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  • It May Not Matter

    Posted by Jonathan on June 10th, 2016 (All posts by )

    Via Instapundit, this Weekly Standard piece on the next Hezbollah-Israel war is a bit naive. Yes, it is wise for Israel to make preemptive PR efforts to justify its self-defense against the missile attacks that Hezbollah will certainly launch from densely populated civilian areas in any future war, with the intent of maximizing civilian casualties for propaganda purposes. However, a USA that is led by a Democratic administration that is at best lukewarm about Israel, and that may be predisposed to seek accommodations from Israel’s enemies, will not necessarily do much to help Israel in such an event. Obama was obviously hostile to Israel during the 2014 Gaza war, even though he was careful not to say so publicly and to frame his anti-Israel actions in deniable terms. Would a Hillary administration, anchored as Obama’s is in far-left Democratic Party politics, be much better? It might be, since Obama’s anti-Israel/anti-Jewish animus is extreme for an American president, and he was trying to appease Iran for much of his presidency. Hillary is unlikely to be so eager to accommodate Israel’s (and America’s) enemies. OTOH, the US Left is now thoroughly hostile to Israel as well as to any US action to protect its traditional overseas interests. So, who knows.


    16 Responses to “It May Not Matter”

    1. Mike K Says:

      Bernie is stacking the Dims platform committee with really hostile types.

    2. Grurray Says:

      We need to let them know loud and clear that all their leaders have big fat targets on their heads. They’ll be taking a big gamble just going anywhere, like this unlucky jerk

      In the 1980s, Mr. Badreddine was charged and jailed, under an alias, in Kuwait for involvement in the 1983 bombings at the American and French embassies. Those attacks came just months after massive truck bombings at the U.S. Marines and French army barracks in Beirut that killed 241 U.S. and 58 French servicemen, attacks in which U.S. and Lebanese officials believe Mr. Badreddine also played a role.

      Good riddance.

      We have leverage in the Syrian conflict. Whatever the outcome, it must be understood that the ultimate price will be retribution for past and future offenses against both Israel and the United States.

      You make a good point though. That will never happen with Hillary in office.

    3. Will Says:

      Modern technology will allow for a live up-link from whatever facility she’ll be housed in. Perhaps they’ll three way (no jokes please) with Huma if she’s not at the same address. It’ll be just like the heyday of the Five Families, run the operation out of the big house! In fact, she’s just been endorsed by the Chicago scofflaw who’s successfully run the biggest con game in U.S. history.

      But seriously, I just know that Bibi and Vlad have the goods on these mf’s. I hope they find a way to spill the beans and save the planet.

    4. PenGun Says:

      Israel is indeed between a rock and a hard place. Hizbollah exists to fight Israel, that is it’s purpose, and it was born in the Israeli occupation of Lebanon.

      Israel did not win the last war and was forced to withdraw, it was essentially a draw. This has created moral problems in Israel, as well as the situation you have now.

      Hizbollah has battle hardened troops, far more experience that before, and a crap load of missiles. It’s likely the Israeli army, which has few battle hardened troops, little recent experience, but some nice weapons, will get it’s ass handed to it in any initial engagements. With the rain of missiles and initial failures, there will be huge problems for Israel. I imagine the US will eventually get involved, especially if Israel starts to lose aircraft.

      Because the US, the Saudis and the west in general, has repeatedly threatened ‘plan B’ in Syria, that’s supplying modern anti air to the ‘good rebels’, we are starting to see advanced anti air showing up in Assad’s grasp, and others on his side. The Kurds for one have shot down Turkish helicopters with a Chinese copy of Russian anti air.

      It’s likely Israel will lose aircraft, how many is hard to guess at. One could speculate, but it will not be like any previous conflict Israel has faced.

    5. Mike K Says:

      ” it will not be like any previous conflict Israel has faced.”

      Every war they have fought was a war of survival. The next one may take out Iran.

      It would be interesting if Obama tried to direct the US military to protect Iran.

    6. PenGun Says:

      “Every war they have fought was a war of survival. The next one may take out Iran.”

      Which is not really true, certainly Lebanon was an Israeli strategic decision.

      Anyway if ‘take out Iran’ means nuking it, then you might want to think a little further down that path. If not, then it’s hard to understand.

      Israel has never faced as dangerous an opponent as Hizbollah, and that’s in it’s ability to seriously hurt Israeli civilians and expertly oppose their armed forces. Neither of which was ever true before, although the 2006 war revealed the utility of Hizbollah’s combat training.

    7. Grurray Says:

      Hezbollah’s origins were in the early 70s within the PLO in Lebanon. Shia operatives and militants working on overthrowing the Shah used the cover of the Palestinian militant camps and diplomatic papers to train for and plan the Iranian Revolution. When the Lebanese war broke out in the mid 70s, Hezbollah became a fully formed organization.

      You remember the mid 70s right Pengun? Meditating with the Maharishi in your geodesic dome and whatnot.

      It makes sense since the PLO were the original 4th Gen warfare non-state actors. What a scourge on humanity they were. The gift that keeps on giving.

      Here’s something really weird about Hezbollah. They stole their logo from the famous Zionist movie about the creation of Israel, Exodus.

      I’m not sure what the meaning of it is, but here is the movie’s classic theme song to help contemplate it:

    8. PenGun Says:

      “You remember the mid 70s right Pengun? Meditating with the Maharishi in your geodesic dome and whatnot.

      It makes sense since the PLO were the original 4th Gen warfare non-state actors. What a scourge on humanity they were. The gift that keeps on giving.”

      I have been a Buddhist since 1968. The Maharishi was really a bit of a joke as far as I could tell, at the time.

      Certainly the PLO is a non state actor, they had their state stolen so, not much choice there. As for gifts, had Israel not invaded Lebanon Hizbollah would not exist. Keeps on giving, is right on. ;)

    9. PenGun Says:

      “If the IDF’s conduct of war against Hamas in Gaza is any indication, the IDF will go far beyond the requirements of the international laws of armed conflict to try to protect civilian life in Lebanon.”

      This is the thinking that is just so hard to understand.

      “In March 2015, OCHA reported that 2,220 Palestinians had been killed, of whom 1,492 were civilians (551 children and 299 women), 605 militants and 123 of unknown status.”

      Israel will happily kill anyone who is in the way. Hizbollah understands this well.

    10. Mike K Says:

      “they had their state stolen”

      Yes, just like the East Prussians and the Sudeten Germans had their states “stolen.”

      It’s a problem. If you start a war and lose it, bad things happen to you. Ask the Hiroshimans.

      The Israeli -Iran war was predicted by CSIS back in 2007 by Tony Cordesman.

      At the time he said it would end Persia as a nation state.

      Of course, since then Iran has acquired Obama as an ally and the cost would probably be terrible.

    11. Grurray Says:

      There was never a state called Palestine. Here is a map of Ottoman controlled Levant from the mid 1800s to World War I. Israel was given certain degree of autonomy and designated the Sanjak of Jerusalem because of increased Zionist settlers and Christian pilgrims, such as Mark Twain who wrote in his travelogue Innocents Abroad in 1867 that the region was otherwise desolate and abandoned

      Nazareth is forlorn. Jericho the accursed lies a moldering ruin today, even as Joshua’s miracle left it more than three thousand years ago: Bethlehem and Bethany, in their poverty and their humiliation, have nothing about them now to remind one that they once knew the high honor of the Savior’s presence; the hallowed spot where the shepherds watched their flocks by night, and where the angels sang, “Peace on earth, good will to men,” is untenanted by any living creature… Bethsaida and Chorzin have vanished from the earth, and the “desert places” round about them, where thousands of men once listened to the Savior’s voice and ate the miraculous bread, sleep in the hush of a solitude that is inhabited only by birds of prey and skulking foxes

      Aside from the sparse countryside, the actual number of Muslims in Jerusalem in the 1800s is in dispute. Some reports clearly state that Jews were in fact the majority early on, such as this one from 1874.

    12. Tuvea Says:

      I wasn’t aware that there ever was a nation-state named “Palestine”.

      Perhaps the ever arrogant and smug moron named PenGun can enlighten us all by pointing us to a map or history book showing the exact location, borders and dates of existence for such an entity. It is impossible to steal something that never existed.

    13. Grurray Says:

      Remember after Israel declared its independence in 1948 it was attacked by the neighboring Arab countries. Egypt annexed Gaza and Jordan annexed the West Bank. They didn’t use that land to create a state called Palestine.

    14. PenGun Says:

      “Yes, just like the East Prussians and the Sudeten Germans had their states “stolen.””

      This was to illustrate the, ‘non state actor’ accusation. Yup they they don’t have one, thanks everyone.

      Tony Cordesman is a moron. It was only a week ago, or so, I called him that, on CSIS where he hangs his hat.

    15. Mike K Says:

      “Tony Cordesman is a moron.”

      Your brilliance astounds me. No doubt others are equally impressed. Or not, as the case may be,

      Notice the troll does not provide any argument. Trolls usually out themselves.

    16. PenGun Says:

      “Your brilliance astounds me. No doubt others are equally impressed. Or not, as the case may be,”

      Have you read any of his recent stuff? The old man is losing it. Accused the Syrian government of fighting with more opponents than any other actor there … well duh. It was a thoughtless slam to achieve some kind of put down of Assad. Propaganda is what he and CSIS do, along with self-aggrandization.