Protecting Feelings II

Update:   There is likely something in this of why black males are defecting to Trump much more than black females, but I can’t quite see what that is.  Offer suggestions you think might fit.

As I developed this, I think I came upon an explanation of the Sanders/Biden split in the Democratic primaries as well. I almost made that into a separate post because I am striving for shorter essays these days, but the one topic just flowed into the other. Bear with me, and be charitable.

James the Lesser uses the word “perverse” to describe the elevation of feelings over actual sickness and safety in the comments under Protecting Feelings, just a few days ago. It is also revealing of the motivations of those folks.  No one who has been sick near death would say having their feelings hurt was worse, nor would we say that if we had had the experience of watching another go through a terrible illness. It is rather like those people who tell us that various verbal oppressions are just as bad as physical abuse, or that sexual harassment is just as bad as rape.  Those who have been abused or raped might give a different answer, don’t you think? These must either be people who do not believe that the danger is real, or are vulnerable enough that the social death of hurt feelings is the worst they can imagine.

This latter came up in reference to Jonathan Haidt’s The Coddling of the American Mind, which I discussed about ten weeks ago. He identifies the highschool classes of 2013 and 2014 as a sharp break point, with anxiety, depression, and suicide rising in that group and remaining high.  He attributes this to this being the first cohort which had personal devices starting in middle school. They really do live in a world where social death is more frightening, because it can strike in an instant and there is no effective fighting back.  Those whose personalities were formed outside of internet life have resilience against this.

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Co-Vid -19 and Supply Chain

As I mentioned on these pages a few days ago, I am attending a national conference in DC for my company and around 300 of our vendors. As a reminder, I am involved in industrial distribution (actually HVAC distribution, which is a subset of industrial distribution).

I asked the same question of dozens of my top vendors, and it was basically “what issues are you seeing with regards to the production slowdowns in China?”. I left the question open intentionally as I didn’t want to funnel responses.

Almost all of them, as if they rehearsed their responses together, said the following:

We have enough safety stock to get us through the Spring orders and a few months afterward.
We are in constant contact with our Chinese vendors (as if this means anything) and are looking at alternate sources (prices will increase).
There may be shortages on certain items in the future.

I distilled these responses down a bit and thought about it and I think that there will be some supply chain issues, and there may be some opportunities. One vendor remarked that once Chinese production is fully back on line that there is a container logjam anticipated that might put some orders back several months. The vendors could be giving us the “remain calm” routine to try to keep runs on product to a minimum, but the demand in HVAC just isn’t there right now, as we are firmly in “shoulder” season. Shoulder season is Spring and Fall, where there aren’t too many emergencies, unless you live in the commercial world, where everything is an emergency.

Not much more outside of these comments was related to me and I think they are for the most part telling the truth. I guess we will know in a few months. If we start out Spring with some hot weather like in 2018, we could start to see some relationships tested.

SARS-CoV2/COVID-19 Update 3 March 2020

This will be a short update. Issues covered will be on COVID-19 spread, World Headlines, COVID-19 medical developments regards PPE & the role of building contamination in spreading disease in Japan, and the social media and videos COVID-19 tracking source section.
 
Top line, There are currently 92,138 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide, including 3,134 fatalities as of the 3 March 2020 at 5:51 a.m. ET time hack on the BNO News corona virus traking site (https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/) There are 70(+) and growing nations including China plus three “Chinese special administrative regions” (Macao, Hong Kong and Taiwan) that have reported COVID-19 infections. China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Italy, Iran, Germany, R.O.K. and the USA all appear to have local, or endemic, spread of the disease.
The reality of personal protective equipment shortages in the USA because we outsourced most such production to China.
The reality of personal protective equipment shortages in the USA because we outsourced most such production to China and many regional medical systems sent a lot of our existing medical PPE to China in January 2020 per the request of the CDC.
 
World Headline Summary (As of late evening 3/2/2020):
 
o US death toll climbs to 6; all in WA, which has 18 cases
o 2 new cases confirmed in Tampa Bay
o 1st case reported in New Hampshire
o Hubei reports 114 new cases, 31 new deaths
o Santa Clara County confirms 2 more cases, bringing county total to 9
o Gottlieb warns US cases likely in ‘low thousands’
o Illinois announces 4th case
o Boris Johnson: “A very significant expansion” of the virus is “clearly in the cards”
o Italian death toll climbs 18 to 52 while total cases surpasses 2,000
o BMW tells 150 to quarantine after Munich employee infected
o Algeria total hits 5
o Senegal becomes 2nd sub-Saharan country to confirm virus
o WHO’s Tedros: Virus is “common enemy” of humanity so don’t focus on blame
o Jordan reports first two cases
o French death toll revised to 3, total cases climb to 191
o Tunisia reports first case
o UK total climbs to 40
o OECD warns global growth could fall by half
o Indonesia reports first cases
o “Progress is being made” toward a vaccine
o Cuomo says NY expects more cases
o India confirms 2 more cases
o ‘Official’ Iran death toll hits 66
o EU confirms 38 deaths across 18 members
o First cases confirmed in Fla.
o 2 Amazon employees test positive in Milan
o Virus now in 8 US states: Washington, California, Illinois, Rhode Island, New York, Florida, Oregon and New Hampshire
o San Antonio virus patient re-hospitalized after testing positive
o China warns it could face ‘locust invasion’
 
COVID-19 MEDICAL DEVELOPMENTS
 
This article is very much worth reading in full, printing out a copy, highlighting and carrying around. I’ll excerpt a couple of sections from it below the title and link:
 
Unmasked: Experts explain necessary respiratory protection for COVID-19
by Stephanie Soucheray
CIDRAP News, Feb 13, 2020
 
 

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Politics, Demographics, and Milkshakes

Much political media coverage these days focuses on demographic categories:  How will candidate X do among women…among Black people…gay people…low-income people…etc?  And much if not most political marketing is also aligned along these categories.

Demographic and targeting are also used in business marketing, of course.  But that’s not the *only* approach that can be used.

In his book The Innovator’s Solution, the late Dr Clayton Christensen told of a restaurant chain which was trying to improve sales results for its milkshake product line. “The chain’s marketers segmented its customers along a variety of psychobehavioral dimension in order to define a profile of the customer most likely to buy milkshakes. In other words, it first structured its market by product–milkshakes–and then segmented it by the characteristics of existing milkshake customers….both attribute-based categorization schemes. It then assembled panels of people with these attributes, and explored whether making the shakes thinker, chocolatier, cheaper, or chunkier would satisfy them better.”  Marketing 101 stuff, but it didn’t yield much in terms of results.

A different team of researchers. found that, surprisingly, most of the milkshakes were being bought in the early morning. Customer interviews indicated that these were people who faced a long, boring commute and wanted something to eat/drink on the way. Milkshakes were superior to alternatives because they didn’t get crumbs all over (like bagels) or get the steering wheel greasy (like a sausage & egg sandwich.)  And the morning milkshake buyers wanted shakes that were thick, in a large container, whereas the customers at other times preferred less-viscous shakes and smaller containers.  (Even though the morning and non-morning customers might be the very same individuals)

Christensen observed that a product can be thought of in terms of the ‘job’ it is doing for the customer:  what is a customer trying to accomplish when he ‘hires a milkshake’?

The parallel isn’t perfect, but something like the same thought process might be applicable in political marketing:  What is a voter trying to accomplish when he ‘hires’ a candidate for X position?

For example, there are a lot of voters who lives in areas with poor public schools and who are not in a position to send their kids to private school.  Maybe the ‘job’ they want to ‘hire’ a politician for is to give them realistic alternatives.  And maybe the appeal of this message is pretty independent of whether the voters are male, female, black, or white, and of whatever sexual preference they have.

There are a lot of voters who own small business.  They have a lot of broadly-similar issues that are relevant to politics, and, again, these are mostly independent of the usual demographic categories.

Seems to me that a lot more could be done with this kind of cross-demographic-category marketing…not that demographics can be totally ignored, but that other voter-behavior factors need more consideration.

Also, it’s important to note that the Democrats are, because of their emphasis on top-down planning, inherently much more focused on demographic categorization than are the Republicans.  As Rose Wilder Lane wrote:

Nobody can plan the actions of even a thousand living persons, separately. Anyone attempting to control millions must divide them into classes, and make a plan applying to these classes. But these classes do not exist. No two persons are alike. No two are in the same circumstances; no two have the same abilities; beyond getting the barest necessities of life, no two have the same desires.Therefore the men who try to enforce, in real life, a planned economy that is their theory, come up against the infinite diversity of human beings.

But people who think in categories…and rigid categories, at that….tend to communicate in those same categories.  Which may not always be to their interest.

Your thoughts?

SARS-CoV2/COVID-19 Update 02 March 2020

The themes of this update will be on issues of COVID-19 spread, World Headlines, Major COVID-19 medical developments, the Washington State COVID-19 outbreak and its implications, and the social media and videos COVID-19 tracking source section.
 
Top line, There are currently 89,788 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide, including 3,061 fatalities as of the 2 March 2020 at 7:03 a.m. ET time hack on the BNO News corona virus traking site (https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/) There are 65(+) and growing nations including China plus three “Chinese special administrative regions” (Macao, Hong Kong and Taiwan) that have reported COVID-19 infections. China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Italy, Iran, Germany, R.O.K.and the USA all appear to have local, or endemic, spread of the disease.
 
World Headline Summary (As of late evening 3/1/2020):
 
o Global virus deaths hit 3,000 as China reports another 42
o NY State confirms 1st case of Covid-19
o Rhode island announces “presumptive” case; patient recently visited Italy
o Washington State confirms 2 more cases
o 2 new cases confirmed in California
o Israel case total hits 10 day before vote
o South Korea death toll hits 22
o Germany case total doubles in 24 hours to 129
o Mexico case total climbs to 5
o White House to hold meeting tomorrow with 8 pharma CEOs
o Italy reports 42% jump in cases overnight to nearly 1,700
o France reports 30 new cases, bringing total to 130
o Czech Republic, Dominican Republic report first cases
o Chinese health officials report first ‘double lung’ transplant connected to virus case
o Iraq, Bahrain confirm 6 new cases; Lebanon confirms 3
o 6 being tested in NYC for coronavirus
o South Korea confirms 18th death, officials seek murder charges for founder of church at epicenter of outbreak
o American Physical Society cancels major scientific conference
o Juventus quarantines U23 squad [Professional Soccer/football in Europe]
o Iran death toll hits 54 as Trump offers aid
o Thailand, Australia report first deaths
o Spain case count hits 73; France hits 100
o Independent scientist says it could have been spreading in WA for six weeks, with hundreds infected [Much more below]
o Italian cases number more than 1,100; South Korea reports more than 3,700
o Italian death toll hits 29 [with a 9% serious case rate]
o Luxembourg reports first cases, says it’s linked to Italy
o UK cases rise to 35 as 12 new cases confirmed; 2 cases infected inside UK
o UK health secretary says China-style lockdowns “an option”
 

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