Frequent commenter at my site, Grimbeorn of Grim’s Hall, has had his novel come out, Arms and White Samite. We have both the Kindle and paperback versions in our cart, debating which we shall order. He is an interesting cat, for those who like variety: Army Ranger in both Iraq Wars who used his GI benefits to get a degree in philosophy. Long-bearded motorcyclist and Catholic convert. Georgia Democrat who eventually had to resign as they left him (echoing Reagan), between the last hurrahs of Zell Miller, then Jim Webb. Arthurian stories seem to be his first love.
Assistant Village Idiot
New Services
Cross-posted at Assistant Village Idiot
Delivered groceries were just coming in. Our local chains quickly became overwhelmed, and began only taking orders to be scheduled a week out. As many people, of any vulnerability category whatsoever, are going to prefer to order things online more and more, there will be more of these services and they will employ more people. I am not saying that your local supermarket is going to be obsolete, but hybrid forms are going to be more common.
This will also be true of restaurants. There will be more specialising in takeout, and even fabulous room-based chefs are going to star figuring out how to make meals that can move across town. We are not quite ready for the virtual reality of pairing meals with rented environments of “London 1898,” “Paris 1927,” and “NYC 1960,” but it’s not that far off, either.
No, of course it won’t be the same as actually being there, but as we can’t go there even in its modern form at the moment, and even when it comes back it will be very expensive, there will be a market. Here’s the fun part: there will be a market for Faux London, Faux Paris, Faux New York. In the same way that pizza and Italian food are not all that authentic, nor is Chinese food in America* very much what they eat in …Hunan, the VR market will cater to what people think is authentic. Chef Louis isn’t stupid. Anyone can quick-google what the rich actually did eat in London in 1898, but he will prepare what you think was authentic and will spend money on. Enterprising young souls will also figure out what the children will eat that you can advertise to them as Florence 1568 or Jerusalem AD 63, so you can make it a repeatable history lesson.
Our church is already planning to keep the online services going even after we can get together. This is not only because many of us will not want to go to the high risk of weekly contact in an enclosed area with 300 other people, some of them quite close, but because even after all that risk is reduced to as low as it’s going to get*, some folks will decide that staying home and clicking on the church’s Sunday menu is what they actually want. Compare, watching the NFL on TV versus going to the stadium. People increasingly view going to the stadium as an occasional adventure, while preferring to stay at home. Whoa. Maybe churches that provide replay, commentary, and analysis are going to start finding a niche!
What else is going to become delivery vs in-person going forward?
* I have read that the American version of Chinese food is now available in Chinese cities
**I think that means, even after a vaccine, two annual diseases that kill lots of people. Doesn’t that clearly imply a third and a fourth? We will live different from here on in.
Mutations
Note that Greg Cochran over at West Hunter remains pessimistic about life becoming safer. Mutations are of course already occurring in C19, just from the numbers. Most of those will be deleterious to the virus itself, or neutral. But sheer volume produces mutations that are also diseases, some lesser, some greater.
Previous Links on Genetics and Related
We have not talked much about genetics recently. These are people who know a great deal, but may not fully share your values.
The brilliant Steve Hsu over at Information Processing talks about an article in The Economist concerning embryo selection. November 2019.
Here is that article from The Economist Modern Genetics will improve health and usher in designer children. November 2019
Legal studies paper by Gail Herriot on school discipline policies. June 2019
Only some genetics in this last one. Scott Alexander over at Slate Star Codex, who Steve Sailer called the greatest public intellectual to emerge in the 2010s, talks about what intellectual progress he made during the decade. He started way ahead of me and I think has lapped me a couple of times since. A stunning variety of topics. January 2020.
Scrooge McDuck In Reverse
Perhaps this is the time to teach, or at least keep as an example, how an economy works, to those who believe that rich people got there by taking money that could have gone to a poor person in a fairer system. We are in a situation where money is being lost, and it isn’t going to anyone. Some people are not much affected, if whatever their income is based on is not interrupted. I am considered “essential personnel” and have work. I’m not sure I actually am essential, but they have to draw the line somewhere, and danger increases if the hospital as a whole does not do what it does. There may be a very few businesses that do better – online entertainments, delivery services. I can’t think of much else.
There will be some pent-up demand that comes upon businesses as restrictions are eased, as folks want to buy cars or go out to restaurants. But some of the non-buying today occurs because people now do not have jobs that are paying them, and they don’t have money to spend. The restaurants and car dealerships are not going to make that up later. The money is just gone. You can frame that as being lost or as being never created, but either way it’s just not there. It is relatively easy to destroy value.
I hope the lesson can be turned to show that it is difficult to create value.