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  • China and Hong Kong are coming to some sort of decision.

    Posted by Michael Kennedy on August 29th, 2019 (All posts by )

    The Hong Kong demonstrations are still going on.

    Now, The CCP has been sending troops into the city, saying it is just a troop “rotation” but no photos of troops leaving have been seen.

    Michael Yon, who covered Iraq and Afghanistan, is onscene.

    He is also watching both Koreas. He considers neither trustworthy.

    The proximate cause of the Korea-Japan “dispute” is Korean cultural weakness that magnifies, amplifies, fertilizes any paper cut into gangrene. The USA and Japan must be prepared to amputate South Korea. The day is coming.

    Korea has an unstable mind and culture. Korean Lives Matter: they create drama from thin air. Drama Queen, meet Drama Korea.

    Korea (North and South) is the proximate cause of the disputes between Koreans, Americans, Japanese. The proximate cause is a volatile and primitive Korean culture.

    The ultimate cause of the disputes is China. Core China culture runs Korea as a barnyard animal.

    As for Hong Kong, Strategic Elegance: “Home Depot says suppliers are moving manufacturing out of China to avoid tariffs”

    Some of the jobs probably moving to countries like Taiwan and Vietnam.

    Think about this for a moment:

    1) China loses jobs, and thus economic clout and expansion money. Some Chinese workers likely become unemployed…while China is having some food supply problems (true extent unknown to me).

    2) Chinese jobs move to other countries that we can get along great with, such as Taiwan. Taiwan grows economy, becomes tighter with USA, and buys US goods (including weapons) as economy increases. US weapons can be used to blunt China’s false claims in Taiwan.

    3) Taiwan and others buying more US goods (including weapons) increases American jobs and economy, which helps fund “the wall.”

    Win win win for the good guys and gals. Lose lose lose for CCP.

    Hold strong Hong Kong! Hong Kong does not have to beat CCP — only outlive.

    We are entering very dangerous times and the media sees only the politics of 2020.

    Watch that Steve Bannon video at SDA. He thinks that if the CCP goes into Hong Kong to do another Tiananmen Square, the CCP will collapse.

     

    29 Responses to “China and Hong Kong are coming to some sort of decision.”

    1. Brian Says:

      They’re not going to Tiananmen Square the protestors, they’re just going to disappear anyone who appears to be a leader until the protests stop. I have no idea if that will work, but my guess is yes, eventually.
      I find it mind boggling that in 2019 there is still a very active faction of conservatives who are in favor of military action in Iraq and Syria, and sanctions against Iran, while vehemently opposed to any economic action against China.

    2. ColoComment Says:

      …speaking of food supply.

      Didn’t someone famous once say (likely apocryphally), “Let them eat cake,” when the peasants had no bread?

      …and then “some people did something.”

      I wonder what China is doing to keep its domestic markets quiet and content if its government-subsidized buildings and highways are empty, middle-class jobs are departing for Vietnam and elsewhere, and prices of an animal-protein staple are exploding? Also, if it’s a porcine disease that’s the cause (rather than a temporary interruption in supply chain), it will take multiple years to re-grow the domestic pork industry. …not good for the domestic happiness quotient.

      https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-29/ive-never-seen-anything-china-reels-pork-prices-explode-record-levels

      “Eat Mor Chikin”?

    3. CapitalistRoader Says:

      Home Depot says suppliers are moving manufacturing out of China to avoid tariffs.

      That’s going to take years if not a decade. Longer than an American presidential election cycle.

    4. Gavin Longmuir Says:

      So instead of running an unsustainable trade deficit with China, we will run an unsustainable trade deficit with Vietnam? And this is called progress?

      Unless we start bringing industrial capacity and jobs back to the US and getting the US Balance of Payments deficit sorted out, we are sunk. We have concerns about China, which provides the computer chips required to get the US Air Force planes into the air. Mr. Yon sees problems with South Korea, which provides the flat screens essential for so many US military applications. The “good news” is that some production is moving to Taiwan — which Mainland China regards as their territory and will some day take back control. China has demonstrated in the US that it is just so easy to buy politicians!

      This is reminiscent of the 1930s. Everyone can see the problem coming, but most of us (and apparently almost all our politicians and 100% of our business leaders) are sticking heads into the sand. Remember how that refusal to look the facts in the face worked out for everyone in the 1930s & 40s? The difference is that then the US was the Workshop of the World — and now China is.

    5. MCS Says:

      China has no large scale IC production yet. They want it and are working on it but are having to start from the ground up. None of the established players are about to move production and technology there so it can be stolen. Taiwan is another case entirely, they have the most to lose if China manages its usual.
      https://www.semiconductor-digest.com/2019/06/14/can-we-believe-the-hype-about-chinas-domestic-ic-production-plans/

      I’ve never come across anything except small scale and discrete commodities like 2n2222 transistors that cost less than a penny. Quality is very uneven. Oh, counterfeits too.

      China does a lot of packaging which is connecting the dice produced elsewhere to the lead frames and encapsulating it. This is mass scale but low tech. This is where a lot of the counterfeits come from. A secret second shift that uses rejected or fake dice in legit looking packages.

      At least so far the Intels and such have managed to keep their IP out of China.

    6. Gavin Longmuir Says:

      MCS — Thanks for that link. One quote from that article suggests that the IC horse is already out of the barn.

      “TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, Intel, and other foreign companies that have IC wafer fabs located in China produced the rest.”

      One wonders what constitutes a “foreign company” anymore in this globalized world. GM makes & sells more cars in China than in the US. The streets of Chinese cities are full of shiny new Buicks. Are we kidding ourselves if we think of GM as an American company?

      It seems that Western universities are already very heavily dependent on graduate students from China, especially in technical disciplines. The next generation of technology is likely to have a strong Chinese flavor. There may be differences of opinion about how rapidly the water level is rising, but there is no doubt that the tide is coming in.

    7. MCS Says:

      I would be surprised if the companies with the fabs there are allowing their most important and advanced tech into China. This would be really stupid, but, I find I am surprised too often by the stupidity of the masters of the universe.

      On a slightly different tack, I just read that Klaus Fuchs that gave the A and H-bombs to the Russians, probably did the same for China after the Brits let him out of jail and deported him to the GDPR.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klaus_Fuchs

      I think some sort of Russia-China conflict is on the horizon. Most of the resources that China needs are in Siberia and Russia doesn’t have the ability to either exploit them or protect them. Remember that Japan didn’t get serious about attacking America until we cut off their scrap metal supply.

    8. miguel cervantes Says:

      slightly different sourcing, and ted hall, probably was closer with the more critical research,

      https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/chinese-nuclear-program

      yes, the bear and the dragon, will contest the eastern region, the latter with more ruthlessness then the Japanese regime,

    9. MCS Says:

      That was a good link. Fuchs was in jail until 1959. I noticed the now familiar trope of Western educated sons returning home.

      One of Fuchs’s ironies is that he was also the father of the British bomb. We cut them off in 1946 from information, Fuchs filled in a lot of blanks.

    10. Bill Brandt Says:

      I have wondered for years the effect Hong Kong would have on mainland China. How they could allow it to be free and yet part of them.

      But I also don’t see how quelling the rebellion will cause the CCP to dissolve.

      He who has the guns…

      Remember Tiananmen Square – they simply deny it happened.

      Now, something I never read about but have a good friend from Hong Kong with family there…

      If I am remember him him correctly, because of the non-extradition promise some dubious mainland Chinese have moved to Hong Kong – and the Chinese are simply trying to bring someone back for trial.

    11. Bill Brandt Says:

      On a slightly different tack, I just read that Klaus Fuchs that gave the A and H-bombs to the Russians, probably did the same for China after the Brits let him out of jail and deported him to the GDPR.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klaus_Fuchs

      @MCS – I read something even more maddening. The Chinese learned a lot simply going to Los Alamos and reading some old non-classified material.

    12. Grurray Says:

      That reminds me of the story of the trucker from Milwaukee who reverse engineered the original A-bombs. It’s surprisingly easy you do. The hard part is making the fuel.

    13. Trent Telenko Says:

      The unavoidable disaster awaiting the Chinese Communist party vis a’ vis Hong Kong is that 90% of all the financing of Chinese foreign trade (imports and exports) is done through Hong Kong.

      When, not if, the CCP smashes Hong Kong. _All_ that financing will temporarily collapse for six-months or a year. This means a massive short-term disruption of most to almost all of China’s foreign trade and it will take some years to reestablish the financial services Hong Kong currently supplies.

      And please note that it is -not- just from HK banks, brokerages & related financial businesses collapsing. It is the rebellious HK financial workforce.

      During the coming crack down some of this skilled HK population will be killed, some will rabbit to exile, and some number will be sent to the gulag in the aftermath of the crack down. And finally, a significant remainder would either not work or use slow-down tactics.

      My guess is that it will take a 18 months to get back to 56%-to-60% of “normal” and five years to get back to the level of financial services China has right now.

      This is long enough for the world to abandon China as a manufacturing source…if it wants too.

    14. MCS Says:

      The gun type uranium bomb was simple, the problem was that Little Boy used all of the enriched uranium we had. The design wouldn’t work for plutonium.

      Fat Man was about a five foot sphere, the actual pit was about the size of a grape fruit. The implosion mechanism was vastly more complicated than Little Boy’s gun mechanism that was an actual cut down artillery piece. My understanding is that all of our present operational weapons are plutonium implosion devices. Modern weapons use a great deal less fissionable material and a much more complicated explosive trigger that ironically makes it much harder to initiate fission but easier to insure that anything like a fire or shock will not.

      I wouldn’t expect the North Koreans to worry much about the safety aspect, but it also directly relates to producing a warhead small and light enough to deliver and robust enough to survive re-entry.

      Once the feasibility of the bomb was known, it came down to engineering. There were a huge number of people involved and it was inevitable that information would leak out.

      As an example: I can make a guess as to how big the pits in modern weapons are because I happened to visit a shop in Amarillo that was doing a job for Pantex. They were using a water jet to cut out some rather interesting shapes from plywood. I could guess what they were for because I had seen footage on the local TV about the work Pantex was doing, decommissioning warheads and placing the pits in storage. I figured that they were using plywood because there would be few heavy elements to cause problems from radiation. Of course, they could have been making parts for office furniture.

    15. Subotai Bahadur Says:

      Trent:

      I would also note that in other large cities in China there are a lot of westerners, in financial and other fields. Most are gonna want to beat feet out of there if the tanks roll. That will have an additional effect beyond HK itself which would slow the Chinese economy further. It will take time to convince them to come back, and depending on the nature of the slaughter, there may be an expulsion of Chinese nationals from western countries.

      The “Mandate of Heaven” is on shakier ground than it has been for decades in China. There is a large male cohort that will never form families, with the instability of that. As I understand it, the efforts to restrict population growth have been too successful, so that they are going to have similar problems as the West, with too few to support an aging population. An economic slowdown, plus food supply problems mean things are going to enter interesting times internally.

      I am not saying that any sort of freedom will come to China. In fact probably the opposite. And since China historically breaks up into separate mutually hostile polities until reunified, there will probably be several versions of China to deal with. The question is, who gets some or all of China’s nukes. Good Times.

      Subotai Bahadur

    16. Bill Brandt Says:

      @Trent – I had not thought of that angle before, but it makes perfect sense. Personally I want nothing to do with them.

      « Of Roaches, Bedbugs and Old MediaSummer Rerun: Lewis vs Haldane »
      China and Hong Kong are coming to some sort of decision.

      Posted by Michael Kennedy on August 29th, 2019 (All posts by Michael Kennedy)

      The Hong Kong demonstrations are still going on.

      Now, The CCP has been sending troops into the city, saying it is just a troop “rotation” but no photos of troops leaving have been seen.

      Michael Yon, who covered Iraq and Afghanistan, is onscene.

      He is also watching both Koreas. He considers neither trustworthy.

      The proximate cause of the Korea-Japan “dispute” is Korean cultural weakness that magnifies, amplifies, fertilizes any paper cut into gangrene. The USA and Japan must be prepared to amputate South Korea. The day is coming.

      Korea has an unstable mind and culture. Korean Lives Matter: they create drama from thin air. Drama Queen, meet Drama Korea.

      Korea (North and South) is the proximate cause of the disputes between Koreans, Americans, Japanese. The proximate cause is a volatile and primitive Korean culture.

      The ultimate cause of the disputes is China. Core China culture runs Korea as a barnyard animal.

      As for Hong Kong, Strategic Elegance: “Home Depot says suppliers are moving manufacturing out of China to avoid tariffs”

      Some of the jobs probably moving to countries like Taiwan and Vietnam.

      Think about this for a moment:

      1) China loses jobs, and thus economic clout and expansion money. Some Chinese workers likely become unemployed…while China is having some food supply problems (true extent unknown to me).

      2) Chinese jobs move to other countries that we can get along great with, such as Taiwan. Taiwan grows economy, becomes tighter with USA, and buys US goods (including weapons) as economy increases. US weapons can be used to blunt China’s false claims in Taiwan.

      3) Taiwan and others buying more US goods (including weapons) increases American jobs and economy, which helps fund “the wall.”

      Win win win for the good guys and gals. Lose lose lose for CCP.

      Hold strong Hong Kong! Hong Kong does not have to beat CCP — only outlive.

      We are entering very dangerous times and the media sees only the politics of 2020.

      Watch that Steve Bannon video at SDA. He thinks that if the CCP goes into Hong Kong to do another Tiananmen Square, the CCP will collapse.

      This entry was posted on Thursday, August 29th, 2019 at 5:49 pm and is filed under China, Current Events, National Security. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.
      15 Responses to “China and Hong Kong are coming to some sort of decision.”

      Brian Says:
      August 29th, 2019 at 10:24 pm
      They’re not going to Tiananmen Square the protestors, they’re just going to disappear anyone who appears to be a leader until the protests stop. I have no idea if that will work, but my guess is yes, eventually.
      I find it mind boggling that in 2019 there is still a very active faction of conservatives who are in favor of military action in Iraq and Syria, and sanctions against Iran, while vehemently opposed to any economic action against China.

      ColoComment Says:
      August 30th, 2019 at 10:12 am
      …speaking of food supply.

      Didn’t someone famous once say (likely apocryphally), “Let them eat cake,” when the peasants had no bread?

      …and then “some people did something.”

      I wonder what China is doing to keep its domestic markets quiet and content if its government-subsidized buildings and highways are empty, middle-class jobs are departing for Vietnam and elsewhere, and prices of an animal-protein staple are exploding? Also, if it’s a porcine disease that’s the cause (rather than a temporary interruption in supply chain), it will take multiple years to re-grow the domestic pork industry. …not good for the domestic happiness quotient.

      https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-29/ive-never-seen-anything-china-reels-pork-prices-explode-record-levels

      “Eat Mor Chikin”?

      CapitalistRoader Says:
      August 30th, 2019 at 10:31 am
      Home Depot says suppliers are moving manufacturing out of China to avoid tariffs.

      That’s going to take years if not a decade. Longer than an American presidential election cycle.

      Gavin Longmuir Says:
      August 30th, 2019 at 11:06 am
      So instead of running an unsustainable trade deficit with China, we will run an unsustainable trade deficit with Vietnam? And this is called progress?

      Unless we start bringing industrial capacity and jobs back to the US and getting the US Balance of Payments deficit sorted out, we are sunk. We have concerns about China, which provides the computer chips required to get the US Air Force planes into the air. Mr. Yon sees problems with South Korea, which provides the flat screens essential for so many US military applications. The “good news” is that some production is moving to Taiwan — which Mainland China regards as their territory and will some day take back control. China has demonstrated in the US that it is just so easy to buy politicians!

      This is reminiscent of the 1930s. Everyone can see the problem coming, but most of us (and apparently almost all our politicians and 100% of our business leaders) are sticking heads into the sand. Remember how that refusal to look the facts in the face worked out for everyone in the 1930s & 40s? The difference is that then the US was the Workshop of the World — and now China is.

      MCS Says:
      August 30th, 2019 at 7:47 pm
      China has no large scale IC production yet. They want it and are working on it but are having to start from the ground up. None of the established players are about to move production and technology there so it can be stolen. Taiwan is another case entirely, they have the most to lose if China manages its usual.
      https://www.semiconductor-digest.com/2019/06/14/can-we-believe-the-hype-about-chinas-domestic-ic-production-plans/

      I’ve never come across anything except small scale and discrete commodities like 2n2222 transistors that cost less than a penny. Quality is very uneven. Oh, counterfeits too.

      China does a lot of packaging which is connecting the dice produced elsewhere to the lead frames and encapsulating it. This is mass scale but low tech. This is where a lot of the counterfeits come from. A secret second shift that uses rejected or fake dice in legit looking packages.

      At least so far the Intels and such have managed to keep their IP out of China.

      Gavin Longmuir Says:
      August 31st, 2019 at 11:43 am
      MCS — Thanks for that link. One quote from that article suggests that the IC horse is already out of the barn.

      “TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, Intel, and other foreign companies that have IC wafer fabs located in China produced the rest.”

      One wonders what constitutes a “foreign company” anymore in this globalized world. GM makes & sells more cars in China than in the US. The streets of Chinese cities are full of shiny new Buicks. Are we kidding ourselves if we think of GM as an American company?

      It seems that Western universities are already very heavily dependent on graduate students from China, especially in technical disciplines. The next generation of technology is likely to have a strong Chinese flavor. There may be differences of opinion about how rapidly the water level is rising, but there is no doubt that the tide is coming in.

      MCS Says:
      August 31st, 2019 at 3:12 pm
      I would be surprised if the companies with the fabs there are allowing their most important and advanced tech into China. This would be really stupid, but, I find I am surprised too often by the stupidity of the masters of the universe.

      On a slightly different tack, I just read that Klaus Fuchs that gave the A and H-bombs to the Russians, probably did the same for China after the Brits let him out of jail and deported him to the GDPR.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klaus_Fuchs

      I think some sort of Russia-China conflict is on the horizon. Most of the resources that China needs are in Siberia and Russia doesn’t have the ability to either exploit them or protect them. Remember that Japan didn’t get serious about attacking America until we cut off their scrap metal supply.

      Miguel Cervantes Says:
      August 31st, 2019 at 4:21 pm
      slightly different sourcing, and ted hall, probably was closer with the more critical research,

      https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/chinese-nuclear-program

      yes, the bear and the dragon, will contest the eastern region, the latter with more ruthlessness then the Japanese regime,

      MCS Says:
      August 31st, 2019 at 5:17 pm
      That was a good link. Fuchs was in jail until 1959. I noticed the now familiar trope of Western educated sons returning home.

      One of Fuchs’s ironies is that he was also the father of the British bomb. We cut them off in 1946 from information, Fuchs filled in a lot of blanks.

      Bill Brandt Says:
      September 2nd, 2019 at 12:36 am
      I have wondered for years the effect Hong Kong would have on mainland China. How they could allow it to be free and yet part of them.

      But I also don’t see how quelling the rebellion will cause the CCP to dissolve.

      He who has the guns…

      Remember Tiananmen Square – they simply deny it happened.

      Now, something I never read about but have a good friend from Hong Kong with family there…

      If I am remember him him correctly, because of the non-extradition promise some dubious mainland Chinese have moved to Hong Kong – and the Chinese are simply trying to bring someone back for trial.

      Bill Brandt Says:
      September 2nd, 2019 at 12:39 am
      On a slightly different tack, I just read that Klaus Fuchs that gave the A and H-bombs to the Russians, probably did the same for China after the Brits let him out of jail and deported him to the GDPR.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klaus_Fuchs

      @MCS – I read something even more maddening. The Chinese learned a lot simply going to Los Alamos and reading some old non-classified material.

      Grurray Says:
      September 2nd, 2019 at 8:15 am
      That reminds me of the story of the trucker from Milwaukee who reverse engineered the original A-bombs. It’s surprisingly easy you do. The hard part is making the fuel.

      Trent Telenko Says:
      September 2nd, 2019 at 6:28 pm
      The unavoidable disaster awaiting the Chinese Communist party vis a’ vis Hong Kong is that 90% of all the financing of Chinese foreign trade (imports and exports) is done through Hong Kong.

      When, not if, the CCP smashes Hong Kong. _All_ that financing will temporarily collapse for six-months or a year. This means a massive short-term disruption of most to almost all of China’s foreign trade and it will take some years to reestablish the financial services Hong Kong currently supplies.

      And please note that it is -not- just from HK banks, brokerages & related financial businesses collapsing. It is the rebellious HK financial workforce.

      During the coming crack down some of this skilled HK population will be killed, some will rabbit to exile, and some number will be sent to the gulag in the aftermath of the crack down. And finally, a significant remainder would either not work or use slow-down tactics.

      My guess is that it will take a 18 months to get back to 56%-to-60% of “normal” and five years to get back to the level of financial services China has right now.

      This is long enough for the world to abandon China as a manufacturing source…if it wants too.

      MCS Says:
      September 2nd, 2019 at 7:51 pm
      The gun type uranium bomb was simple, the problem was that Little Boy used all of the enriched uranium we had. The design wouldn’t work for plutonium.

      Fat Man was about a five foot sphere, the actual pit was about the size of a grape fruit. The implosion mechanism was vastly more complicated than Little Boy’s gun mechanism that was an actual cut down artillery piece. My understanding is that all of our present operational weapons are plutonium implosion devices. Modern weapons use a great deal less fissionable material and a much more complicated explosive trigger that ironically makes it much harder to initiate fission but easier to insure that anything like a fire or shock will not.

      I wouldn’t expect the North Koreans to worry much about the safety aspect, but it also directly relates to producing a warhead small and light enough to deliver and robust enough to survive re-entry.

      Once the feasibility of the bomb was known, it came down to engineering. There were a huge number of people involved and it was inevitable that information would leak out.

      As an example: I can make a guess as to how big the pits in modern weapons are because I happened to visit a shop in Amarillo that was doing a job for Pantex. They were using a water jet to cut out some rather interesting shapes from plywood. I could guess what they were for because I had seen footage on the local TV about the work Pantex was doing, decommissioning warheads and placing the pits in storage. I figured that they were using plywood because there would be few heavy elements to cause problems from radiation. Of course, they could have been making parts for office furniture.

      Subotai Bahadur

    17. Anonymous Says:

      My apologies for the above mess. I don’t know whether it’s my iPhone when I tried to paste or something in the website but just the first paragraph is pertinent

      Subatai – I think that’s a pretty good historical analysis. In Sacramento we have a small historic town on the river called Locke. It came into being because the Chinese area in Walnut Grove, just a mile down the river, burned and the Chinese from one area did not like the Chinese from another area so they decided to move up the river

    18. Brian Says:

      I don’t understand the ChiCom’s thinking in Hong Kong. Why don’t they just say what they need to to appease them and stop the protests, then do all the disappearing, etc., slowly and under the radar? The Dems really want to say that Trump is crazy/evil/etc. to try to disengage from China in any way, by showing their true nature Beijing is going to drive more people to think that it’s actually a moral imperative. Do they think that there is zero chance of the West turning against them? Seems a bad bet. The Uighers are far from Western eyes, but Hong Kong can’t be hidden. The odds of a backlash may be very low–they’ve bought off enough people, after all–but they ain’t zero.

    19. Anonymous Says:

      Subotai: “I am not saying that any sort of freedom will come to China. In fact probably the opposite.”

      Depends what the meaning of “freedom” is, as Bill Clinton might have said. Personally, I have spent only a little time in China, but what my lying eyes saw was generally a pleasant orderly society that had a feel probably akin to the US prior to the upsets of the 1960s. People seemed to have a significant amount of freedom — choosing schools for their children, buying their own apartments, buying their own cars, shopping everywhere from back street barrow merchants to Walmart to Gucci, gambling in mah jong parlors, travelling both internally in China and internationally. Police presence was minimal, and generally unarmed. Crime seemed to be as uncommon as tattoos.

      I wonder what Chinese people think about our “freedom” when they read about poop & needles on the streets of San Francisco, Antifa riots in Portland under the protection of the city authorities, and officialdom ignoring the ongoing toll of murders in Chicago?

      It is a reasonable guess that, if they get the opportunity, the Lefties here in the US would stamp their boots in our faces with more vigor than the Communist rulers of China currently dare to do to their population.

    20. MCS Says:

      Brian’s point is apt. They’ve never had a problem playing the long game, wait until attention is elsewhere and then…

      What we may be seeing is the first sign that they think they are running out of time. There seem to be a lot of people that see the Chinese economy as sort of Jenga tower where the players are blindfolded in a darkened room, pulling the blocks out. Someone in Beijing may have slipped his blindfold off and not liked what he sees. He may see exploiting the wreckage of Hong Kong as less dangerous than letting them go.

      To any outside observer, Hong Kong and Taiwan are vital to China just the way they are. They form the interface between the regime and the outside world. Without them, the China we see today would never have gotten off the ground. Almost all of their value disappears the minute tanks start to roll or missiles start to fall. During the cold war, there were always a few westerners with the strong stomachs and selective attention to make some money in the Soviet Union. There were never enough to make a difference.

      China is working double time to catch up with the West but they still have a long way to go. An exodus of westerners in all sectors would be as devastating as a war. You hear about a lot of Chinese with resources, that seem to have their bags packed and tickets purchased, ready to leave on a moments notice. How many student visas will be converted to asylum requests?

    21. Grurray Says:

      To Brian’s point, Beijing tried, but it didn’t work. What initially sparked the protests was the proposed extradition law, and their puppet running Hong Kong killed that proposal back in July. Like so many other revolts, the initial spark wasn’t the real cause. Now the protesters are demanding democratic reforms, investigations of the police, and for Trump to come liberate them while they wave American flags.

    22. Mike K Says:

      An exodus of westerners in all sectors would be as devastating as a war.

      I have read a number of accounts by long term western residents of China who are leaving. Culture clash.

      One interesting phenomenon that might only be an anecdote; I know a number of well educated Chinese women who are marrying westerners, Caucasians. This used to be never done with Han Chinese. Maybe the selective abortion thing has convinced Chinese women they are no longer part of the team.

    23. Trent Telenko Says:

      Subotai Bahadur,

      When Hong Kong is suppressed by Chairman Xi. Pres. Trump is absolutely going to expel Mainland Chinese national from the H-1B program for Silicon Valley Tech companies.

      How many Mainland Chinese students are also expelled from American university right now is not knowable at this time. The number is currently something like 300,000 right now.

      However, there is no downside for Pres. Trump to go there.

      Kicking out Mainland Chinese students stops China’s funding of Pres. Trump’s domestic enemies.

    24. Trent Telenko Says:

      Mike K,

      When I read this:

      >>I have read a number of accounts by long term western residents of China who are leaving. Culture clash.

      The movie music theme for “Sand Pebbles” goes through my head.

      https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › The_Sand_Pebbles_(film)

      https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0060934/

    25. Trent Telenko Says:

      It appears that CCP Chairman for life XI is feeling a might…insecure…in 2019 compared to 2003.

      Which was the last time Hong Kong’s people flared up over CCP threats to their HK Charter freedoms.

      See:

      “Has China forgotten how order was restored to Hong Kong after the 2003 Article 23 national security protests?”

      David A. Rezvani
      Published: 9:00am, 3 Sep, 2019

      https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025171/has-china-forgotten-how-order-was-restored-hong-kong-after-2003

      “Instead of hardline tactics and threats of military intervention, Hu Jintao’s administration defused the crisis by collecting public opinion from Hong Kong directly, holding local leaders accountable and increasing economic reassurances”

    26. MCS Says:

      I don’t remember a lot of blow back from Tiananmen Square back in 89. American media had moved on before the last protester was washed down the storm drain. How different it will be this time, I don’t know. There are already stories wondering how much the “trade war” will interfere with black Friday.

      Apple has their big shindig next week, everything I read says to expect to be underwhelmed unless you’re a true believer. What happens to their share price if the new and the old phones can’t make it out of China? What about Wal-Mart,and a thousand other stores, big and small, or Amazon? Our European allies can be expected to contribute nothing useful.

      There will be more than enough pain to go around.

    27. Brian Says:

      I don’t think the move of so many US companies to China had really started yet when Tiananmen happened. I distinctly remember Clinton attacking Bush I in 1992 for being too soft on China afterwards, which of course is a sick joke as is everything to do with the Clintons. So I don’t think they had as much to lose wrt the opinion of the outside world as they do now.

    28. Trent Telenko Says:

      A whole lot has changed about China and Hong Kong between 1989 and 2019.

      These numbers kind a jumps out at you.

      1. According to the Ministry of Commerce of China, over 58 percent (around US$70 billion) of China’s nonfinancial outbound direct investment (ODI) flow went to Hong Kong in 2018. By the end of 2018, stock volume of China’s nonfinancial ODI in Hong Kong reached US$622 billion.[1] That amount was roughly 170 percent of Hong Kong’s GDP in the same year.

      2. By the end of 2018, in the mainland, the actually utilized foreign direct investment (FDI) from Hong Kong was US$1.1 trillion in stock, accounting for 54 percent of all FDI China has received from all over the world, according to the Ministry of Commerce of China.

      They came from this article:

      Why China Still Needs Hong Kong
      Tianlei Huang (PIIE)
      July 15, 2019 1:30 PM
      https://www.piie.com/blogs/china-economic-watch/why-china-still-needs-hong-kong

    29. MCS Says:

      Talk about killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.

      Divorced of all morality, the best anti-China strategy we could pursue would be to encourage them to come down as hard as possible on Hong Kong.

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