipping point, or some undisciplined criminals start slaughtering innocent crew members that they have taken hostage. Eventually NATO starts to clean house, and the number of pirate attacks are reduced for decades afterwards.

It looks to me like more of the same-old, same-old is more likely in the foreseeable future.