For Roughnecks, It Ain’t Funny

Instapundit says:

CANDIDATES RUSH TO rescue oil companies: “With the price of petroleum having fallen from almost $150 per barrel last summer to about $81, the campaigns of both Barack Obama and John McCain rushed to outline their respective plans to rescue beleaguered oil companies from nose-diving profits and earnings.” Heh. It’s about time!

No offense to Glenn but the people working in the oil fields aren’t laughing. 

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Nuclear Power – Demolishing the Myth

In the media and in political circles there are debates on how electricity should be generated – while renewables are popular conceptually they don’t provide base load (reliable) power, and are responsible for a minuscule portion of our total electricity generation in the United States. In this fantasy “debate”, nuclear power has apparently had a mythical renaissance as public opinion among some greens notes that it emits little of the emissions that supposedly cause global warming.

Presidential candidates and others make pronouncements on nuclear power, such as John McCain’s call to build 45 nuclear reactors by 2030. Obama isn’t calling for a specific number of
nuclear plants, but doesn’t dismiss plans outright.

WHO CAN BUILD A PLANT

All of these discussions, and phony debates, ignore a critical element – nuclear plants don’t get built because politicians or activists want them (or even because we are running out of power) – nuclear plants get built:

1) when the regulatory climate in a particular state allows for recovery and financing of these costs
2) when individual utilities are financially strong enough to incur the debt and raise the cash to see through the 10+ year process from site selection through actually powering up the reactor and delivering power into the grid

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Nuclear Power in the US – Deader than Dead

Warren Buffett, the famed investor, owns a holding company named Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire Hathaway invests in a number of industries where Berkshire’s leadership believes that they can make money over the long term.

Berkshire Hathaway made a lot of its money in the insurance business (GEICO). They like the steady returns and solid, understandable business model behind insurance. Also, due to Berkshire Hathaway’s AAA rating (VERY few US companies have this rating), they have a very low cost of capital which gives them a significant cost advantage against competitors.

The US utility industry (electricity) is an area where Berkshire Hathaway has made investments over the years. Berkshire Hathway bought up a group of Iowa utilities (where I used to work) that were rolled up into a company called MidAmerican Energy. Berkshire Hathaway has a very long time horizon (other CEO’s have to hit immediate earnings targets and are impatient) and thus they can be opportunistic, holding on to their (vast) cash until the right target comes along. Berkshire Hathaway jumped on Pacificorp, which had previously been bought up by Enron, when Enron’s finances imploded.

Recently Berkshire Hathaway bought up Constellation Energy, which is the electrical utility with nuclear plants that serves Maryland and Baltimore. Constellation Energy had a large energy trading arm that was intertwined with Lehman; when Lehman went bankrupt Constellation was going to be forced to put up more collateral and faced a downgrade in their credit ratings. Their stock plunged from $100 / share in early 2008 to as low as $13 before Berkshire Hathaway agreed to buy them; the stock is now at $26 / share and the company is worth $4 – $5 billion.

Constellation Energy was one of the “dreamer” companies that was thinking about taking advantage of US government tax breaks to re-invest in nuclear power. As I have noted previously, don’t bet on any of these plants getting built (maybe TVA builds one and someone else another one; this is not going to even cover those plants at end-of-life and being retired from service, much less constitute a renaissance in nuclear power).

Per a September 26, 2008 Wall Street Journal Article titled “Buffett Could Reshape Nuclear Power Industry” –

“Warren Buffett’s decision to rescue Constellation Energy Group Inc. gives one of the nuclear power industry’s biggest skeptics some important clout in deciding its future.”

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